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Thread: 2018 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

  1. #3949
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    Quote Originally Posted by bloodspirit View Post

    Just recapping our outs: AJ, Hanners, Gaz, Newman, Styles, Brown, Foote, Towers and Tippett are gone. Have I missed anyone? Could be another 1-2 to go. That's a fair few. Just Clarke and Thurlow coming the other way. That's at least 5 senior spots freed up.

    If we draft 4 and upgrade Ronke that's 5 and we're back at 38 on our senior list. We'll have 3 rookie spots available.
    I count differently. Players off the senior list are Hannebery, Rohan, Towers, Tippett (probably), Newman and Foote. Players on are Clarke and Thurlow, giving a net loss of four players. So if the club intends to draft four new players and promote Ronke, they either need to cut one more or they need to increase the senior list to 39 (which they can do).

    I think one or both of Marsh and Robinson will be cut. I am indifferent as to which. I think they are both solid depth players who can contribute at senior level but are never going to be best 22. I think Marsh's best at senior level has been better than Robinson's but he's also been less consistent and the coaches seem to not have that much faith in him. I think we have more depth overall in his position, so he's probably next in line to get the chop.

    I'd keep Fox, and certainly keep him over Pink. If they keep him on the rookie list for a third year, great. If they want to keep him and that means having to promote him, so be it. Like Robinson and Marsh, I don't think he'll become a genuine best 22 player but he can fill a role, and is probably more versatile than either Robinson or Marsh.

    I don't understand why the club would keep Pink. He looks a mile off playing senior footy, even allowing for 2018 being close to a write-off for him. But I guess they might still see him as untapped potential. If they want to keep both Pink and Fox on the rookie list, that's achievable by delisting and redrafting one of them. If probabilities could be lower than zero, I'd hazard that the chance of Pink being rookie listed by another club would be whatever that probability is. But as they can't, I'll stick with zero. And if I'm wrong, and another club snuck in and nabbed him ahead of the Swans in the rookie list, I doubt it's a decision the club will be left rueing in a few years time.

    Edit: I think you might have been editing your post, including the bit I quoted, while I was typing my post. We probably now count the same, at least for senior players.


    As for rookies, we have two who I think the club has announced already will be retained - certainly Amartey is confirmed and Bell's retention has been implied. Silence thus far on Fox and Pink.


    If we stick with a senior list of 38, we can have a total of nine rookies - up to six Cat A and up to three Cat B. It's a long time since the club has run with a rookie list that long, but they are permitted to. I think Bell can remain as a Cat B rookie for another year (though I'm not 100% sure on that). So we have between two and five Cat A rookie spots available, and up to three Cat B rookie spots available (though with a total range of up to seven spots as Bell is kind of double counted).
    Last edited by liz; Yesterday at 07:27 PM.

  2. #3950
    Liz, we had 8 rookies this season:

    2
    Alex Johnson 194 92 02.03.92
    Ben Ronke 182 77 18.12.97
    James Bell 183 79 10.02.99
    Jake Brown 185 77 19.03.98
    Robbie Fox 185 85 16.04.93
    Angus Styles 185 71 03.05.99
    Joel Amartey 196 88
    Toby Pink 194 92 11.08.98

  3. #3951
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheGong View Post
    Liz, we had 8 rookies this season:

    2
    Alex Johnson 194 92 02.03.92
    Ben Ronke 182 77 18.12.97
    James Bell 183 79 10.02.99
    Jake Brown 185 77 19.03.98
    Robbie Fox 185 85 16.04.93
    Angus Styles 185 71 03.05.99
    Joel Amartey 196 88
    Toby Pink 194 92 11.08.98
    That's because we went in with just the two Cat B rookies. Presumably the club didn't think anyone else worthy and/or they had a view on the manageability of the list size. But we are allowed up to three.

  4. #3952
    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    Edit: I think you might have been editing your post, including the bit I quoted, while I was typing my post. We probably now count the same, at least for senior players.
    Actually I did make a mistake - I was overlooking that AJ had been sent back to the rookie list. So thanks for clearing that up. So, yes, reckon there will be at least one more senior delisting (tipping Marsh) and also a rookie.
    Last edited by liz; Today at 07:46 AM. Reason: fixed quotation formatting

  5. #3953
    Veterans List Ludwig's Avatar
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    We delisted Jake Brown, but is there anyone in our Academy we can draft this year who's a better prospect? I didn't think so watching some of the better ones, like Stern, Wicks and Stewart playing in the same games as Brown. I thought all were borderline selections and none were better than Brown.

  6. #3954
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ludwig View Post
    We delisted Jake Brown, but is there anyone in our Academy we can draft this year who's a better prospect? I didn't think so watching some of the better ones, like Stern, Wicks and Stewart playing in the same games as Brown. I thought all were borderline selections and none were better than Brown.
    I guess the thinking is that he's had an extra year in the system, including one year actually being a full-time footballer. (The U19 squad trains a lot with the senior squad but I guess it's not quite as intensive.) So he's had his chance to show he had improvement left in him (which he did, but maybe not enough).

    I agree none of those three has anything stand out about them that suggests they're capable of much, or any, more than Brown but maybe one or more deserves a chance. Stern does have some genuine pace about him, while I thought Stewart was the best performed of the year over the course of the NEAFL season.

    Reinhardt looks to be one who does have a bit of scope for improvement because he's taller (though not quite KPP height) and is still very lightly built.

    The club could cast the net a bit wider and look to recent graduates from the U18 and U19 academy programmes who've move to other clubs. There were a handful who got NEAFL rising star nominations in 2018 and others who had good seasons. I don't know whether the club retains the right to choose players like this as Cat B rookies though. I suspect not.

  7. #3955
    RWOs Black Sheep AnnieH's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ISIBIDBI View Post
    Not sure if anyone has seen Kinnear’s trade period summary but it was very interesting. Mentioned at the end that the Swans would look to move up the draft order with live pick trading if there is someone we rate really highly. Also said we were looking at taking 4 players in the draft including Blakey.
    If Kinnear says so, the four players we want will be little guns.
    I'm not worried, Kinnear knows what he's doing.
    Our list is very healthy now that a little dead wood has been burned.
    Wild speculation, unsubstantiated rumours, silly jokes and opposition delight in another's failures is what makes an internet forum fun.
    Blessed are the cracked for they are the ones who let in the light.

  8. #3956
    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    3 ex Swans received premiership medallions in the last 3 years. And a Brownlow.
    Not sure that will happen again from this years trading - so a win for me from this year
    Toby Nankervis.
    Lewis Jetta.
    ??? Who's the third one to win a p'ship? I've got no idea.

  9. #3957
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blood Tunnel View Post
    Toby Nankervis.
    Lewis Jetta.
    ??? Who's the third one to win a p'ship? I've got no idea.
    Biggs

  10. #3958
    Quote Originally Posted by R-1 View Post
    Here's my (co-authored) take for the ABC, based on our HPN work - Who won and lost the 2018 AFL Trade Period? - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

    It's not a glamorous trade period, but Sydney project well out of it in terms of total future expected value (there are graphs!).

    Clarke is a big piece of that. As a 21 year old with 40 games under his belt (even at a relatively low level of value to his team), history suggests he has a lot of footy ahead of him, probably more than Hannebery and Rohan combined (Thurlow barely figures and Newman might do a lot more at Carlton than he would have here).

    We have also upgraded our position in the next two drafts by a lot (that Saints 2nd rounder is a nice acquisition), basically expanding the probability we get good value out of it, and because draft position is all abstract probabilities, this is the thing observers tend to underrate.
    Great article, and I love the graphs! Def feeling a lot more positive about our trade period.

  11. #3959
    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    Biggs
    Thank you Liz.
    Totally forgot about him.

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