Even though we've heard very little of Ling, the club has expressed confidence with him as I do recall he signed a year extension? I remember last year post draft KB saying how impressed he was with Ling. KB gave impression they were hoping to pick him up with their 2nd round pick, but after Ling put on some break out late season performances was worried he'd be gone by then. KB was impressed with Ling's outside run & team oriented 2nd/3rd efforts.Originally Posted by waswan
Yet you're bagging Tom Harley for not being able to recruit a #65 pick (Langdon) and a rookie pick (VDB). Why would you criticize someone for failing to acquire a player that's not really worth much?
Heard a rumour that Shane Mumford is sniffing around for a comeback.
(BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA. I love it when I make myself laugh.)
Wild speculation, unsubstantiated rumours, silly jokes and opposition delight in another's failures is what makes an internet forum fun.
Blessed are the cracked for they are the ones who let in the light.
Teams that would want them are ones who need the points for a father son or academy pickup.
If you take out the trades, rookies, father-son, academy, zone or any other draft concession types, you'll find slim picking in the late 30's and above.
It'd be great to have the excitement of a big trade to talk about throughout summer. But, other than a key forward to team with Buddy, I'm not convinced we need it. Through injury we saw a lot of young talent step up in 2018.
I know the run to finals - and the final - were disappointing but was anyone surprised? We've always been told that the kids run out of puff at the end of the season and ours certainly did. Hopefully, they will all have matured by 2019 and we'll see them step up further - and for longer in 2019.
Even a year ago I don't know if I would have been just as excited to see Mills back as Smooch. McCartin showed great signs of potential this year and next year he'll have the trainer wheels off. Ronke burst onto the scene and faded out as the year progressed.
i'm a bit sad to see Towers leave but he was such a confidence player and we always had to carry him for a few weeks till he rose to the level where he was definitely in our Top 22. Who would have thought a finger in the eye would end an AFL career?
Historically, I'm sad to see Dan and Gary go and wish them well. But it certainly puts paid to the oft-run line that some players get game time they don't deserve. They fell off the pace - or never consistently delivered on potential - and they've gone. That's harsh. AJ is a tragedy and our ultimate response showed that AFL, even the Swans, is a business.
Finally, I don't think Horse is stupid. I think he devises a game plan to suit our players' strength. In many ways we have quite a new-look team and I expect a 2019 game plan to match. But I confidently expect the AFL media to say (into the indefinite future) that the Swans are slow and too defensive, just as they have been since 2003.
Roll on 2019.
Ludders, imagine you are in a game show, and there are three doors with only a prize behind one of them. You pick. 1 in 3 chance right.? Correct. Now, host eddie mcguire unveils one of the doors which he knows doesnt have a prize, then offers you the chance to switch doors (the other one that is left). Do you ? On the above comment, I assume you wouldnt.
But you should, because Eddie has offered to drop your odds from 1 in 3 to 1 in 2. Take it man!
The moral of the story is that Langdon was probably a 1 in 20 chance of being a decent player when picked at #65, but has shown enough now to be a pick 26 or there abouts. Eddie has shown you the other door!
None of those players I listed was a zone selection nor a FS (*). Current day FS and academy selections are bid upon where other clubs feel they sit in the pecking order, so if they're taken after wherever the "useful cut-off" is, they're still taken with later picks. And since the rookie draft comes at the end of the national draft, any player taken in the rookie draft is, by definition, a late draft pick.
The reason why the hit rate looks a bit higher from the rookie draft than the later rounds of the ND is purely a numbers game - ie clubs will typically take two or three players in the 3rd or later rounds of the national draft, but then might load up half a dozen or more rookies. Clubs need to churn through a fair number of players to find those who have what it takes to play senior AFL, so if you're churning through twice as many players via the rookie system as you are the later picks in the ND, in pure number terms you may uncover more rookies who last.
But clubs also have to churn through players taken earlier in the draft. There's no threshold where the likelihood of finding a good player suddenly drops off - or if there is, it's somewhere well within the top 10 picks. Johnston, DOK, Willougby, Towers, Lamb, Vezspremi and hosts of others taken by other clubs are testament to that.
In terms of clubs needing points, those who expect to have players bid upon in the first 20 or so picks have already shuffled their picks and points around. North and the Pies look a bit light on for points (but only marginally so) but neither holds a pick in the 20s. The one exception is the Bulldogs, who currently hold pick 27, likely to be pick 29-30 after earlier academy bids. They may see an advantage in trading that pick for a couple of ours that give them more points to match a bid on West. But I suspect a number of clubs will have their eye on that pick, and the Dogs may land up trading it down before draft night. As the Mase pointed out a week or so ago, the biggest value to the Swans comes in waiting until after Blakey has been drafted before trading up.
The cost of matching bids later in the draft isn't that high, and I reckon most, if not all, clubs will reckon they can easily match with what they have and won't see the need to trade down any picks in the 20s or 30s.
(*) One did slip onto my list, Naismith. But he's the only one.
You'd be wrong about that Barry. I'm an expert in the Monty Hall Problem and have often explained it to others.
This discussion about Harley and the fish that got away has nothing to do with door selection or probablities, but rather an internal contradiction in your logic.
Are you trying to use an argument that supports my point of view as a reason to dispute it?
Why do you want to argue anyway? RWO isn't as nice a place to be around anymore....
Tell me about it. I offer up a very insightful insight brought about by years of experience and a brain the size of trumps, and all they want to do is quibble about minor details.
Off season is like that.RWO isn't as nice a place to be around anymore....
You don't know that for sure. As has been already stated, we've obtained some absolute gems at pick 40 or higher.....have some faith.
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