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Thread: Swans players and talent

  1. #13
    Veterans List Ludwig's Avatar
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    It's difficult to project just where a player will end up before they've even played a senior game. We can just make a reasonable guess based on how similar players have fared once they did get several years of development. Some will do better than the early projections, some worse.

    The point I wanted to make is that we are effectively doing a complete rebuild of a top 8 side within around 7 years, just off the draft. That's a really fast rate. It means that in 4 or 5 years we could lose all of Parker, Hanners, JPK, Buddy, Reid, Rohan, KJ and a few others and still have a high quality team to challenge for a premiership who will mostly be in the prime age bracket of 23-29 yo.

    It's more about a group analysis than looking at any individual player. And how quickly are we replacing players leaving the club, for whaterver reason, with players of equal or better quality. Some clubs are going through a continual rebuild because even if they do draft or trade in quality players, it's never fast enough to replace the quality players leaving, so little progress is made. A 4 to 5 year rebuild, which is what Freo is supposedly going through, may not happen for 15 years, because by the time they start looking like a quality side, it's time for Nat Fyfe to hang up the boots.

    We are building a young team now that will seemlessly take over even when our stars like Buddy and JPK are ready to retire.

  2. #14
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    Ah Ludwig, the eternal Swans empire!

  3. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    Surely it's far too early to make a call on two players yet to debut - one is a second year KPD and the other a third year who has had to learn a new game (but has just earned himself an elevation to the senior list)?

    Bear in mind that Hewett, Newman, Aliir and Melican all spent two years in the NEAFL before they got their opportunities.
    I didn't make a call, I indicated I was comparatively pessimistic.

    Maibaum has had two full years and there aren't too many indications that he will challenge for a spot. I think those four you mentioned showed more in their first two years, aside from Melican who had injury issues. Maibaum has rarely been in the bests for the reserves, and while I understand that may be difficult for a defender in a weak competition, Melican and Aliir managed to impress. Maibaum was pushed forward a several times last year, which isn't a great sign (see here: Inside Football - AFL Player Ratings - Jack MAIBAUM).

    You'd think Rampe, Melican and Aliir are our tall defenders for the foreseeable future (once Grundy is retired in a couple of years) and at this stage it's hard to see Maibaum challenging them. There aren't too many other tall defenders aside from Maibaum, but I think 'depth' might be the best characterisation for him.

    I'd love to see O'Riordan do well - he's got the character for it, I reckon - and the club are giving him a shot this year. Again though, on the evidence it's hard to see him break-out to regularly challenge a decent defensive unit for a starting berth.

    I don't particularly relish making these points.

    For what it is worth, to balance the ledger, I reckon Stoddart might end up being 'starter'. Impressed with the glimpses I have seen already and he is the type of player we do need.

    Interesting exercise. I do think this year's draft crop are very promising. Can't wait to see Ling have a crack.

  4. #16
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    Maibaum has had one year, not two. He was our third pick in the 2016 draft, after Florent and Haywood.

    He did fine in his first year in the NEAFL. He didn't show anything to suggest he's guaranteed to make it, but he was more impressive than Aliir was in his first year (albeit he's a bit more dour in style than Aliir).

  5. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    He did fine in his first year in the NEAFL. He didn't show anything to suggest he's guaranteed to make it, but he was more impressive than Aliir was in his first year (albeit he's a bit more dour in style than Aliir).
    That's right. I'm a big fan now, but after his first year I thought Aliir would be a certain delisting.

    KPPs almost always need at least 2 years to get an idea of how they will go. Melican showed only glipses until the NEAFL GF in his second season.

    It's hard to believe, but Jake Lloyd is not entering his sixth season (same as Dean Towers). He started well in the NEAFL and has continued to make solid progress every year. It just takes time to develop, even for the ones who look promissing from year one. Even Deano is beginning look like a legit senior player.
    Last edited by Ludwig; 27th February 2018 at 10:12 PM.

  6. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    Maibaum has had one year, not two. He was our third pick in the 2016 draft, after Florent and Haywood.

    He did fine in his first year in the NEAFL. He didn't show anything to suggest he's guaranteed to make it, but he was more impressive than Aliir was in his first year (albeit he's a bit more dour in style than Aliir).
    Yeah right. Perhaps I did expect a bit much of him last year. I maintain that he didn't show anything particular to suggest he would challenge our three key defenders for the future, but he does have time.

    On Aliir, he was injured for half of his first year and I recall watching his first game of the 2015 NEAFL season down here against Ainslie and he was great before he hurt his knee late in the game. It took him quite a while to get started again after coming back from that, but the signs were there at least at the start of his second year.

  7. #19
    2018- I wonder whether Towers, Newman, marsh and Cunningham ie players who have been in the system for some time now might be exuding the 10,000 hour rule and start to pick themselves via the hours plying their trade and level jumping here on !!

  8. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by wolftone57 View Post
    Talent does not ensure a player will be a great AFL player. Trent Dennis-Lane had wonderful natural talent but couldn't concentrate on the defects in his game and work hard enough to be a great player.

    It takes more than pure talent. It takes hard work, dedication and a single mindedness that you are going to be as perfect as it gets plus pure talent. Buddy doesn't just get up on the day of the match, go out and kick 10 goals, 6 of them almost impossible, without the hard work. He practices those dribble kicks from the boundary to goal over and over again until they are perfect. Paps practices his pick up and snap from ervery angle, against the best the club has to give. Heens practices the low skimming passes for hours.

    What most fans don't see is the incredible amount of hard work that goes into being a great player no matter how much talent there is to begin with.
    TDL exits the back door and HC enters the front door. I reckon TDL's papers were stamped when he didn't go for a mark with the vigour he should have in a pre season game against The Pies at Ethihad Stadium.

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