Injuries - Naismith ACL

[Ludwig]

I'm surprised Ludwig hasn't described this as an irrelevant footnote to the season if not a hidden blessing.

We should be a more successful team with Aliir and Towers as our ruck combo. It's the way of the future and it really suits the style of play we are heading towards. Injury and a generally poor quality ruck division have forced our hand, but it could all be for the best.

I have commented on the matter, but only briefly. There's an extensive analysis which I could provide, but I won't do it all in one go, to spare RWO members the pain.

Most of us have been following the game for quite some time and have become fixated with traditional roles and game styles from a game much steeped in history. But things are changing. In my own team analysis I no longer use the traditional 6 x 3 matrix of player positions, because the game is no longer played that way.

Forget about the traditional image of a ruckman: The big guy who tries to out-muscle another big guy to get a touch to the advantage of another member of the team.

This part of the game is about stoppage strategy and may involve any number combinations of player types and tactics, some with big traditional type ruckmen, some without.

At present we do not have a good option that involves a big man beating another big man at stoppages, so we just do something else. We should play the stoppages defensively, trying for a loose ball situation. If we don't win the first loose ball situation, we should be setup in a position behind the ball to get a turnover from a forced kick from the opposition.

We should also try to keep the ball in play, avoiding stoppages and taking advantage of having an extra mobile player in lieu of the opposition typically immobile ruckman. If you look at our recent drafts of players like Hayward, Florent, Ling and Stoddart, it is quite evident that we are quickly evolving in this direction. We are not the stoppage team that benefited from a powerful ruckman and players like Kirk, Bolton and ROK.

Some may not see any analogy between basketball and Aussie Rules, but I see many similarities in game strategy. In NBA basketball the big powerful centre is going out of style, unless he is mobile and can shoot from the outside. The game has evolved from a low scoring period to more speed, outside shooting and more scoring. There are ever more taller players with great mobility and agility, like our own Australian Ben Simmons, who plays point guard at nearly 7 feet tall and moves like a gazelle. In AFL we are seeing a trend to taller midfielders as well as more mobile tall forwards and backmen.

The future of the game is with speed, quick movement and skills across the ground. The loss of Tippett and Naismith may seem unfortunate, but has given us a hard push in the right direction. Hopefully the coaching staff see the opportunity and go with it and not try to force an inferior player to fit the mould of a traditional position.

Aliir looks to be in training without any support for the ankle, so he should be okay to go round 1. I'd be happy to give Cameron a go and see if he's up to it. Toby Pink has played in the ruck and is another option although he hasn't shown enough so far to say he's a good enough footballer and we haven't seen him in pre-season games so far. In any case, I believe there can be an effective strategy even if every hitout is lost to advantage.

[Ludwig]

Carrying ruckmen is a waste list space. They are usually out injured anyway. It looks as though Natanui will be out for round 1 as well as Vardy, yet again. Even Max Gawn has only managed to play 74 games in 8 seasons and the Demons actually played their best football when Pederson was their number 1 ruckman. Richmond won the premiership with 1 ordinary and over-hyped ruckman, mainly because no one bothered defending him, and Shaun Grigg taking plenty of the stoppages. The evidence regarding the ruckman is there for all to see, unless you keep your eyes closed.

[Mel_C]

When I heard the news the first thing I thought of was Ludwig. What have you been up to over the summer?? First Tippett and now Naismith. ????

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[wolftone57]

Aliir might be 196cm but he's a full five years older than Amarty and has been in the system for more than four years. He's fitter, stronger and more experienced. Even he is a doubtful ruck prospect but there's a huge gulf between his capabilities - for this season - and those of Amarty. I think it's folly to think Amarty is going to come in and play in the ruck for the senior team in 2018.

I think you are reading this totally wrong. Please note;

If this was an ordinary season Joel Amarty's name would and should not even be mentioned except when talking about him making his NEAFL debut. But I'm here to tell you that if the other two go down they will start looking to fast track his progress.


then;
If both of them do we only have Aliir of the experienced players left. That leaves Amarty who was drafted as a ruckman. By the way according to people who have seen training he has been doing light work but spending more time in the gym. I'd say they are trying to bulk him up a bit.

What I'm saying is he should be ready in case of an emergency. After all the last ruckman standing last week was Cameron. In fact Aliir went down too.

I'm not saying in normal circumstances Amarty would play seniors. I'm saying if worst comes to worst he should be ready. By the way I've seen a lot of reserves and Aliir is not very good in the ruck.

[Foreign Legion]

Carrying ruckmen is a waste list space. They are usually out injured anyway. It looks as though Natanui will be out for round 1 as well as Vardy, yet again. Even Max Gawn has only managed to play 74 games in 8 seasons and the Demons actually played their best football when Pederson was their number 1 ruckman. Richmond won the premiership with 1 ordinary and over-hyped ruckman, mainly because no one bothered defending him, and Shaun Grigg taking plenty of the stoppages. The evidence regarding the ruckman is there for all to see, unless you keep your eyes closed.

Well argued Ludwig - I am *almost* convinced - time will tell I guess. Imagine if Aliir can stay fit and use the ball like he did in his breakout season - he could be a real weapon in the square or around the stoppages

[stellation]

My analysis of this situation is: this isn't good.

[Scottee]

Oh bother!

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[MattW]

Bummer for Sam.

As has been said, Naismith is our best tap ruckman, although that didn't provide us with the advantage last year that it seemed to in the latter part of 2016. He is also quite aggressive around the ruck contests and tries hard. I really like his attitude. There are some limitations to his game, which expose us from time to time. He's not a great mark, his disposal is pretty poor both by hand and foot, and he is not a goal threat.

I think the following are the available options, in order of preference (from their perspective):

* Sinclair main ruck/Towers relief

I think any realistic option has Sinclair playing main ruck. The question is what else happens. I think this will be their preference and it is mine too.

The main consequence of this is that we will see less of Sinclair forward. I am not too upset by that. While his marking has really come on and he had some great games forward last year (the Bombers final comes to mind), I thought his lack of pace was exposed a few times against better teams and left us looking a bit lumbering up there. The consequence of Sinclair playing less forward is that it is less likely that Reid and Rohan will play back, which is also good.

Sinclair gives a contest around the ground; he'll get more ball than Naismith, although he'll provide fewer taps to advantage.

This option isn't awful.

* Sinclair main ruck/Cameron relief

It is hard to get too much of a sense of how effective Cameron will be at this level yet. I missed the first JLT game, but Ludwig's review wasn't encouraging.

This option might depend on match-ups, but on the face of it, it is not awful.

* Sinclair main ruck/Aliir relief

This is the exciting option. I think it would work and really add something. But I don't hold out too much hope for it. For a start, it requires all of our tall defenders to be fit, because they will push him back if any one of Rampe, Melican or Grundy don't play. I also suspect they see him as a long-term tall defender and want him to develop that craft.

Might be an option if Towers and/or Cameron go down.

It's hard to see, realistically, how Amartey is an option, having played none of pre-season and apparently not training too much. Hopefully it gets him a good shot at the rucking duties in the reserves and he can develop for the coming years.

[mcs]

My analysis of this situation is: this isn't good.

Yep, that pretty much sums it up - whether ruckmen are a waning influence or not, we are now -2 players in that area for the entire season.

[dimelb]

Perhaps if we put Cox in the 35 guernsey?
Otherwise I'd go with Sinclair with backup from Towers and Cameron.

[Ludwig]

Here's a question to make you think about the ruck situation more deeply:

If there were no ruck contests, how many ruckmen would be good enough to make the best 22 of their respective teams?

The only one I can think of is Patty Ryder, who could probably play a key forward for PA. Brodie Grundy, Matt Kreuzer and Jordan Roughhead are other possibilities who might just be good enough to claim a KPP spot, but nothing certain.

That segues into a further question: What do ruckmen do that warrant a spot in their team that they otherwise are not good enough to earn?

Supposedly they are providing first use of the ball at stoppages or preventing their counterparts from providing first use of the ball for the opposition. More broadly, they are doing something that will lead to more scoring opportunities for their respective sides than the opposition. There is plenty of evidence from last year alone where teams that were smashed in hitouts and also lost clearances by some margin went on to have decisive victories.

The objective is to produce more scoring opportunities, not blindly put up some big guy to lock horns with the opposition's big guy. There are other ways to get the desired result.

I don't think Sinclair offers much in this regard. He puts up some resistance in the ruck contests, but generally loses them. He's not a good mark and is certainly very inconsistent with his marking. He might have a good game or two by stringing a number of good marks together, but then flop the following week. He's not a good decision maker, nor is he a good user of the ball. I think at 28 that Sinclair has probably peaked out. When he's playing forward he's usually just clogging up space that others could run into.

I'm not sure about Cameron, but he's more mobile and a better mark than Sinclair, but needs to play the physical sort of game that's required of an AFL ruckman. Sinclair has significantly improved his game in this regard since coming to the Swans and is one of positives for him. At 22 and no AFL experience, Cameron is an unknown to some extent, but at least he has upside potential, and that may be worth pursuing until proven that he's not going to be good enough. if that should be the way it turns out.

In any case, none of the traditional ruck options look all that appealing for us, so why not try something different. I think our best ruck combo is Towers and Aliir, with Parker and Reid taking the ruckman role for several contests a match.

It's worth mentioning again that my opinions on ruckmen have been strongly influenced by Lee Mathews, who has been on to this for as long as I have.

[Jimitron5000]

Ludwig, if there were no ruck contests it would be a different sport! That said, the game is definitely evolving and ruckman need to be able to provide more than hitouts and a contest.

Devastated for Naismith. I like the way he goes about it.