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Thread: Unbelievable Underdog/Not So Good as Overdog

  1. #1

    Unbelievable Underdog/Not So Good as Overdog

    Beat the Eagles in Perth? No problem
    Beat Geelong at Geelong? No problem
    Beat Hawthorn at G? No problem

    Win at Home? Let me get back to you...

    This just hasn't been a factor this year, but in the modern age.

    We've had some unbelievable wins.
    Winning finals at Adelaide in 2003 and 2012, Winning finals in Perth especially 2006, the wins against Geelong and St Kilda in the 2005 finals and then winning the 2012 Grand Final.
    Games when no one gave us a chance, not only did we have a chance but we won.

    But then for games when when we were a chance, most notably the 2006, 2014 and 2016 Grand Finals we weren't the same team.

    The team that is a perfect 4-0 on the road this year shouldn't be struggling against North at home.
    The team that is a perennial finalist should play the same clinical, cut-throat, contested football when it matters most in September.

    Sometimes it may be coaching related - we have Plan A and when that doesn't work, we're stuck. We need to be the ones with different plans for different teams. Play Buddy in defence, put Joey in the goal square, something so remarkable and left-field that it flusters the opposition and we crush them.

    We're more than good enough to win a flag - we just need something to counter this 2-steps forward, one step back loop that we sometimes can find ourselves in.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by dawson View Post
    Beat the Eagles in Perth? No problem
    Beat Geelong at Geelong? No problem
    Beat Hawthorn at G? No problem

    Win at Home? Let me get back to you...

    This just hasn't been a factor this year, but in the modern age.

    We've had some unbelievable wins.
    Winning finals at Adelaide in 2003 and 2012, Winning finals in Perth especially 2006, the wins against Geelong and St Kilda in the 2005 finals and then winning the 2012 Grand Final.
    Games when no one gave us a chance, not only did we have a chance but we won.

    But then for games when when we were a chance, most notably the 2006, 2014 and 2016 Grand Finals we weren't the same team.

    The team that is a perfect 4-0 on the road this year shouldn't be struggling against North at home.
    The team that is a perennial finalist should play the same clinical, cut-throat, contested football when it matters most in September.

    Sometimes it may be coaching related - we have Plan A and when that doesn't work, we're stuck. We need to be the ones with different plans for different teams. Play Buddy in defence, put Joey in the goal square, something so remarkable and left-field that it flusters the opposition and we crush them.

    We're more than good enough to win a flag - we just need something to counter this 2-steps forward, one step back loop that we sometimes can find ourselves in.
    This Season in the Swans’ 8 games thus far, the favourite has won just twice, with our wins against The Eagles in Round 1, and the Bulldogs in Round 4. Even the latter was a surprising by virtue to its closeness. That’s 6 1/2 upsets out of possible 8.
    The trend if it continues is not great for the next four games against Freo (H), BRISBANE (A), Carlton (H), and St Kilda(A); whereupn the Swans will be clearly favourites in all four games.

  3. #3
    and each of the Swans' wins has been at a different venue: Optus, SCG, Etihad, Kardinia, MCG.

  4. #4
    Warming the Bench grarmy's Avatar
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    The SCG no longer suits the game style of the Swans.

  5. #5
    McVeigh for Brownlow RogueSwan's Avatar
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    I realise stats can be selective but

    Wins - 71 goals 43 behinds (62%)
    Losses - 29 goals 38 behinds (43%)

    "bad goal kicking is bad footy"

    It would be interesting to see a map of where our shots are taken on the SCG compared to away games. Maybe we go too wide at home?
    "Fortunately, this is the internet, so knowing nothing is no obstacle to having an opinion!." Beerman 18-07-2017

  6. #6
    pr. dim-melb; m not f
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    Quote Originally Posted by RogueSwan View Post
    I realise stats can be selective but

    Wins - 71 goals 43 behinds (62%)
    Losses - 29 goals 38 behinds (43%)

    "bad goal kicking is bad footy"

    It would be interesting to see a map of where our shots are taken on the SCG compared to away games. Maybe we go too wide at home?

    Reminds me I read somewhere one of our players saying that our training ground (and I assumed he meant the one outside the SCG, not inside) strongly resembles Geelong's Arctic Park.
    He reminds him of the guys, close-set, slow, and never rattled, who were play-makers on the team. (John Updike, seeing Josh Kennedy in a crystal ball)

  7. #7
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    This time last year we'd also won one at the SCG. Ended up winning 8/12.

    I agree, home losses are frustrating. But I don't think there's any kind of systemic issue. Just one of those statistical flukes that the numbers throw up every few seasons.

    Ask me again after round 23

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