Is Longmire cooked?

[KSAS]

If we entered Inside 50 more frequently via our midfield, game plan would largely take care of itself. Other teams are running riot onto loose balls and at times doubling our inside 50 count. Not sustainable. Midfield prowess that we had has been decimated.

That for me is our biggest problem at the moment, getting smashed in centre clearances which puts even more pressure on a backline which no longer has the experience/skill of years gone by to absorb & counter attack.

We lack an explosive midfielder to dash out of a centre clearance, last being Adam Goodes at his peak & Paul Williams. When fit, wondering if Rohan can start playing small amount of time in centre bounces (30% & 70% forward, reverse of what Danger does for Geelong), to help the dynamic in this area & also help Rohan get more involved.

I have every faith Longmire will adjust our game plan & playing style, because I think he has been so reluctant to let go of a game plan which has been part of our DNA for soooo long & proven successful. I trust that he & his coaching team will realise that change is being forced upon them.

[lwjoyner]

I think he is, his look in the coaches box is one of not knowing what to do.

[Markwebbos]

Stats from last night. Clearances 35-34. Contested possessions 156–141. Inside 50s 72-39. We are just about breaking even in clearances but annihilated in turning those into inside 50s.

It’s a double whammy. We are being beaten on the inside and smashed on the outside.

Horse said it. The foundation of our game is winning the contest. If he can’t put out a team that holds it own in contested footy we struggle, although in the past we’ve lost clearances but won due to our better ball use. Not this year.

Richmond are the worst clearance team in the AFL but favourites for the premiership because they’ve developed a game plan that is based on creating turnovers near goal. We win the ball back in defence.

Hawthorns gameplan is based on being better ball users than their opponents.

It feels like we’ve reached a fork in the road. We have drafted a bunch of quicker players who potentially use the ball well. Yet we are trying to play a game based on wearing the opposition down and controlling the supply of ball, which we don’t have the players to pull off.

Do we stick with the antiquated game plan and try and trade in more grunt. Or devise a new one that plays to our strengths? I think Horse is trying a bit of both but it’s not working with the team he’s got available.

Changes at Richmond (2017) and Collingwood (2018) both came not from the head coach but from the assistants. I just don’t know if Horse is willing to admit he needs to change.

Think the club needs an external REVIEW. One of our problems is that Horse has had tremendous success with what he has done. It may be hard to persuade him things need to change.

Would love to be a fly on the wall right now

[liz]

I think he is, his look in the coaches box is one of not knowing what to do.

That's probably because no game plan in the world can work if a team cannot execute basic skills, like winning a centre clearance.

When we narrowly beat Essendon just over a year ago, it was a contest between the Swans' contested game and the Bombers' outside speed and dare. At different periods of the game, one prevailed over the other but we were able to win enough contests to (just) win the game.

Not only are we lacking two of the midfielders who have been very important contributors to our contested style in recent seasons in Jack and Hannebery (who weren't even able to contribute in those areas before their latest injuries forced them from the team), but Parker and Kennedy are only able to contribute sporadically in this department. The stats say we did win some centre clearances yesterday but I can't say I recall any of them. I attended a few pre-season training sessions in January and February and didn't see either Kennedy or Parker doing anything other than standing on the sideline watching (with Hannebery). Whether they had specific ailments or were just being taken along slowly in response to years of their bodies being battered, I don't know. But I suspect both are feeling the effects of not having a decent pre-season preparation, possibly exacerbated by further niggles or soreness picked up as the season has progressed. (Kennedy certainly had his knee strapped for several games early in the season and we know he had a back injury a couple of weeks ago).


Then we have Buddy who looked sore against Gold Coast and even sorer yesterday. He usually plays with a smile on his face but there was a lot of grimacing going on yesterday evening. The commentators kept crapping on about moving him up the ground to escape the blanketing job Hurley was doing. At one point Bruce (I think) quietly commented that he didn't look to be moving well, but no-one else responded and they started going on again about moving him up the ground.

We have a couple in the team in Newman and Fox who are probably not quite good enough but are fine to be part of a team if they're the 21st and 22nd players picked. But when they're in a team that also includes three first year players, Dawson (who is for all intents and purposes a first year senior player) plus the still young and inexperienced bodies of Hayward and Florent, it's not surprising that things fell apart. Confidence is a huge thing and the team is bereft of that at the moment.

There was a period at the very end of the North game, when we were two goals down with about as many minutes to play, that I told myself we were going to lose but didn't actually mind that much because the team had at least shown it had remembered how to play football. Now I am wondering if that was a group of imposters. Clearly it wasn't, but it shows the narrow gap between a team functioning OK and it becoming a rabble.

With hindsight, I think the difference in that game was that the midfield pressure (from either side) wasn't at a high level. But after quarter time against the Suns and for most of yesterday, it was ramped up and we have too many players, especially in the middle of the ground, who aren't able to cope with it at the moment. I thought Florent, for example, tried hard to take the game on at times but he isn't quite yet physically equipped to withstand the physicality of opponents. Similarly with Hayward, who also seems to have lost a bit of confidence in himself. These are good young players and I'm confident they'll develop in the next couple of seasons but they need to be surrounded by fitter, stronger, more experienced bodies at the moment.

[liz]

Changes at Richmond (2017) and Collingwood (2018) both came not from the head coach but from the assistants. I just don’t know if Horse is willing to admit he needs to change.

I think that comment would have merit if we'd had the same coaching panel for several seasons. But we had a big turnover of assistant coaches at the end of last year. It's possible that the new panel hasn't gelled, or that we just don't have good ones. But turning the panel over again just for the sake of change won't guarantee improvement.

As I rambled on about above, I think the problem at the moment is playing personnel, not coaches or game styles. It's impossible to make any judgement on the coaching or game style with the team (personnel and fitness of those personnel) the club is currently able to put out on the ground.

[chalbilto]

I dont think Longmire is to blame for current state of losing. Sure, questions still remain about turning top 4 finished into flags, but thats another issue.

My feeling is that right now, we can barely put a fit 22 on the park. This is based on the evidence:
- We are still blooding debutants like Cameron and Dawson at this late stage in the season.
- Previous out-of-favour players are getting a game (Allir)
- The circus around Reg Grundy's selection. He's obviously not fit, but we discovered that we need him half fit or not.
- Playing players who can barely move. Earlier Hannerbury and Jack, now Buddy.

Very hard to see us being a contender, with all these injuries. Doesnt matter how good the coach is.

Silver lining is we might see AJ back in the team before years end.

+2

[Markwebbos]

I think that comment would have merit if we'd had the same coaching panel for several seasons. But we had a big turnover of assistant coaches at the end of last year. It's possible that the new panel hasn't gelled, or that we just don't have good ones. But turning the panel over again just for the sake of change won't guarantee improvement.

As I rambled on about above, I think the problem at the moment is playing personnel, not coaches or game styles. It's impossible to make any judgement on the coaching or game style with the team (personnel and fitness of those personnel) the club is currently able to put out on the ground.

Liz I agree with most of what you say in your first post and that we have a personnel problem / lack of experienced, hard players.

Personnel wise:

(1) Our backline is in reasonable shape but we have real problems in the midfield. We will (fingers crossed) gets Mills, Hanners (fit), Naismith back next year but I don’t think that will be enough to rediscover our dominance inside.

Do you think we’ll get it from improvement & physical growth in Florent, Hayward, Heeney etc OR do you think we should trade for it OR adapt our gameplan to be more of an outside team?

(2) Similarly our under siege backline is one of the few success stories of 2018, but has enormous problems moving the ball out of D50. We can’t continue to kick it long down the line in 2019, which means we have to change that element of our game.

I understand that the way we move the ball depends on players, when I look at the impact AA is having. Btw he only came in by default due to Melican’s injury.

I guess I’m trying to say to continue to play as we have been next year would be madness. Our gameplan has to change if we are to challenge. We’ve struggled in every game this year except the Saints game.

My note about assistants was more that Richmond and Collingwood changed their gameplan without changing their coach. I guess that Horse is a good with the players, but may not be at the cutting edge tactically. BUT with the right assistance could change significantly as Bucks and Dimma have. I don’t know what the new assistants are like ... it could be them or we may need fresh blood. More about Horses willingness to change.

We do so many things well at the Swans. But I think Horse needs to be prepared to revisit our gameplan in the light of our younger, quicker players if we are to have any hope of success next year.

What do you think should happen next year?

The panel has changed but the default gameplan has not.

[stevoswan]

The panel has changed but the default gameplan has not.

This is my biggest gripe about how things have turned out this season (bar our unfortunate injury list)......new ideas in the coaches box that either haven't been aired (why?) or have been ignored.....again, why? Is Horse too rigid in his approach? Is this why a number of assistants left last year? Do we even have harmony in the coaches box and is this affecting the players? I don't have the same confidence in the 'solidarity' of our club at the moment.......or the playing group. I don't see "Bloods 'never say die' culture", I see signs of possible fracture. I am worried......

[The Big Cat]

This is my biggest gripe about how things have turned out this season (bar our unfortunate injury list)......new ideas in the coaches box that either haven't been aired (why?) or have been ignored.....again, why? Is Horse too rigid in his approach? Is this why a number of assistants left last year? Do we even have harmony in the coaches box and is this affecting the players? I don't have the same confidence in the 'solidarity' of our club at the moment.......or the playing group. I don't see "Bloods 'never say die' culture", I see signs of possible fracture. I am worried......

What evidence is there of
Assistants unhappy last year or discontent in the coach's box? Or fractured playing group. We seem to be signing everyone we want who are rapt to stay .

Blake Caracalla is out of contract at Richmond as an assistant and is apparently the factor behind
Hadwick going from dud to premiership coach. He was also at Geelong for some of their premierships as assistant coach. Maybe it's time we shifted Kirky sideways (to meditation manager) and throw the chequebook at Carracella

[Markwebbos]

What evidence is there of
Assistants unhappy last year or discontent in the coach's box? Or fractured playing group. We seem to be signing everyone we want who are rapt to stay .

Blake Caracalla is out of contract at Richmond as an assistant and is apparently the factor behind
Hadwick going from dud to premiership coach. He was also at Geelong for some of their premierships as assistant coach. Maybe it's time we shifted Kirky sideways (to meditation manager) and throw the chequebook at Carracella

It's hard to know who is responsible for what when you have a team, but given the consistency of our "brand" of footy through so many years it must be largely Horse's choice to play this way. If Horse were to delegate ball movement to an expert (or have an expert suggest best options for our skill set) it might be a good thing. No point getting in Caracella if you aren't going to apply his expertise.

Rule changes - 6/6/6 etc might be a positive if they force a rethink on our coaching panel.

There was discussion this week on the Age Realfooty podcast (or should I now say - NEG's podcast) about a major difference of opinion between Dew and Longmire over tactics, which may have been a significant factor behind Dew's decision to go after the Gold Coast job. Of all the journos out there, I think the formerly Fairfax lot seem the most decent. That would explain the total clean out at the end of 2017.

[Blood Fever]

What evidence is there of
Assistants unhappy last year or discontent in the coach's box? Or fractured playing group. We seem to be signing everyone we want who are rapt to stay .

Blake Caracalla is out of contract at Richmond as an assistant and is apparently the factor behind
Hadwick going from dud to premiership coach. He was also at Geelong for some of their premierships as assistant coach. Maybe it's time we shifted Kirky sideways (to meditation manager) and throw the chequebook at Carracella

Media like a guru story and have singled out Caracella. Who knows if it's true or not. Meditation sessions worked in the Roos era - bring them back I say. Lot of people doing it these days to good effect.

[chalbilto]

It's hard to know who is responsible for what when you have a team, but given the consistency of our "brand" of footy through so many years it must be largely Horse's choice to play this way. If Horse were to delegate ball movement to an expert (or have an expert suggest best options for our skill set) it might be a good thing. No point getting in Caracella if you aren't going to apply his expertise.

Rule changes - 6/6/6 etc might be a positive if they force a rethink on our coaching panel.

There was discussion this week on the Age Realfooty podcast (or should I now say - NEG's podcast) about a major difference of opinion between Dew and Longmire over tactics, which may have been a significant factor behind Dew's decision to go after the Gold Coast job. Of all the journos out there, I think the formerly Fairfax lot seem the most decent. That would explain the total clean out at the end of 2017.

Dew has been after a senior coaching position for a few years and he went after the Gold Coast job when it became available. It had nothing to do with difference of opinions with Longmire. Dare I say "fake news".