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Thread: Retrospective look at analysing the 2018 draw.

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    Retrospective look at analysing the 2018 draw.

    According to this article, the Swans were only just pipped by St.Kilda in having the the toughest 2018 draw when examined retrospectively. It gives further credence to the club making the top 8 when all things considered.

    https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/...31-p500xd.html

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    Largely agrees with this analysis:

    2018 Strength of Schedule: A Post-Season Review

    Which notes "As a final observation, it's interesting to note that, of the teams with the eight smallest differences between actual and expected schedule strength, six made the finals." One of the other two being Sydney so yes, doing it harder than the rest!

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    I wonder if the powers to be will try and make the 2019 draw harder for the Swans?

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    Quote Originally Posted by chalbilto View Post
    I wonder if the powers to be will try and make the 2019 draw harder for the Swans?
    Harder than it was, retrospectively, in 2018?

    We finished 6th in 2017, putting us in the top group for following season draw seeding. That means we should have been drawn to play twice two teams that also finished in the top six, two that finished in the 7-12 range, and one from the bottom six. That was, indeed, how our draw panned out, with the Giants and Cats the two top six finishers, West Coast and Hawthorn the 7-12 range finishers and North the bottom 6 finisher. While the Giants and Cats fell from the top tier to the middle (but very top of the middle), these were replaced by West Coast and Hawthorn who moved to the top tier (pre-finals - but both will remain in the top 6 even if they go out in straight sets). And, of course, North outperformed most people's expectations.

    There's no reason to think they won't stick to the same seeding next year. If we lose at the weekend we'll fall into the middle tier, but if we win we'll be again in the top tier. We know we'll play the Giants twice next season and if we lose to them on Saturday, they will finish in the top six. I think that means we won't get another double up game against a top six finishing team. That said, the AFL does seem to love pitching us against Hawthorn twice every year. I wonder why!

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    Harder than it was, retrospectively, in 2018?

    We finished 6th in 2017, putting us in the top group for following season draw seeding. That means we should have been drawn to play twice two teams that also finished in the top six, two that finished in the 7-12 range, and one from the bottom six. That was, indeed, how our draw panned out, with the Giants and Cats the two top six finishers, West Coast and Hawthorn the 7-12 range finishers and North the bottom 6 finisher. While the Giants and Cats fell from the top tier to the middle (but very top of the middle), these were replaced by West Coast and Hawthorn who moved to the top tier (pre-finals - but both will remain in the top 6 even if they go out in straight sets). And, of course, North outperformed most people's expectations.

    There's no reason to think they won't stick to the same seeding next year. If we lose at the weekend we'll fall into the middle tier, but if we win we'll be again in the top tier. We know we'll play the Giants twice next season and if we lose to them on Saturday, they will finish in the top six. I think that means we won't get another double up game against a top six finishing team. That said, the AFL does seem to love pitching us against Hawthorn twice every year. I wonder why!
    That would be a good question to ask Gil and Alistair when they get together for their tete a tete with their morning coffee.

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    McVeigh for Brownlow Site Admin RogueSwan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    ... That said, the AFL does seem to love pitching us against Hawthorn twice every year. I wonder why!
    They have shares in a defibrillator company?
    "Fortunately, this is the internet, so knowing nothing is no obstacle to having an opinion!." Beerman 18-07-2017

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    Quote Originally Posted by RogueSwan View Post
    They have shares in a defibrillator company?
    Maybe Gil just likes free coffee?

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    Quote Originally Posted by dejavoodoo44 View Post
    Maybe Gil just likes free coffee?
    I see him as an iced mocha kind of chap, with a big dollop of whipped cream on top. Maybe a cherry too.

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    Mocha

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    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    That said, the AFL does seem to love pitching us against Hawthorn twice every year. I wonder why!
    ......and then always getting Stevic to adjudicate in those games which we often lose by less than two goals.....and yet again I say, it can't be a coincidence.

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    Veterans List dejavoodoo44's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    I see him as an iced mocha kind of chap, with a big dollop of whipped cream on top. Maybe a cherry too.
    And a little note, that says, "Thank you for being you".

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    Quote Originally Posted by dejavoodoo44 View Post
    And a little note, that says, "Thank you for being you".
    .....and all that after sadly informing Clarkson, "I thought Matt Stevic was joining us but he must have got lost."

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