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Thread: 2019 ladder prediction for the swans

  1. #49
    Extremely difficult to predict how we will go. If we can get something approaching our best team on the ground regularly then finals beckon again. If not, then probably missing is my best guess.

    Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

  2. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by Markwebbos View Post
    TAB have released their projected wins for every side in 2019. They’ve only given us 11.5 wins.
    With due respect to the Herald Sun, what the TAB is actually saying is that the chances of the Swans winning 12 games or more is exactly the same as the chance of winning 11 or less. In other words, they've got NFI.

    Of more interest to me, as someone who regularly bets on AFL, is that both TAB and Bet365 have the Swans at odds-on to make the final eight.

    Bet 365 rates Sydney above Geelong and Hawthorn, level with Adelaide, but behind Essendon.

    TAB has Sydney roughly level with Port and North, but behind Geelong and Hawthorn.

    Both Bet365 and TAB agree that there will be 12 teams trying to fit into 8 spots for the final.

  3. #51
    HS article previewing our 2019 season, which is a change of tune from previous HS articles of this nature as this one can see genuine excitement next season provided a fit & firing Buddy, along with Sam Reid, Menzel & our promising young brigade taking that next step:

    Outline - Read & annotate without distractions

  4. #52
    KSAS that’s from a series looking for positives for each club. The HS aren’t suggesting things are this rosy, sorry.

  5. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by Markwebbos View Post
    KSAS that’s from a series looking for positives for each club. The HS aren’t suggesting things are this rosy, sorry.
    No apologies required MW, I realise there are big IF's with this HS summation but I found it interesting they were able to acknowledge the upsides with our emerging young talent (along with a fit Buddy & Reid), but yet they think we're on the slide in previous articles.

  6. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by KSAS View Post
    No apologies required MW, I realise there are big IF's with this HS summation but I found it interesting they were able to acknowledge the upsides with our emerging young talent (along with a fit Buddy & Reid), but yet they think we're on the slide in previous articles.



    It depends which of the "experts" write the article and also to which market they are writing for. A lot of their assumptions are based of the previous season's games, outcomes etc. They do not take into consideration injuries to key personal which affected results viz, Sam Reid, Buddy not being able to train, Callum Mills etc.
    Next season it is a whole new ball game so let's see what transpires. Personally I believe that we will have another good season and I donb't plan on booking holidays in September.

  7. #55
    Veterans List wolftone57's Avatar
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    I'm not expecting anything spectacular this season if we don't change the game plan. If that does not occur we will drop to out of the eight and I think quite low. If we change the game plan and utilise all the young talent at our disposal we will maintain our position and maybe rise. We are very close to a wonderful era but we just need the coaching to catch up to the talent.

  8. #56
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    Couldn't resist the 21.00 on offer for the flag and just had $10 on it. Decided not to follow the murmurings of the herd.

  9. #57
    What is a contrarian anyway ?


  10. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by Nico View Post
    Couldn't resist the 21.00 on offer for the flag and just had $10 on it. Decided not to follow the murmurings of the herd.
    21:1 odds is exceptional value in an 18 horse race. Especially in a team which can on-paper do it with a good run, and the last 3 premier's have come from nowhere.

    If all teams were even, odds would be 18:1. If you think your team is above average, then it would be shorter. I would put the swans somewhere between 10:1 and 15:1

  11. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by Nico View Post
    Couldn't resist the 21.00 on offer for the flag and just had $10 on it. Decided not to follow the murmurings of the herd.
    Good on you Nico. I reckon they are very good odds. I’d have us closer to $10. Either way it is much better starting the season full of optimism and hope rather than being part of the negative herd awaiting us to fail just so they can say “I told you so.”

  12. #60
    We'll do better than most "expert" pundits think we will, better than most objective analysts think we have any right to and worse than half the punters on this forum demand we should.

    It will all be great fun as usual.
    Today's a draft of your epitaph

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