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Thread: 2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

  1. #4693
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ludwig View Post
    If there aren't any pick swaps until it's our turn on draft night and Green is the player we want, then we make a bid, if not, we don't, and take the player we want, which is the same point you make. But say that besides Green we find it hard to split the 2 next best players in the pool, say Serong and Flander for instance, and GWS come with an offer for pick 5 that has good value, then why not trade down. We aren't there to hurt the Giants, but rather get the best deal for the Swans. If the Giants then go on and take Serong, for example, we bid on Greeen at 6, the Giants match, and then we take Flanders. It shouldn't matter that the Giants benefit, so long as we benefit as well.
    If the club is genuinely indifferent between two players, I don't see an issue with that. I just think it unlikely that that would be the case. Even if at some stage the club has had difficulty splitting a couple of players, by the time the draft comes around, they'll have grown attached to their tentative decision (even while knowing that they might have that player snatched from under them by Adelaide or Melbourne - or by GWS if they trade up above pick 5).

    I think it's human nature to rationalise things that are taken away from you through no action of your own than by things you contributed to. So if the Swans weren't able to draft the player they wanted due to a club with a higher pick taking them first, that would be easy to get over. It would be harder if they pick swapped with GWS and they then took that player.

    Another possible way it could play out is for GWS and the Swans to be aware of which (non-Green) player each was keen on. Assuming it wasn't the same player, the Giants may then be able to persuade the Swans to swap down, if they gave away something of sufficient value. Of course, if the Giants were being deceitful, and then proceeded to draft the very player the Swans wanted, the Swans would likely never accommodate them again. But I very much doubt clubs would revert to such tactics. It won't do them any good in the long run, and recruiting managers rely on positive and constructive relationships with each other.

    On the whole, though, if the Swans think Green is the best fit for them at that pick, I think they should bid on him. The academy system does distort the draft. In the case of the northern academies the benefits justify that. Even putting aside the fact it's murkier for the NGA academies, for the system to work, I think all clubs need to bid on players where they would take them if they weren't tied to clubs, and based on genuine need. Side deals, silent nods, agreements to look after other clubs etc etc just corrupt the system further and undermine the premises on which it is based.

  2. #4694
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    I think we are all on the same page regarding bidding or drafting players based on merit. After listening to a number of list managers discuss how they go about the draft, it seems most, if not all, go into the draft ranking the list of players that might be available. Otherwise, it would seem pretty hard to make a decision in the short space of time allotted. I'm finding it pretty hard ranking the part of the draft around pick 5, especially since Kemp seems the best fit for our requirements, but now carries some added risk because of ht ACL injury. I wouldn't be surprised if there was plenty of internal debate at the Swans about the pick 3-10 ranking of players, as there has been on this forum.

    The Giants, having come this far, would likely be willing to part with a fair bit of value to get that 2nd top 6 pick, and if the opportunity is there for us, then why not take advantage of it. If there is a specific player that we are really hot on is there at pick 5 and there is a risk the Giants would take him, then yes, we shouldn't trade down. But as you conjectured, there probably is a way to see if that's the case or not.

  3. #4695
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    No point Giants moving up 1 or 2 picks, the only way they guarantee Green plus another to 5 pick is to get pick 3 which is the first live pick as it's 100% Gold Coast are taking the twins as that was the AFLs anti gio home thinking.

    So GWS will give up plenty to the Dees for pick 3, take the player they apparently desperately need there, then match Crows or us for Green. It should be noted that as of a couple of weeks ago, other than GWS of course, only us and the Crows had visited Green's home. You can bet the Dees have been there now to ratchet up the pressure on GWS.

    Not sold on Flanders, don't think he's top 5 material.

  4. #4696
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeynez View Post
    Definitely a gun midfielder. We do have a ruck problem, but we don't need to chase the next Grundy to fix that.

    A competitive ruckmen is enough to enable a good midfield. A great ruckmen will not save a bad midfield.
    Is it not a bit weird for that Ruckman story to be on our website ??

    Ling was leftfield but trading for anything but an elite midfielder with a Top 5 pick is plain stupid

  5. #4697
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    Quote Originally Posted by waswan View Post
    Is it not a bit weird for that Ruckman story to be on our website ??

    Ling was leftfield but trading for anything but an elite midfielder with a Top 5 pick is plain stupid
    Don't read anything into it; it's a syndicated article and the official site needs content.

  6. #4698
    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    This.

    But if the draft does get to pick 5 with Green still on the table, I don't really see why the Swans would accommodate GWS by then trading pick 5 to them, thus enabling them to draft someone else. I don't believe they should bid on Green just for the sake of bidding on him (ie if they don't genuinely prefer him) but nor do I think they are obliged to help the Giants recruit yet another top 5 player as well as Green. Or if they did (because the value GWS offered was compelling), they'd need to have a pretty good idea of who GWS were about to draft. While people may described the draft (below the top 2) as relatively even, by the time draft night comes along, the Swans will have a pretty good idea on who they ideally want with that first pick. The players touted as the next few likely picked may be seen as even in talent, but they are all different kinds of player. They will be prepared for the idea that Melbourne or Adelaide might have their eye on the same player, but imagine they swap pick 5 with the Giants' pick 6, and then the Giants draft the very player that the Swans have their eye on.
    You're right, Liz. 100% agree with you, including your subsequent posts. I had focused on the fact that we wouldn't get Green anyway and the value we could gain thinking it cost us pretty much nothing but that one extra player gone, especially if it is the one we have our eye on is not nothing. We would have to carefully evaluate the deal and decide it's to our advantage.

    I'm hoping Seeing slides to us as per Doerre's phantom draft. He suits our needs and it doesn't hurt that he's a Swans fan plus he's generally very highly rated (top 3-4).

    Incidentally, here's Cal Twomey's October draft rankings at last: Cal Twomey's 2019 Phantom Form Guide: October update - AFL.com.au

  7. #4699
    Seeing = Serong autocorrected

  8. #4700
    RWOs Black Sheep AnnieH's Avatar
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    When does the draft happen?
    I can't believe you people are wasting posts caring about what GW$ are doing.
    Wild speculation, unsubstantiated rumours, silly jokes and opposition delight in another's failures is what makes an internet forum fun.
    Blessed are the cracked for they are the ones who let in the light.

  9. #4701
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    Quote Originally Posted by AnnieH View Post
    When does the draft happen?
    I can't believe you people are wasting posts caring about what GW$ are doing.
    Yeah, it can be fun to speculate but ultimately, it's pointless.

    All will be revealed in due course.....but I do wish it would hurry up.

  10. #4702
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevoswan View Post
    Yeah, it can be fun to speculate but ultimately, it's pointless.

    All will be revealed in due course.....but I do wish it would hurry up.
    Yullah..... hurry up AFL.
    Wild speculation, unsubstantiated rumours, silly jokes and opposition delight in another's failures is what makes an internet forum fun.
    Blessed are the cracked for they are the ones who let in the light.

  11. #4703
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    Having finally watched the videos, my order of preference is: Green; Serong; Young; Kemp.

    For me Green is the stand out. You can see the basis for the Cripps/Kennedy comparisons. He looks a never-beaten, talisman type player.

    Serong looks the kind of player we need. Young less so, but he looks such a smooth and smart player. You can see his class being the difference in a big game.

    Any of those three would be awesome.

    I fear, however, that Adelaide might bid on Green, forcing GWS to match. In that case the choice looks between Kemp and Flanders. The footage I've seen of Flanders isn't that impressive - his disposal by foot looked thoughtless. The footage of Kemp is very impressive, the question is whether we would risk it coming off the ACL.

  12. #4704
    Quote Originally Posted by MattW View Post
    Having finally watched the videos, my order of preference is: Green; Serong; Young; Kemp.

    For me Green is the stand out. You can see the basis for the Cripps/Kennedy comparisons. He looks a never-beaten, talisman type player.

    Serong looks the kind of player we need. Young less so, but he looks such a smooth and smart player. You can see his class being the difference in a big game.

    Any of those three would be awesome.

    I fear, however, that Adelaide might bid on Green, forcing GWS to match. In that case the choice looks between Kemp and Flanders. The footage I've seen of Flanders isn't that impressive - his disposal by foot looked thoughtless. The footage of Kemp is very impressive, the question is whether we would risk it coming off the ACL.
    I agree with you MattW. I would add that Ash is another one worth considering for us in lieu of Flanders or Kemp although they are both mids and thus better suited to our needs.

    There seems to be consensus among draft pundits that Matt Rowell is best, Noah Anderson at second, and then Green, Serong, Young, Flanders and Ash at 3-7 (in various orders). After that opinions diverge. I'm particularly thinking of Twomey and AFL Draft Central's draft rankings and Doerre's phantom draft. (A problem is that it's not really appropriate to compare a phantom draft with draft rankings.) Will Gould is spread between 12, 15 and 20. Rivers - 13, 16, 24. Bianco - 14, 19, 28. Etc., etc. There should still be enough for us to get excited about with our second, third and fourth picks (assuming we don't lose one by trading up). I'm going to re-post the links to those lists now in one place.

    Cal Twomey's 2019 Phantom Form Guide: October update - AFL.com.au

    Expanded AFL Phantom Draft Risers, sliders and new names

    https://www.espn.com/afl/story/_/id/...ders-new-names


    Can someone clarify, can future picks be traded on draft night? Also, can someone confirm that future picks can be traded presently and until nearly draft night - I think they can be.

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