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Thread: 2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

  1. #1105
    Quote Originally Posted by royboy42 View Post
    I totally and whole heartedly agree.

    But I said the same thing about one Lance Franklin a few years ago.

    Lightning strikes only once?? I fear so.
    We shouldn't sell the house to get Grundy. If he wants to come, then of course it would be negligent not to explore options but to entice him to us, it would cost so much.
    In my opinion, we are one KP defender, one mid with elite disposal, one competitive ruckman to support Sinclair and one zippy small forward away from being a top side. If we through the lot a Grundy, still won't cover the deficiencies around the rest of the park.

    - - - Updated - - -

    *threw

  2. #1106
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Dawg View Post
    We shouldn't sell the house to get Grundy. If he wants to come, then of course it would be negligent not to explore options but to entice him to us, it would cost so much.
    In my opinion, we are one KP defender, one mid with elite disposal, one competitive ruckman to support Sinclair and one zippy small forward away from being a top side. If we through the lot a Grundy, still won't cover the deficiencies around the rest of the park.

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    *threw
    Good points. Watched Pies v Giants. Grundy monstered Mumford and had 30 disposals but Cwood lost by heaps because of dominance elsewhere.

  3. #1107
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Dawg View Post
    We shouldn't sell the house to get Grundy. If he wants to come, then of course it would be negligent not to explore options but to entice him to us, it would cost so much.
    In my opinion, we are one KP defender, one mid with elite disposal, one competitive ruckman to support Sinclair and one zippy small forward away from being a top side. If we through the lot a Grundy, still won't cover the deficiencies around the rest of the park.

    - - - Updated - - -

    *threw
    Ruck is our biggest deficiency. I don't think we can seriously compete playing Sinclair as our first choice ruck.

  4. #1108
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    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    I don't think it was a surprise Franklin wanting out of Melbourne. I was surprised he came to us because I didn't think we'd be able to fit him into the cap, but he clearly wasn't enjoying the media focus on him (off-field). Hall was similar (proving that lightning can strike twice).

    Grundy is younger and doesn't attract unwanted off-field attention from the media. He's not in a situation where getting out of the spotlight would appear to be a factor.
    Wouldn't want to join the Crows, can't go out in public there!

    After last nights result and looking through the remaining matches, and a lot of water to go under the bridge in this year of upsets but I'd say pick 5 is just about a lock. Rowell and Anderson consensus 1 & 2 but some very impressive types after that. 2009 was the last time we had a pick this high, albeit we got high draft pick talents in Heeney, Mills and Blakey but we knew they were being selected/matched.

    Trading will be an interesting time for us this year, doubt there will be any more fringe types brought in, do we have something bigger in mind?
    Last edited by 707; 21st July 2019 at 02:29 PM.

  5. #1109
    Quote Originally Posted by MattW View Post
    Ruck is our biggest deficiency. I don't think we can seriously compete playing Sinclair as our first choice ruck.
    What aspect of the ruck are you referring to? Sinclair competes well around the ground, knows his way around goals. Yes, he gets beaten in the hit outs but is that really important? Grundy gets first tap constantly yet the pies are not exactly setting the world on fire. Ditto Gawn and the Dees. Last night Freo dominated the ruck contest yet only beat us by 1, in a game that we otherwise competed well. If the tap was so important, McLean v Sandi / Lobb / Darcy should've translated into a flogging. The tap is over rated and not worth selling the farm to attain by chasing Grundy. Preuss, R O'Brien maybe Archie Smith would be more sensible.

  6. #1110
    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Dawg View Post
    What aspect of the ruck are you referring to? Sinclair competes well around the ground, knows his way around goals. Yes, he gets beaten in the hit outs but is that really important? Grundy gets first tap constantly yet the pies are not exactly setting the world on fire. Ditto Gawn and the Dees. Last night Freo dominated the ruck contest yet only beat us by 1, in a game that we otherwise competed well. If the tap was so important, McLean v Sandi / Lobb / Darcy should've translated into a flogging. The tap is over rated and not worth selling the farm to attain by chasing Grundy. Preuss, R O'Brien maybe Archie Smith would be more sensible.
    Sinclair shouldn't be our #1 ruck (well he only is by default). Having a good ruckman does make a difference, just not as much as some would make out.

    With McLean v three ruckmen, we got smashed in the clearances last night. Yet should have won the game if we'd kicked straight. Imagine if we'd broken even in the clearances and had a functioning forward line!

    I'm assuming McLean'll stay in next week after that performance. He should go better against Stanley (who is "only" 200cm).

    Very pleasantly surprised that the coaches played him in the ruck and played Reid and Aliir in their normal positions.

  7. #1111
    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Dawg View Post
    We shouldn't sell the house to get Grundy. If he wants to come, then of course it would be negligent not to explore options but to entice him to us, it would cost so much.
    In my opinion, we are one KP defender, one mid with elite disposal, one competitive ruckman to support Sinclair and one zippy small forward away from being a top side. If we through the lot a Grundy, still won't cover the deficiencies around the rest of the park.

    - - - Updated - - -

    *threw
    RD I agree with all those, the KPD must be what you are referring to on the match thread when you say our KPD stocks are depleted. I also think we are short a KPF too given Buddy's age and inability to play out a full season.

    Is Maibaum a viable option, or is he going to be delisted at the end of the year?

  8. #1112
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Dawg View Post
    What aspect of the ruck are you referring to? Sinclair competes well around the ground, knows his way around goals. Yes, he gets beaten in the hit outs but is that really important? Grundy gets first tap constantly yet the pies are not exactly setting the world on fire. Ditto Gawn and the Dees. Last night Freo dominated the ruck contest yet only beat us by 1, in a game that we otherwise competed well. If the tap was so important, McLean v Sandi / Lobb / Darcy should've translated into a flogging. The tap is over rated and not worth selling the farm to attain by chasing Grundy. Preuss, R O'Brien maybe Archie Smith would be more sensible.
    Fremantle's domination in the ruck last night (53-18 hit-outs) resulted in them more than doubling our clearance count (46-22). We only got within 1 because we were better than them at the scramble and were excellent in defence. Had we matched them in the clearances we would likely have won.

    I didn't watch Collingwood yesterday, but when they beat us earlier in the year Grundy's dominance over Sinclair was a major reason for their win over us in a close game. As the game wore on Grundy continually beat Sinclair to the ball, particularly at throw-ins and just tapped it wherever he wanted. Grundy won hit-outs over Sinclair 64-20 and Collingwood won clearances 49-38.

    It was the same against Melbourne (lost hit-outs 73-13 and clearances 44-37), Brisbane (lost hit-outs 64-37 and clearances 53-42), Geelong (lost hit-outs 42-34 and clearances 44-31) and Carlton (lost hit-outs 55-20 and clearances 45-32).

    While there are a few exceptions (beaten by Richmond and Bulldogs despite winning hit-outs; beat North and Essendon despite losing hit-outs), generally, where the hit-outs counts have been closer or we have been on top, we have had a better chance of winning the clearances and the game.

    We are third last in hit-outs. Among 39 people classified as ruckmen who have recorded stats this year, Sinclair is:
    - 23rd in average hit-outs
    - 30th in hit-outs to advantage per game
    - 34th in hit-out win percentage and
    - 37th in hit-outs to advantage percentage.

    I can't get a team stat, but based on those I would reckon we are last in the league in hit-outs to advantage percentage differential, which would mean that our midfielders are having to get the ball off the opposition from ruck contests more than any other in the competition, which has got to have an impact on performance.

    Unsurprisingly, Naismith's stats are a lot better. If you open it up to career stats for people classed as ruckmen, Naismith is:
    - 14th in average hit-outs
    - 11th in hit-outs to advantage per game
    - 15th in hit-out win percentage
    - 11th in hit-outs to advantage percentage.

    It is worth noting finally, Preuss' strong stats at ruck contests this year. He has:
    - the best hit-out win percentage of any ruckman who attends more than 3% of ruck contests a game
    - the third best hit-outs to advantage percentage of any ruckman who attends more than 20% of ruck contests a game.

    He is playing as a second ruck, so many of those contests are probably against other second rucks, but they are still impressive. He's obviously not as good around the ground as Grundy, but he would be better than what we have right now in the ruck although I would rather Naismith if he can stay fit.

  9. #1113
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    Quote Originally Posted by MattW View Post
    Fremantle's domination in the ruck last night (53-18 hit-outs) resulted in them more than doubling our clearance count (46-22). We only got within 1 because we were better than them at the scramble and were excellent in defence. Had we matched them in the clearances we would likely have won.

    I didn't watch Collingwood yesterday, but when they beat us earlier in the year Grundy's dominance over Sinclair was a major reason for their win over us in a close game. As the game wore on Grundy continually beat Sinclair to the ball, particularly at throw-ins and just tapped it wherever he wanted. Grundy won hit-outs over Sinclair 64-20 and Collingwood won clearances 49-38.

    It was the same against Melbourne (lost hit-outs 73-13 and clearances 44-37), Brisbane (lost hit-outs 64-37 and clearances 53-42), Geelong (lost hit-outs 42-34 and clearances 44-31) and Carlton (lost hit-outs 55-20 and clearances 45-32).

    While there are a few exceptions (beaten by Richmond and Bulldogs despite winning hit-outs; beat North and Essendon despite losing hit-outs), generally, where the hit-outs counts have been closer or we have been on top, we have had a better chance of winning the clearances and the game.

    We are third last in hit-outs. Among 39 people classified as ruckmen who have recorded stats this year, Sinclair is:
    - 23rd in average hit-outs
    - 30th in hit-outs to advantage per game
    - 34th in hit-out win percentage and
    - 37th in hit-outs to advantage percentage.

    I can't get a team stat, but based on those I would reckon we are last in the league in hit-outs to advantage percentage differential, which would mean that our midfielders are having to get the ball off the opposition from ruck contests more than any other in the competition, which has got to have an impact on performance.

    Unsurprisingly, Naismith's stats are a lot better. If you open it up to career stats for people classed as ruckmen, Naismith is:
    - 14th in average hit-outs
    - 11th in hit-outs to advantage per game
    - 15th in hit-out win percentage
    - 11th in hit-outs to advantage percentage.

    It is worth noting finally, Preuss' strong stats at ruck contests this year. He has:
    - the best hit-out win percentage of any ruckman who attends more than 3% of ruck contests a game
    - the third best hit-outs to advantage percentage of any ruckman who attends more than 20% of ruck contests a game.

    He is playing as a second ruck, so many of those contests are probably against other second rucks, but they are still impressive. He's obviously not as good around the ground as Grundy, but he would be better than what we have right now in the ruck although I would rather Naismith if he can stay fit.
    Excellent post and statistical analysis MattW. Explains why we are hanging in the ring with Naismith.

  10. #1114
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    BTW, Brodie Grundy is still contracted for 2020, and I would think that Collingwood simply won't let him go. He will be a RFA next year.

    As for us, I can't see us being able to afford both Buddy and Brodie. Besides, it would cost us too much in players and draft picks. I'm not sure that we need a ruckman, but rather a fit ruckman.

  11. #1115
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    Quote Originally Posted by 707 View Post
    ..................After last nights result and looking through the remaining matches, and a lot of water to go under the bridge in this year of upsets but I'd say pick 5 is just about a lock.........
    Well, what was I saying, Saints upset win and we have our hands on pick 4!

  12. #1116
    Quote Originally Posted by Ludwig View Post
    BTW, Brodie Grundy is still contracted for 2020, and I would think that Collingwood simply won't let him go. He will be a RFA next year.

    As for us, I can't see us being able to afford both Buddy and Brodie. Besides, it would cost us too much in players and draft picks. I'm not sure that we need a ruckman, but rather a fit ruckman.
    Chance it could get to pick 3 too, carlton have a pretty tough run home ( not as tough as ours ) but they are playing much better footy and I think they could win another 3 from here .


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