2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[dejavoodoo44]

Dougal Howard has now requested a trade to the Saints which will further complicate things now they are chasing four players in Brad Hill, Patrick Ryder, Zak Jones and Howard. Not sure how that's all going to get done.

Not sure how St Kilda has suddenly become a 'destination club', either?

[dejavoodoo44]

I've been thinking that, but not necessarily about the Saints. My guess is that they've been trying so hard to lure players to them, without success, that they've bitten off more than they can chew this year, but they'll find someway to fit them in, even if that means discarding other players.

But I have been wondering about the Giants and Eagles in particular.

Yeo, McGovern (who we know signed a big dollar contract last year, probably the biggest for a defender), Shuey, Gaff, JJK, NicNat, Darling, Sheed and now Kelly. Plus a pretty solid "next tier" of players like Shepherd, Jetta, Barrass, Ryan (who will still be on his first contract in 2020 but will earn a decent payrise when he renews). How do they fit Kelly in on top of what they already have?

Giants have secured Coniglio, and also have Kelly and Greene on handsome contracts - maybe not as much as they would have got elsewhere but still sizeable. Then you throw in the likes of Davis, Williams, Ward, emerging (or maybe fully emerged) mids in Hopper and Taranto. And yet they seem confident they will be able to retain both Cameron - the reigning Coleman medallist and AA Whitfield. Even with Tomlinson and Patton on the way out, it's really hard to see how they all fit.

I've also been wondering about third party deals for a while. As in, how could Hawthorn win premierships, and still successfully lure anyone that they targeted (even if they got rid of aging stars)? Or how can Geelong fit Dangerfield, Ablett and Selwood under their salary cap? Or how could Richmond sign Lynch, when they already have Rance, Riewoldt, Martin and Cotchin?

So, anyway, I have tried Googling information on what clubs are spending and on who they're spending it, but it seems that there's pretty well nothing there. Largely the search results are: Chris Judd scandal, a bit about the AFL knocking back a proposed Ablett payment and some technical stuff about what third party payments are. As far as I can tell, there's nothing about individual deals, or even how much each club spends? Which tends to make me suspicious.

[dejavoodoo44]

Did anyone catch the Trade Show on 7mate tonight? (Andy Mahr, Goddard & Tom Brown).

Andy Mahr (Carlton supporter) was discussing how Carlton can trade in Papley, J Martin & Betts when they only have picks 9, 43, 48 & 72. He suggested they could split their pick 9 (in which trade expert Goddard didn't know what that meant) for picks 17 & 24 with Geelong (according to the draft calculator Carlton would also need trade out their pick 43 to make up the points difference!). They reckon this will FORCE us to accept Pick 17 instead for Papley!!!!!! & pick 24 to GC for Jack Martin. They all agreed Papley is only worth a late 1st round pick!!! Seriously? Have any of them watch Papley play? Who is also on a 4 year contract to boot!!!! Andy also said there's a chance they can pick up Eddie betts for later pick than 48!

Genius Goodard also explained how Geelong can now trade for both Jack Stevens & Brad Crouch, which of course involved their picks 17 24 & their 2020 1st round to Adelaide!!!! Pick 37 to Saints for Stevens. So according to Goodard, Crouch is worth 2 x 1st Rounders AND a 2nd Round compared to Papley just 1 late 1st round!

The amusing bit was Genius Goddard stumbled saying "This trade will enable Adelaide to have a plethora of pricks" (instead of picks), which a smiling Tom Brown quickly replied "I don't agree with that!"

Honestly, I don't want either of the Daniher and Papley's trades to happen when these sort of trade suggestions are thrown up by these biased dim wits disguised as experts!

Just a bit surprised that none of them mentioned that Carlton has really good coffee.

[Ludwig]

Agree with pretty much all of that, but one thing (or person) that I would add, is Callum Sinclair. It seems to me, that everybody has forgotten about how good a season he was having, before he got injured. And if Daniher arrives, he and Sinclair may be battling for one spot? That is, if Naismith is the number one ruckman, then those two will be going for the second ruck/big forward role. While Daniher has got more athleticism, Sinclair has probably got more heart. Which means that I would rather Sinclair in the team.

Interesting thoughts about Sinclair. He was quite good in 2018, but fell away a bit this year. He was still okay. The problem with Sinclair is we just lose too much in the ruck which isn't sufficiently offset by his work around the ground, as good as it is for a ruckman. When Franklin played, we managed well enough using Reid or Aliir as backups. If Naismith is fit, Sinclair looks out of a job, even without Daniher. He would be our backup ruckman, if Naismith is injured, or could fill a forward/ruck role if we are down on tall forwards.

I'm sympathetic to your views about choosing heart over talent. I would have preferred the whole Daniher thing never happened and we just continued on rebuilding the way we were going. I was enjoying seeing our drafted players develop, the change in game style to suit the new talent coming through, and was looking forward to a rebound next year. But now with a 'savior' being helicoptered in, it's a whole different vision. So far, I don't like, but I'll try to stay open minded.

[Melbourne_Blood]

If Carlton downgrades it's offer to 14 plus for Papley then let's walk away from that deal, hold him to his contract etc. I also am coming to the view that giving up too much for Daniher is not a good idea. This may well mean we never get him but that's less a risk than paying well over for him. Sometimes the best deal is a no deal. It's starting to look like that here. We should get two good players with the first two picks that we currently have.

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Or we could see if there is interest elsewhere , the kangas have pick 8 and have expressed an interest . They aren’t swimming in quality small forwards and there is the Shaw connection. Papleys manager has already said he will go to any Melbourne club , he’s just prefer Carlton. Heck, let’s get the Dees involved ! Pick 3 for paps and pick 25 ! Too optimistic ?


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[Aprilbr]

I like the Norf idea.

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[707]

Not sure how St Kilda has suddenly become a 'destination club', either?

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[ugg]

We should have tried to do the Pick Swap Adelaide are going to do with GWS
Pick 4 for 12 18 and 2020 1st

Unfortunately for us in this case the difference of one pick is significant. What GWS are trying to do is get pick 4 from the Crows so that Adelaide can’t use it, as expected, to bid on Tom Green.

If the Giants get their hands on pick 4 they can use it to pick someone else besides Green and still be able to match when the bid comes for Green. If they don’t trade and have to match Green they’ll have to use 12 and part of 18 to match. Looking at it this way they are basically getting pick 4 this year for their 2020 first rounder and losing whatever pick 18 would have been downgraded to when using to match Green.

All of this is dependent on Melbourne not bidding on Green at pick 3 though, something they can’t guarantee so it is a risk for GWS.

[Thunder Shaker]

Unfortunately for us in this case the difference of one pick is significant. What GWS are trying to do is get pick 4 from the Crows so that Adelaide can’t use it, as expected, to bid on Tom Green.

If the Giants get their hands on pick 4 they can use it to pick someone else besides Green and still be able to match when the bid comes for Green. If they don’t trade and have to match Green they’ll have to use 12 and part of 18 to match. Looking at it this way they are basically getting pick 4 this year for their 2020 first rounder and losing whatever pick 18 would have been downgraded to when using to match Green.

All of this is dependent on Melbourne not bidding on Green at pick 3 though, something they can’t guarantee so it is a risk for GWS.

If GWS make the floated trade (Adelaide's Pick 4 for their 12 18 and 2020 1st), it would decimate their draft picks so hard that they would not be able to draft Green except with pick 4. Their picks are currently 12, 18, 40, 60, 80, 94. 80 and 94 have no draft value. If that trade was made, they would have 4, 40, 60 to match bids on Green, but then would be constrained in drafting Green at pick 4.

The key here is matching bids by Melbourne at pick 3 (2234 points). With 12 and 18 (2253 points), they can match pick 3 without difficulty (12 and 18 would become pick 38 worth 465 points). They would have pick 3 (matched), 38, 40, 65 etc. If they traded out and matched pick 3 with pick 4 (2034 points), pick 4 would become pick 54 (220 points). They would have pick 3 (matched), 39, 54, 65 etc. It's significantly worse, even before considering they are without their 2020 first-round pick as well.

In short, I do not see that trade happening.

Pick 4 is worth 219 fewer points than 12 and 18 combined. The trade would be fairer if it did not include the Giants' 2020 first-round pick and Adelaide would need to send a late pick with their pick 4, equivalent to pick 54 (220 points). A possible trade: Adelaide 4 and 40 to GWS. GWS 12, 18 and GWS's 2020 4th-round pick to Adelaide. However, I do not see such a trade happening. 12 and 18 is sufficient for matching bids on Green.

[bloodspirit]

Reddit (the web-site) is built of many sub-reddits. Each one is a little like RWO, a collection of discussions about a specific topic.
So there is the afl sub-reddit , a Sydney Swans sub-reddit, a Sydney sub-reddit etc etc etc

Users typically subscribe to multiple sub-reddits and their Reddit front page has (by default) the more popular posts from those sub-reddits.

My take:
The Swans sub-reddit isn't quite as knowledgeable (no Liz) or popular as RWO, but you don't get the (dreaded by me) mega-threads like this one or the reserves one which are a PITA to read.
The AFL sub-reddit is much less toxic than Big Footy, often quite funny
Other sub-reddits have their own characters - the Sydney and Australia ones tend to be quite progressive, but I understand that (say) the uk one is quite right-wing

Hope that helps. Caution: You may find yourself watching a lot of videos of "animals being bros", or arguing with idiots.

Thanks for that helpful, lucid explanation, undy! Love the LRT avatar too.

Appreciate the explanations from about the Coodabeen Champions.

[AnnieH]

This is the most boring trade week EVAH!!!
Do we still have a team?

[Auntie.Gerald]

Yep kirky is coming out of retirement !!!

Lol