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Thread: 2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

  1. #1

    2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

    At last! It hasn't been 72 years but, here it is.

    I have pondered why I have not felt moved to kick this thread off sooner. I think it is at least partly because I anticipate less dramatic change or it's less clear what the change will be in the year ahead. Not that this thread has to be about change necessarily.

    My thoughts and comments:

    * my take on our latest off-season was that we rate our current list and have chosen to invest in them. We are trusting our youth to improve and that is the main way we are looking to improve our list. We have had the benefit of a number of first round draft picks (and even high first round draft picks) over the last several years: Jones, Heeney, Mills, Florent, Hayward (near enough to first round), Ling, Blakey as well as other young talent like Hewett, Aliir, Melican, Papley, Ronke, McCartin, Stoddart. And we have a proven track record developing talent. So this seems a sound strategy. We avoid paying premiums on the open market and our players are better schooled in our systems and game plans (conversely they have had less exposure to other ways of doing things).

    * the biggest point that comes to mind when thinking about our list management come the end of the year is that we will have a war chest to chase players, including big names, if we want to. Andrew Ireland said as much in his farewell interview although he declined to use the expression "war chest". We have had some big name players depart and more retirements are on the cards. Who will might we target? Where are our weaknesses? Will Heeney, Mills, Jones, Florent, Papley, Clarke etc fill the gaps in the midfield left by our departures? With Mitchell long gone and JPK aging, will we want a midfield bull or ball magnet?

    Retirements

    It seems almost certain that this will be Kieren Jack's last season and nearly as certain it will be Jarrad McVeigh's last season too. Heath Grundy might retire although I think it is more likely that he will go around again, depending on his form this year. Will Menzel's body last beyond the season? I don't think Nick Smith's future beyond the season is in question but I could be wrong.

    Contract extensions

    There aren't too many key players coming out of contract this season, perhaps in line with the recent trend of extending contracts well before they expire. Leaving aside the potential retirees, players who can expect contract extensions include: Cunningham, Jones, Cameron, Dawson, O'Riordan, Smith, Sinclair, and, probably, Fox. I can't see any of the best 22 players leaving although those that can't find a regular spot in the senior team may be targeted by our rivals and choose to go.

    Later this year we might start to think about extending the contracts of some of our younger players who are due to have contracts expire at the end of 2020 e.g. Hewett, Florent, Hayward, Papley, Ronke. I don't think we'd want to have them all unsigned at this time next year.

    Under the pump

    This year the acid will be on Maibaum, Rose and Pink. They all just got an extra year extension and are touch and go to be further extended depending on their seasons. Surely Rose will be delisted if he doesn't get another senior game. But if he can carry on with the form he showed in the 2018 NEAFL granny the future may be brighter. Would be good to see Maibaum start to dominate more at NEAFL level. He has been solid but hasn't done enough really to convince our list managers and get a decent contract. His future may depend a little on the form and fitness of Reg, Aliir and Melican too. Pink is a bit of an unknown. Due to injury, he hasn't shown anything since a promising rookie year in 2017 when he was still quite raw.

    Coaches

    On the coaching front we might expect to see Macca join the team if he retires, possibly at the expense of Laidler. Still we have had recent significant change among the coaches and I am not forecasting more. Will be interesting to see how Perris goes. He's really young, which I like.

    Other football staff and management

    It's to be hoped that Blakey and Beatson are not contemplating retirement or new challenges. Gardiner has just ascended to the head of football role and we will back him in. Ditto Harley as CEO, although he is more of a known quantity so we can expect to be happy with him. We've also renewed our recruiters in recent times already - Simon Dalrymple, Ross Monaghan, Chris Keane and the move to the greater focus on stats analysis. I'm not to up on the details of our other staff - although here is a handy list if you are keen to see who they are: Staff Listing - sydneyswans.com.au.

    * then there's the inaugural mid-season draft coming up in June. At this stage I don't think we have a space to use it but that could change if someone has a season ending injury.

    * when it comes to the 2019 draft I guess we'll see the rule changes and innovations that come about under live pick trading 2.0. The Academy player most on the radar seems to be Josh Rayner although I don't think he's currently projected to be a high pick. The brightest promise is being shown by Academy players eligible for the 2020 draft, particularly Errol Gulden and Braeden Campbell.

    * in terms of free agency there is not a lot of quality on offer - Stephen Coniglio being the stand out. Here's a recent article from afl.com.au explaining why this is so and listing the free agents that currently remain unsigned byeond 2019: Slimmer pickings? Why 2019's free agency crop is different - AFL.com.au. It might be more fruitful to examine who will be the free agents in 2020 and target them a year early.

    What are your thoughts? Which players should we chase? Where are our weaknesses - forward, back, midfield? Ruck seems ok if nobody goes anywhere. Do we need changes in the coaching ranks or among other staff? (Maybe save the 'Sack Horse' comments for a different thread and only comment on who you might want to replace him here.)

  2. #2
    Omg

    Iā€™m not mentally and emotionally ready yet šŸ˜‚

  3. #3
    I am interested in Nick Smith , never been a speedster so if he falls off a further 10-15% with age (now over 30) and injury he may be one who goes pretty quickly.

    As for next gen academy , I dont understand why Josh Rayner isnt being talked about that highly as he was the one swans academy that played in the all stars game on grand final day. He is a key position backman so likely the reason he isnt being touted that highly in the draft.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by bloodspirit View Post
    At last! It hasn't been 72 years but, here it is.

    I have pondered why I have not felt moved to kick this thread off sooner. I think it is at least partly because I anticipate less dramatic change or it's less clear what the change will be in the year ahead. Not that this thread has to be about change necessarily.

    My thoughts and comments:

    * my take on our latest off-season was that we rate our current list and have chosen to invest in them. We are trusting our youth to improve and that is the main way we are looking to improve our list. We have had the benefit of a number of first round draft picks (and even high first round draft picks) over the last several years: Jones, Heeney, Mills, Florent, Hayward (near enough to first round), Ling, Blakey as well as other young talent like Hewett, Aliir, Melican, Papley, Ronke, McCartin, Stoddart. And we have a proven track record developing talent. So this seems a sound strategy. We avoid paying premiums on the open market and our players are better schooled in our systems and game plans (conversely they have had less exposure to other ways of doing things).

    * the biggest point that comes to mind when thinking about our list management come the end of the year is that we will have a war chest to chase players, including big names, if we want to. Andrew Ireland said as much in his farewell interview although he declined to use the expression "war chest". We have had some big name players depart and more retirements are on the cards. Who will might we target? Where are our weaknesses? Will Heeney, Mills, Jones, Florent, Papley, Clarke etc fill the gaps in the midfield left by our departures? With Mitchell long gone and JPK aging, will we want a midfield bull or ball magnet?

    Retirements

    It seems almost certain that this will be Kieren Jack's last season and nearly as certain it will be Jarrad McVeigh's last season too. Heath Grundy might retire although I think it is more likely that he will go around again, depending on his form this year. Will Menzel's body last beyond the season? I don't think Nick Smith's future beyond the season is in question but I could be wrong.

    Contract extensions

    There aren't too many key players coming out of contract this season, perhaps in line with the recent trend of extending contracts well before they expire. Leaving aside the potential retirees, players who can expect contract extensions include: Cunningham, Jones, Cameron, Dawson, O'Riordan, Smith, Sinclair, and, probably, Fox. I can't see any of the best 22 players leaving although those that can't find a regular spot in the senior team may be targeted by our rivals and choose to go.

    Later this year we might start to think about extending the contracts of some of our younger players who are due to have contracts expire at the end of 2020 e.g. Hewett, Florent, Hayward, Papley, Ronke. I don't think we'd want to have them all unsigned at this time next year.

    Under the pump

    This year the acid will be on Maibaum, Rose and Pink. They all just got an extra year extension and are touch and go to be further extended depending on their seasons. Surely Rose will be delisted if he doesn't get another senior game. But if he can carry on with the form he showed in the 2018 NEAFL granny the future may be brighter. Would be good to see Maibaum start to dominate more at NEAFL level. He has been solid but hasn't done enough really to convince our list managers and get a decent contract. His future may depend a little on the form and fitness of Reg, Aliir and Melican too. Pink is a bit of an unknown. Due to injury, he hasn't shown anything since a promising rookie year in 2017 when he was still quite raw.

    Coaches

    On the coaching front we might expect to see Macca join the team if he retires, possibly at the expense of Laidler. Still we have had recent significant change among the coaches and I am not forecasting more. Will be interesting to see how Perris goes. He's really young, which I like.

    Other football staff and management

    It's to be hoped that Blakey and Beatson are not contemplating retirement or new challenges. Gardiner has just ascended to the head of football role and we will back him in. Ditto Harley as CEO, although he is more of a known quantity so we can expect to be happy with him. We've also renewed our recruiters in recent times already - Simon Dalrymple, Ross Monaghan, Chris Keane and the move to the greater focus on stats analysis. I'm not to up on the details of our other staff - although here is a handy list if you are keen to see who they are: Staff Listing - sydneyswans.com.au.

    * then there's the inaugural mid-season draft coming up in June. At this stage I don't think we have a space to use it but that could change if someone has a season ending injury.

    * when it comes to the 2019 draft I guess we'll see the rule changes and innovations that come about under live pick trading 2.0. The Academy player most on the radar seems to be Josh Rayner although I don't think he's currently projected to be a high pick. The brightest promise is being shown by Academy players eligible for the 2020 draft, particularly Errol Gulden and Braeden Campbell.

    * in terms of free agency there is not a lot of quality on offer - Stephen Coniglio being the stand out. Here's a recent article from afl.com.au explaining why this is so and listing the free agents that currently remain unsigned byeond 2019: Slimmer pickings? Why 2019's free agency crop is different - AFL.com.au. It might be more fruitful to examine who will be the free agents in 2020 and target them a year early.

    What are your thoughts? Which players should we chase? Where are our weaknesses - forward, back, midfield? Ruck seems ok if nobody goes anywhere. Do we need changes in the coaching ranks or among other staff? (Maybe save the 'Sack Horse' comments for a different thread and only comment on who you might want to replace him here.)
    Great post, bloodspirit, you've given us much to think about.

    I'm not technologically literate enough to know how to quote someone else's post in the one reply, but one of the few thoughts of yours that I'd be perhaps at variance with your own thinking is in regard to Nick Smith. As Mr Magoo said,

    > I am interested in Nick Smith , never been a speedster so if he falls off a further 10-15% with age (now over 30) and injury he may be one who goes pretty quickly.

    It hardly needs saying that I hope he doesn't lose speed or form, because I regard him highly; but I do agree with Mr Magoo that at that age, the slide can be quick.

  5. #5
    McVeigh for Brownlow RogueSwan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Odysseus View Post
    ... I'm not technologically literate enough to know how to quote someone else's post in the one reply, ...
    Tick the "+ button at the bottom right of the posts you wish to quote and then click " "Reply With Quote"
    "Fortunately, this is the internet, so knowing nothing is no obstacle to having an opinion!." Beerman 18-07-2017

  6. #6
    Warming the Bench
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    I agree we've shown a lot of faith in the young list we have. If we have some cash up our sleeves we may use it to tie up quality young players to longer term deals, which would be my preference unless we bring in quality (ala Bud). Not many quality free agents in next years crop, but as we saw at the end of last season contracted players are moving more freely (often the year before they become free agents). This year will be interesting to see the effect of losing a few experienced heads (Hannebery/Rohan) and who will lift to fill the void

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by RogueSwan View Post
    Tick the "+ button at the bottom right of the posts you wish to quote and then click " "Reply With Quote"
    Acknowledged with thanks, RogueSwan.

  8. #8
    Veterans List
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    Quote Originally Posted by mattybloods View Post
    I agree we've shown a lot of faith in the young list we have. If we have some cash up our sleeves we may use it to tie up quality young players to longer term deals, which would be my preference unless we bring in quality (ala Bud). Not many quality free agents in next years crop, but as we saw at the end of last season contracted players are moving more freely (often the year before they become free agents). This year will be interesting to see the effect of losing a few experienced heads (Hannebery/Rohan) and who will lift to fill the void
    But those experienced heads offered little last year. Shouldn't be too hard to fill the void.

  9. #9
    Senior Player
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    Stats showing we have a very young list, 70% are 24 and under, fourth youngest list or something like that.

  10. #10
    pr. dim-melb; m not f
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    Quote Originally Posted by 707 View Post
    Stats showing we have a very young list, 70% are 24 and under, fourth youngest list or something like that.
    And not fated to succeed very often, according to this Age article:

    https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/...15-p50y21.html
    He reminds him of the guys, close-set, slow, and never rattled, who were play-makers on the team. (John Updike, seeing Josh Kennedy in a crystal ball)

  11. #11
    I think rating our list about 9th best at the moment is fair. Hopefully we make finals but it would not surprise to narrowly miss. What's more promising about this article is that it acknowledges we are much better prepared for the future than Hawthorn and Geelong whose lists are rated similarly this year but projected to decline more than us in coming seasons.

    It does make me think that given the dismal projections for Gold Coast and the genuine talent they have in that club that they could be rich pickings for trade. The most gettable ones are perhaps not the ones most of interest to us (e.g. Day or Wright) and the best ones are either committed there (Weller, Miller, Swallow) or critical to their future and they will fight tooth and nail to keep (Bowes, Ainsworth, Brodie, Martin and Lukosius, Rankine, King, McLennan).

    The Bulldogs are another club potentially going nowhere much and who have talent worth targeting. Alternatively we could focus on a team nearer the top of the ladder who might not be able to hold on to all their talent due to salary cap squeeze. I think we would want to focus on midfield and Collingwood seem to have an abundance of riches and might not be able to play or pay them all - possibly same for Melbourne.

  12. #12
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    Reported that the Pies rearranged a number of contracts to ease the squeeze, Eddy won't let anyone good get to us!

    GWS have a couple of very big signings on significant money this year in Kelly and Coniglio but they did jettison a heap of players last trade period in preparation.

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