View Poll Results: Where will we finish?

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  • Flag

    0 0%
  • Finals

    2 15.38%
  • Just outside the 8

    9 69.23%
  • About where we are now

    2 15.38%
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Thread: Fixture and the run home - dare to dream?

  1. #1

    Fixture and the run home - dare to dream?

    I found myself pondering our run home and the chance of finals. To me it seems a long shot but not out of the question since we have turned our form around. Currently we stand on 5W/8L and 2 games plus percentage outside the 8. The key games to me seem to be the Essendon, Freo and Port games. They are our main rivals for a place in the 8 that can be dislodged. I think we need to get in front of at least two out of Freo, Port and Richmond (as well as the others between us) and so the results of these games (all away games) will be critical. Particularly if we can beat these three teams, 7/9 wins in the run home may well be good enough to play finals. If we can jag one of the games against Geelong or GWS then we can afford to drop another one somewhere else.

    How excited should we be? Or, when do we start getting excited? If we win our next three is that too soon? If we win those three AND then beat Freo we can definitely start getting excited and we might even be in the 8 before a fairly tough run from there.

    If we beat the Suns and Essendon, we may overtake Essendon that day and with a little luck in terms of other results reach 10th position.

    Otherwise, for the competition in general, it looks like the current top 6 should play finals and the top 4 will most likely remain the same.

  2. #2
    Senior Player
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    Quote Originally Posted by bloodspirit View Post
    I found myself pondering our run home and the chance of finals. To me it seems a long shot but not out of the question since we have turned our form around. Currently we stand on 5W/8L and 2 games plus percentage outside the 8. The key games to me seem to be the Essendon, Freo and Port games. They are our main rivals for a place in the 8 that can be dislodged. I think we need to get in front of at least two out of Freo, Port and Richmond (as well as the others between us) and so the results of these games (all away games) will be critical. Particularly if we can beat these three teams, 7/9 wins in the run home may well be good enough to play finals. If we can jag one of the games against Geelong or GWS then we can afford to drop another one somewhere else.

    How excited should we be? Or, when do we start getting excited? If we win our next three is that too soon? If we win those three AND then beat Freo we can definitely start getting excited and we might even be in the 8 before a fairly tough run from there.

    If we beat the Suns and Essendon, we may overtake Essendon that day and with a little luck in terms of other results reach 10th position.

    Otherwise, for the competition in general, it looks like the current top 6 should play finals and the top 4 will most likely remain the same.
    Yes, but week by week. (I'll start dreaming if we win the next three.)

  3. #3
    pr. dim-melb; m not f
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    Watching our newfound talent and commitment is exciting enough for me. Anything above 9 would be a wonderful bonus, but would require our best talent should we get there. I don't want to see a repeat of last year's flop - not being critical, just that them's the breaks.
    He reminds him of the guys, close-set, slow, and never rattled, who were play-makers on the team. (John Updike, seeing Josh Kennedy in a crystal ball)

  4. #4
    I did a ladder predictor earlier in the week. As you do. Had us scraping in to 8th spot. Champion data has us at 14% of making the 8 and finishing 11th.

    Category: | Herald Sun

    This year is a free hit after our first 7 weeks. No one expected us to make the eight. If we make it, (almost) everyone will be overjoyed to be there. If we don't we can turn our mind to draft picks.

    If we are going to miss, I'd rather stuff up now, focus on "playing the kids" and come as low as possible. However our draw means that's unlikely as we have a soft run coming up.

    Mind you it's Gold Coast this week and ...

  5. #5
    Veterans List dejavoodoo44's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bloodspirit View Post

    If we beat the Suns and Essendon, we may overtake Essendon that day and with a little luck in terms of other results reach 10th position.
    Actually, although it's long odds, we can go past Essendon this weekend. It needs a scenario along the lines of, we beat the Suns by 50 and Essendon lose to the Giants by 50. We then go ahead of them on percentage.

  6. #6
    Veterans List wolftone57's Avatar
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    I can see the Giants murdering the Dons. Us winning by 50 is not out of the question either

    Sent from my ANE-LX2J using Tapatalk

  7. #7
    Regular in the Side crackedactor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markwebbos View Post
    I did a ladder predictor earlier in the week. As you do. Had us scraping in to 8th spot. Champion data has us at 14% of making the 8 and finishing 11th.

    Category: | Herald Sun

    This year is a free hit after our first 7 weeks. No one expected us to make the eight. If we make it, (almost) everyone will be overjoyed to be there. If we don't we can turn our mind to draft picks.

    If we are going to miss, I'd rather stuff up now, focus on "playing the kids" and come as low as possible. However our draw means that's unlikely as we have a soft run coming up.

    Mind you it's Gold Coast this week and ...
    I will put my hand up as the crazy Swans supporter. I truly believe we are the best side in the comp. So yes, last week I placed money on the Swans to win the flag at 101/1. If we can keep the same side I am very confident we will win in 2020 at least.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by crackedactor View Post
    I will put my hand up as the crazy Swans supporter. I truly believe we are the best side in the comp. So yes, last week I placed money on the Swans to win the flag at 101/1. If we can keep the same side I am very confident we will win in 2020 at least.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    Good find getting 100 to 1. I put a coffee and a muffin on at 66 to 1 (all I can afford to lose).

    The team they may not beat is Port .

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by crackedactor View Post
    I will put my hand up as the crazy Swans supporter. I truly believe we are the best side in the comp. So yes, last week I placed money on the Swans to win the flag at 101/1. If we can keep the same side I am very confident we will win in 2020 at least.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    Remember to gamble responsibly

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by crackedactor View Post
    I will put my hand up as the crazy Swans supporter. I truly believe we are the best side in the comp. So yes, last week I placed money on the Swans to win the flag at 101/1. If we can keep the same side I am very confident we will win in 2020 at least.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    Not a gambler myself but love your spirit!

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Markwebbos View Post
    I did a ladder predictor earlier in the week. As you do. Had us scraping in to 8th spot. Champion data has us at 14% of making the 8 and finishing 11th.
    That's very optimistic compared to other models. The aggregate of 10 other models has us at 10%, which sounds about right to me.

    It would be a beautiful story, but I'm not fussed if we don't make it. I'm more expectant for next year, although I think we might still have trouble in the middle of the ground.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Beerman View Post
    That's very optimistic compared to other models. The aggregate of 10 other models has us at 10%, which sounds about right to me.

    It would be a beautiful story, but I'm not fussed if we don't make it. I'm more expectant for next year, although I think we might still have trouble in the middle of the ground.
    Rowbottom to the rescue! Hopefully he'll be back in seniors sooner rather than later. And in the meantime he'll just keep developing and improving! Along with all our other young mids.

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