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Thread: UMPIRES - FREE KICKS

  1. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Beerman View Post
    l. If you ask someone to pick a number between 1 and 100, there is a clear bias to odd numbers, but no-one is going to say 24 + 12 = 37 because of that bias.
    Ok, I might say it, but that’s just because I love Adam Goodes

  2. #26
    They are aware of subconscious bias because they have all the stats to show them.
    Umpires can change their interpretations in -match. They do this in the last 10 mins of close games, known as 'putting away the whistle'.

    So they know, they can change, it's just a question of 'do they want to'?

  3. #27
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    The bias might stem from something as simple as our colours. Red is often associated with danger or the 'bad guys'. Perhaps they see red and are therefore more likely to penalise us?

  4. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by barry View Post
    They are aware of subconscious bias because they have all the stats to show them.
    Umpires can change their interpretations in -match. They do this in the last 10 mins of close games, known as 'putting away the whistle'.

    So they know, they can change, it's just a question of 'do they want to'?
    But they don't *consciously* change their interpretations. If you asked them, they would say "we are aware that fewer free kicks are paid in the last 10 minutes. We train umpires to ignore the stage of the game and the margin, and be consistent and pay what's there".

    The problem is it doesn't work. So what's the answer? I'm not sure, but I'm happy to hear your thoughts (remember "They're aware of it and should just stop it" is a proven failure).

    I have read some crazy suggestions regarding blindfolded umpires, or umpires with video cameras relaying a feed to an off-site venue where someone makes decisions, but I'm yet to hear something that is practical.

    There is tons of interesting research around subconscious bias that they might be able to tap into. Perhaps there are some tricky psychological "hacks" they can use to overcome it, but what they are is not yet clear. It's a very tough problem and in an environment as difficult to control as a football game it becomes even harder.

  5. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Sun View Post
    The bias might stem from something as simple as our colours. Red is often associated with danger or the 'bad guys'. Perhaps they see red and are therefore more likely to penalise us?
    I've given that some thought over the years/decades. We have always been at the bottom of the table for the fors vs againsts. The main contributing factor would be the crowd noise but other than that the only other thing that I can think of is the attitude of our players or the colours of our uniforms. Maybe we should start wearing the majority white uniform?

  6. #30
    The data is telling. I'll love to get my hands on it and do some more analysis on it if anyone has the file. Just pm me if you have and can share. I'd like to look at colour, home ground influence and how the results vary over time. Also the relationship with other stats like inside 50s vs defense 50s etc. I can throw all the variables into a Random Forest model to predict frees for vs against differential and use the other variables as independent predictors. The model would show the proportion of variance explained for each input.

    Re the bias, my actual theory is that it's an effect similar to watching your team play. When I watch the swans I literally watch the swans not the other team. I'm one eyed. I think we get 'watched' or maybe it is the other way around.

  7. #31
    The DATA is certainly telling.
    To bring more awareness of it (as well as the scoreboard) maybe we (the cheer squad and others around the ground) could post the count on signs that are held up .
    Who cares if it will be labelled sour grapes.
    The Swans are simply not that percentage differential undisciplined to the mobs at the top of the free kick table.

  8. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Hotpotato View Post
    The DATA is certainly telling.
    To bring more awareness of it (as well as the scoreboard) maybe we (the cheer squad and others around the ground) could post the count on signs that are held up .
    Who cares if it will be labelled sour grapes.
    The Swans are simply not that percentage differential undisciplined to the mobs at the top of the free kick table.
    The thing is, that even if we are undisciplined, it doesn't explain why we get so few free kicks awarded to us. Other teams can be undisciplined too.

    Also, while game style and personnel (ie. undisciplined players) influences the free kick count, for the discrepancy to be so consistent over so many years speaks to a deeper problem. We've changed the team and play style plenty of times in the last 10 years, but the bias just doesn't change.

    I'd love to know what the AFL thinks of the data. They have acknowledged that crowd noise bias is a thing, but do they even acknowledge that there is a bigger problem for certain teams?

  9. #33
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    it continued last night but we won, no thanks to umps,but thanks to a poor demons

  10. #34
    I’m (and others) are just swapping the word undisciplined for BIAS.

  11. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Beerman View Post
    But they don't *consciously* change their interpretations.
    I believe they do.

    The problem is it doesn't work. So what's the answer? I'm not sure, but I'm happy to hear your thoughts (remember "They're aware of it and should just stop it" is a proven failure).
    .
    I don't think the AFL or umpires have seriously attempted to stop it, and until umps are full time professionals and it becomes a KPI, they won't.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by lwjoyner View Post
    it continued last night but we won, no thanks to umps,but thanks to a poor demons
    Yes. A game we totally dominated yet lost the free kick count by 8. Wow.

    Umps will think, "great job"

  12. #36
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    Melbourne even won the fantasy points 1557 to Sydney 1546!!!

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