UMPIRES - FREE KICKS

[Markwebbos]

The Hun have just published analysis of 20 years of free kick data by "Melbourne mathematician" John Marinopoulos

Category: | Herald Sun

"Marinopoulos, a mathematics and statistics guru from Value Advisory Partners, has analysed every free kick paid by AFL umpires in home-and-away matches since Round 1, 1997 when Port Adelaide joined the competition."

The report shows (some of this may NOT shock you):

• West Coast rank number 1 when playing at home
• The Bulldogs have ranked in the top 3 for 13 of the past 23 seasons in home frees and they were number 1 on the free kick register in 2016
• Sydney rank 18th this year for free kicks paid
• And we rank in the bottom 3 for away free kicks and overall free kicks over the last 20 years.

There's actually data you can download and graphs and all sorts. n.b. data excludes finals!

[neilfws]

Yet in those 20 years, we've made the most grand finals of those teams and won two of them.

It's almost as though on average, free kick counts had little effect on number of wins

[longmile]

Over it

[Sandridge]

The Hun have just published analysis of 20 years of free kick data by "Melbourne mathematician" John Marinopoulos

Category: | Herald Sun

"Marinopoulos, a mathematics and statistics guru from Value Advisory Partners, has analysed every free kick paid by AFL umpires in home-and-away matches since Round 1, 1997 when Port Adelaide joined the competition."

The report shows (some of this may NOT shock you):

• West Coast rank number 1 when playing at home
• The Bulldogs have ranked in the top 3 for 13 of the past 23 seasons in home frees and they were number 1 on the free kick register in 2016
• Sydney rank 18th this year for free kicks paid
• And we rank in the bottom 3 for away free kicks and overall free kicks over the last 20 years.

There's actually data you can download and graphs and all sorts. n.b. data excludes finals!

Our numbers in finals are no better! Some time ago, I researched the free kick figures for the final series when we were the team everyone wanted to win. I didn't think we got a charmed run like the 2016 Bulldogs but wanted the figures to prove it.

2005 finals free kicks: Swans 53 Opponents 70

2012 finals fee kicks: Swans 40 Opponents 52

No help for us there, even though we were the sentimental favourites in both games.

2016 finals free kicks: Swans 59 Opponents 82
2016 finals free kicks: Puppies 79 Opponents 48

[stevoswan]

2016 finals free kicks: Puppies 79 Opponents 48

....and we got eight frees in the GF, which means in the other three finals the Fairypups played in, their opposition received an average of around 13 frees in each game. We should have seen the writing on the wall....it was always going to be tough but what we got was a killer blow.

[stevoswan]

Also, our 59 frees for the 4 games we played, means we got 51 frees in the other 3 finals! An average of 17 for each game.....and then got 8 in the GF. As I said, a killer blow.

[Faunac8]

Yet in those 20 years, we've made the most grand finals of those teams and won two of them.
It's almost as though on average, free kick counts had little effect on number of wins

I find it hard to agree with that view and the fact that we only won two in twenty years is, in my opinion an under achievement to a degree. In a game where the umpires decision can at best be viewed as subjective, even a slight unrecognised bias has an impact. It would be interesting to see someone create a statistic that creates a points for value per free kick. For example what is the total score for divided by free kicks awarded for each team ? It may not be scientific or even valid but it may be illuminating. I refuse to pay for Ruperts Rags so don’t have ready. access to look into this

[S.S. Bleeder]

Yet in those 20 years, we've made the most grand finals of those teams and won two of them.

It's almost as though on average, free kick counts had little effect on number of wins

I would reword that as; we won two grand final despite an umpiring bias against us. In addition we would have won another in 2016 had there not been a very clear bias against us. We all knew that the umpires were going to look after them before the grand final, it was the most widely discussed topic on social media.

[S.S. Bleeder]

The Hun have just published analysis of 20 years of free kick data by "Melbourne mathematician" John Marinopoulos

Category: | Herald Sun

"Marinopoulos, a mathematics and statistics guru from Value Advisory Partners, has analysed every free kick paid by AFL umpires in home-and-away matches since Round 1, 1997 when Port Adelaide joined the competition."

The report shows (some of this may NOT shock you):

• West Coast rank number 1 when playing at home
• The Bulldogs have ranked in the top 3 for 13 of the past 23 seasons in home frees and they were number 1 on the free kick register in 2016
• Sydney rank 18th this year for free kicks paid
• And we rank in the bottom 3 for away free kicks and overall free kicks over the last 20 years.

There's actually data you can download and graphs and all sorts. n.b. data excludes finals!

Last yet again. What a surprise (not). I've got a chart which shows the frees for and against differential over the last 15 years. We are on the bottom by a country mile. We don't have the ability to attach files unfortunately so can't share it.

[KTigers]

It always seems to me that the AFL tiptoes around the umpires a lot. They are very loathe to criticise them. But do the umpires
themselves have the mental kahunas, or enough of a sense of professional pride to think to themselves as they are walking out
onto Optus Stadium (or it's predecessors in Perth), "hey, there are 50,000 people here and 49,500 are going for the Eagles, so I
really need to guard against getting sucked in by the crowd who will cry out for a Eagles free kick pretty much every time an
opposition player gets within 10M of the ball"? The stats say the answer is no.

[Beerman]

It always seems to me that the AFL tiptoes around the umpires a lot. They are very loathe to criticise them.

Rightly so. That doesn’t mean umpiring can’t be improved though. Sadly, the rightly maligned rules of the game committee doesn’t seem to consider ease of umpiring when looking at the game.

But do the umpires
themselves have the mental kahunas, or enough of a sense of professional pride to think to themselves as they are walking out
onto Optus Stadium (or it's predecessors in Perth), "hey, there are 50,000 people here and 49,500 are going for the Eagles, so I
really need to guard against getting sucked in by the crowd who will cry out for a Eagles free kick pretty much every time an
opposition player gets within 10M of the ball"? The stats say the answer is no.

They do actually. Haydn Kennedy discussed this in an interview he did on the AFL site. They are well aware of the problem, but as it is a subconscious bias, it is very hard to do anything about. Umpires are coached in ignoring crowd influence, and to not give “even-uppers”, but the problem persists and I don’t think anyone knows what to do.

It’s amusing and frustrating that fans think that only umpires have subconscious bias and that they are completely fair and impartial. . I’ve yet to hear a Swans fans explain the stats by saying “yeah, we’re a very dirty team - that’s why we’ve been so successful”.

[Agent 86]

Can't read the article (paywall), but here's a linked story in the Australian:
The Australian (delete your cookies if you're asked to pay)

Interestingly, the Dogs fare very well (esp. in 2016) & the stats don't even include finals

"They [the doggies] were also No 1 on the free kick register when they broke their 62-year premiership drought in 2016 and sit second overall for total frees since 1997.

For all home-and away-games this year, Collingwood have again enjoyed the most favourable free kick run. The bottom of the pile in 2019 are Richmond at home, St Kilda away, and the two Sydney teams overall.

The report does not include AFL finals matches."