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Thread: swans trajectory 2020 ?

  1. #1

    swans trajectory 2020 ?

    In short I am going with 10wins for 2020 which in my opinion is not a trajectory that is acceptable. We should have done everything we could to provide the Swans with the best opportunity to be up at 12wins plus via a compliment of experience brought in like the swans wanted to do with Moore, Langdon and Vandenberg end of 2018.
    It appears we have gone with an internal focus for 2020 and that concerns me re success at the Swans vs other teams that have been rebuilding on the run and much much higher on the ladder then us....We don’t appear to be providing ourselves the best opportunity in 2020 to rise up and be a top 8 team where any team needs to be to have a finals appearance.

    We won 8 games last season. Only 8 with minimal 2020 strategy response that is in alignment with a top8 finish.

    Other teams will also have similar organic / internal development just like us so that nets off in the main. GWS and the Pies will go to the next level after getting thru a season with so many injured. West Coast with kelly will be an incredible addition.
    Hawks will move up a couple wins and bombers with a JD and Fantasia injury free can add two more wins from 12 to 14 wins.

    I was looking thru our team list yest to see where the gaps are in comparison to the top teams. Ie we were 15th on the ladder and a very young team now that 4 veterans have retired (smith, Grundy, macca and jack)

    In any sport a team having a large % of high level decision makers means so much to performing and winning week in week out. We had that luxury with the 4 players listed above for over a decade and now they are gone. Hence when they didn’t get to play much in 2019 and two of them out totally we struggled and came 15th. That combined with such a young team hurt us.

    Whether it was at training or game day great decision makers influence the defence and attack tremendously. When a great decision maker gets the ball you just know to get on your bike and put in the extra effort because the reward for gut running is so high. Macca a great example of how composed our transitions looked when he was involved.

    BACKLINE:
    I thought we developed and matured fairly well for a backline developing on the run. Our defence held fairly well against such terrible clearance work in the midfield.
    We have now seen the first season for many years where our backline was very different in the way we exited. Dawson, Rampe, AA and Lloyd truly became players that controlled our transitions. Dawson and Rampe in particular enabled our backline and midfield to truly be effective in transition. These two boys got the hall a lot more and made it much less predictable for the opposition and much more predictable for our boys to run off them. Dawson also somewhat showed the signs of being a very good cut off defender shared with Mills. This was a serious gap for us at the Swans and we identified tom langdon as a recruit. We appear to have this covered now given dawson rise and rise. McCartin and reid swing roles are important through out a season.


    MIDFIELD:
    I must admit there are Indv players in our midfield I enjoy watching but when I comes to clearance and the speed of exit from the contest we are miles off a Richmond, Collingwood, geelong, west coast etc. kineear and another swans coach in the post season videos said we need more speed thru the inside mids. Yeah we do !!!
    Ollie has been discussed aswell as JB to help with this deficit. Our inside mids not being able to break like the top teams can is a problem and a big contribution to coming 15th on the ladder and only 8wins. Can anyone else see the answer to this problem for 2020 ? I can’t and I don’t see the two boys above sustaining a season like the top team fast inside mids. Our solutions appear to be more medium only g hey internal development which is a grave mistake I feel by our list management. Maybe Lewis Taylor can help and reinvent himself and so to paps with more of a midfield rotation each Rowbottom has been more talked about for a wing spot. Serious concern with limited solutions presented.

    Lastly though our ruckman re clearances. I really enjoyed the inclusion and flexibility of Hayden McLean to our squad and the 4 games he had After minimal pre season and knee injury. For peanuts we got a guy who can help our depth and help us continue our structures when injuries strike. But at 197cm he is not a first choice ruckman. Naismith big if. Sinkers tries hard but doesn’t not help our clearances sadly. Knoll May do a pykethis is a season away It appears minimum if at all ?? We have spent little in this area re dollars and we are one of the worst in clearances?? So why haven’t we fixed this problem ??????

    FOWARDS:
    In summary if our midfield can clear at 50/50 I feel that our forward line rotation is seriously competitive. Concern is still buddy at 33yrs and his soft tissue issues for 2020 and 2021.
    Buddy
    Reid
    Hayward
    Paps
    Heeney
    Blakey
    McCartin
    Rowbottom
    Taylor
    Dawson (minimal) more a HBF given our lack of cut defenders / transition playmakers off HBF
    Last edited by Auntie.Gerald; 19th October 2019 at 07:53 AM.

  2. #2

    Auntie,

    Auntie, we lost 2 games by a couple of points: we could have had 10 wins this year. If we can keep Buddy on the park and improve our young players a bit, we can get 12 wins next year. Teams we can beat: GC, Melb, St K, Freo, Ad, Port, Carlton,ESS, and maybe 1 or 2 who finished above us. Based on Trade Week, only WB and WC have strengthened significantly-StK maybe.
    Re: Midfield- who is JB?

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Roadrunner View Post
    Re: Midfield- who is JB?
    James Bell?

  4. #4
    I think that 2020 is shaping as another rebuild year. I expect that we will finish outside of the top 8 again. We have an opportunity to bring in some real midfield quality this draft with our first 3/4 picks. We did not go for a quick fix this trade period in the midfield. All of our energies were directed towards acquring Daniher. Of course this means we are a couple of years away at least from a serious tilt at it. It's doubtful now that Buddy will be still around to be part of our next premiership team.

    Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

  5. #5
    I think we are a quality midfielder or 2 short. However, if JPK rediscovers consistent top form, Parker continues to play well and our youngsters kick on, then you never know.

    The front and back ends of our roster look solid enough.

    Most probably the biggest determinate of where we finish will be the ability of our big guns to stay fit as we don't have the depth of some of the heavy hitters of the competition.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by goswannies View Post
    James Bell?
    Thanks goswannies- forgot about him!

  7. #7
    Agreed- if we get JD next year plus a midfield topliner, 2021 should be exciting,

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Roadrunner View Post
    Agreed- if we get JD next year plus a midfield topliner, 2021 should be exciting,
    Lions showed you don't even need a dominant KPF to make it far in the season. Their success was built off the back of an excellent midfield, solid defence with good rebound and speed and creativity in the forward line. That's why I think our recruitment needs to be focused on finding our Lachie Neale and Jarryd Lyons.

    Having said that, if the Lions had a dominant KPF, they in all likelihood, would've challenged for the flag this year. So if we can get at least one dominant mid and Daniher, I agree we will be challenging in 2021. Hopefully exciting times ahead!

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Dawg View Post
    Lions showed you don't even need a dominant KPF to make it far in the season. Their success was built off the back of an excellent midfield, solid defence with good rebound and speed and creativity in the forward line. That's why I think our recruitment needs to be focused on finding our Lachie Neale and Jarryd Lyons.

    Having said that, if the Lions had a dominant KPF, they in all likelihood, would've challenged for the flag this year. So if we can get at least one dominant mid and Daniher, I agree we will be challenging in 2021. Hopefully exciting times ahead!
    We showed in 2012 you don’t need a dominant KPF to win it. Sam Reid at 20 years age I think was ours.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  10. #10
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    We played this year with a long injury list and a number of players carrying nagging complaints most of the season. The early finish to the season with no finals allowed players to be put out early, everyone gets a longer time off.

    Given a lot of our now core group are young, we could reasonably expect them to have higher output next season and a fully fit Franklin and Naismith will add quite a lot.

    We'll get a bottom 6 draw, only GWS twice from the top teams and double ups against other bottom 6 sides. This should give us a level of wins to threaten the eight. I'm hopeful, although fingers crossed on the injury front, look what Brisbane built this year with a bottom draw and no injuries.

  11. #11
    Travelling Swannie!! mcs's Avatar
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    As long as we see progress from this year, I think that would not be a bad year. We lost a lot of close games this season, and hopefully we can jag a couple more of those next year at least to add to what organic progress we can hope to make. I don't feel we are likely to make finals (but waaaay to far out to really make any judgments), but as long as we see further signs to suggest we are moving in a positive direction. anywhere between about 10 and 13 wins is my expectation. 2021 is when I really think we should be expecting to see a serious upwards trajectory begin to take shape - if of course our list proves to be any good as a collective.
    "You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."

  12. #12
    For the record, we went 2-5 in close games (under 2 goals) this year. Close games are generally a toss of the coin, so I don't think we'll pick up more than 1 or 2 wins from close games next year.

    Round 8 Sydney v Essendon 5pts
    Round 9 North Melbourne v Sydney 5pts
    Round 10 Sydney v Collingwood 7pts
    Round 16 Essendon v Sydney 10pts
    Round 17 Sydney v Carlton 7pts
    Round 18 Fremantle v Sydney 1pt
    Round 19 GWS v Sydney 2pts

    I'm with the "pass mark = 10 wins with steady improvement" camp. I don't expect us to play finals next year, and I think the pressure to constantly play finals can leave a team in "limbo", like what's happened with Geelong and to a certain extent the Swans recently. I definitely want to see some midfielders coming through next year though, otherwise I think we are in deep trouble.

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