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Thread: swans trajectory 2020 ?

  1. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Wazza View Post
    Im more optimistic I predict 12-13 wins, many games we lost our team balance was off, dont underestimate the impact of losing Sinclair in ruck but also resting as a FWD.
    If you add Sinclair and Buddy, Allir back to defense bring in a second ruck and the team balance already looks better. Reid suddenly is second tall a role he performs much better, Hayward also comes back in so we start to look better in regards to balance & depth. If I try to build a team for 2020 and and we dont have early injuries, spots become tight and on paper looks pretty good but injuries can impact results - my guess 12 - 13 wins

    Naismith Parker Taylor

    Lloyd Rampe Allir
    Mills McCartin O'Riordan
    Florent Kennedy Dawson
    Hayward Reid Heeney
    Papley Franklin Blakey

    Sinclair Cunningham Robottom Hewett
    Melican Ronke Fox Stoddart Thurlow Clark Menzel McInerney Bell Mclean

    Cheers

    waz
    I hope you're correct, Waz! Lets be optimistic at this stage of the year.

    Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

  2. #26
    Our major structural problem is the ruck, and midfield.
    We may also have a problem with rebounding defender with Jones gone.

    Put simply, if Nainsmith plays every game, and a Heeney or Mills successfully goes into the midfield, we could substantially move back up the ladder.

    Otherwise, if Sinclair is our No.1 ruck, and the midfield stays the same.. Similar result to this year.

  3. #27
    I’m one of the most positive people in life but I have very little optimism for the swans 2020/21

    8 wins again in 2020 is an unacceptable trajectory for me........especially given the bites we have had trying to bring in experienced players 2018/2019 to balance out our squad

    I have us at 10 wins max next season but somewhere between 8-10 wins is likely

    We did not attract Moore, langdon, van den berg, JD end of 2018 season yet ear marked them as players and roles required in our starting 22

    The concern for me is that our trajectory in performance is being pushed out side always and or reverse as it did in 2019 especially vs other teams internal development and external traded in players.

    If Moore, langdon and van den berg played for us in 2019 we would have been closer to 11/12 wins in my opinion and that is an acceptable season and leaves u close to the action of finals

    And why not?
    Why not provide the best opportunity for our swans to be playing finals 2019/20/21 ?

    Why do we accept going in reverse when we don’t have to ? Is there something wrong with Sydney as a destination for the trades players we want ?

    Has our top pick recruiting the last 6 years or so like towers, Rohan, Jetta etc been significantly below par in our picks ........has this contributed to our 15th position on the ladder in 2019 ?

    It would be fascinating to see who the players were The players a few either side of Jetta, Rohan, Towers etc ?

    Geelong came 1st past the post in a rebuild season via trading predominantly

    The pies have been seriously consistent last couple seasons via a few years of strong trades while rebuilding while suffering massive injury lists

    Hawks decided trades was key to their rebuild and so far have kept the close to the action at 9th in 2019

    I feel that we are well off the pace and going backwards and sideways on a trajectory that is unacceptable. Every team is developing internally so that is relative already. Trades and or elite drafting is what seperates team. For me a player like Serong doesn’t so that for us if we land him

    I don’t see our team being in the top 4 team with organic internal development .......I don’t see this happening for a few years because we have not diversified our squad like geelong, pies and hawks etc have

    That’s unacceptable for me

    We have been very active in our attempted trades last two seasons .....but no success and no clear plan B in this trade period for other trade options that provide us a much more competitive squad

  4. #28
    Yes, the club has transitioned from secretive trading. (ie buddy, JPK, etc) to open speculative trading (Daniher, Moore), but without landing anyone. (like lolNorf).

    Lets not be like North Melbourne.

  5. #29
    This time last year I predicted, with great caution, that the Swans would finish 9th and just miss the eight. I was howled down as a heretic / doomsayer.

    I'm more optimistic about 2020 and think we might make the finals, based largely on (1) organic improvement, look at Ollie's last few games of the year when he played inside the contest (2) having a fit ruckman (3) getting a soft draw.

    I think you can divide season 2019 into 3 parts:

    Rounds 1-7. Swans were rubbish. Didn't get it together, went 1-6
    Rounds 8-15. We finally started playing competitive football. 5-2 including beating the premiers convincingly and our nemesis Hawthorn.
    Rounds 16-23. We played without a ruckman (or with Hayden Maclean), Buddy barely played etc. 2-6 but 4 of those losses were by 10 points or less.

    If we were to halve the first 7 rounds, keep the middle and win half of the close games we lost at the end (assuming we have a ruckman) that would give us 3+5+4 = 12 wins.

    I think with injuries on our side, we'll win 11-12, could sneak into the 8. Feels like a middle six side. I'm hoping in 2021 we'll be back up where we belong

  6. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Auntie.Gerald View Post
    I’m one of the most positive people in life but I have very little optimism for the swans 2020/21

    8 wins again in 2020 is an unacceptable trajectory for me........especially given the bites we have had trying to bring in experienced players 2018/2019 to balance out our squad

    I have us at 10 wins max next season but somewhere between 8-10 wins is likely
    Are positivity and optimism the same thing? It appears not....

    I have us improving considerably. With us at the moment, it's more about natural development/improvement of a talent stacked young squad, not seeking outside solutions to fill gaps or boost experience. This approach has worked for us in the past.....when we didn't have the talent laden squad that we have now. If the young one's don't deliver, we may be in trouble.....but I have faith.
    Last edited by stevoswan; 23rd October 2019 at 11:47 AM.

  7. #31
    Hi AG, I share your disappointment with the trade period but not nearly to the same degree.

    I don't regard trading as an essential part of building a successful list, although certainly the Swans, more than most, have demonstrated how effective it can be in the past. It has to be recognised that it may not be easy to convince established players to come to Sydney and that is not something we have total control of (although I'm sure there are things we can do to address it). The loss of COLA may be hurting us in this regard to.

    Apart from that I am more bullish about our future prospects than you, especially hopeful regarding 2021. I think we'll improve on our 8 wins next year and improve further in 2021 by which time I expect us to play finals.

    Finally, there is a difference between building a list to play finals and building a list to contend for the flag. Yes, maybe trading some players in the past two trade seasons might have allowed us to play finals this year but might it have been at the cost of lesser chances to win a flag in seasons to come. I am happy we are showing faith and keeping patient with a young developing group, who are indeed showing a lot of promise, and want to see how it unfolds. Eight wins this year was not enough and was clearly not expected by the club but there were some factors that went a fair way to explaining those results (mostly the absence of our experienced players and hence fielding very young teams who were nevertheless competitive).

  8. #32
    I think our performance in 2019 reflected a lack of depth on the club's roster. Our best 22, fit and in form can match it with the other side's.

    As soon as we had a key injury or loss of form, we were struggling to find quality replacements.

    Hence why our chances in 2020 will be dictated by our injuries and form as I still don't see much depth in our roster.

  9. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Dawg View Post
    I think our performance in 2019 reflected a lack of depth on the club's roster. Our best 22, fit and in form can match it with the other side's.

    As soon as we had a key injury or loss of form, we were struggling to find quality replacements.

    Hence why our chances in 2020 will be dictated by our injuries and form as I still don't see much depth in our roster.
    I think that's an astute observation RD

  10. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcs View Post
    I must sit and watch the 2012 DVDs again - so many fond memories from that year. So many damn fine wins along the way, but the day I remember the most funnily enough was the loss to Hawthorn late in the season at the SCG. That was the day I truly believed we could win the flag - I remember turning to my mate on the way out and saying we could win the flag, and that it would be us and the Hawks on the last day in September. I am rarely right with my predictions, but I was that year.
    I seem to remember reading that Buddy shining to us as a club developed from that match. A twilight match, right? I remember a sea of red in the O'Reilly, bathed in the late afternoon sun.

  11. #35
    Hi Auntie, I think you are a bit harsh! The players you mention we tried to draft but they decided to stay with their clubs, which is fair enough. You also included JD and we did as best we could without selling the farm. Clearly there is not much point in trading in players who are not quite up to the mark as they won’t help us win a flag. The hawks have gone for talented though injured trades and time will tell if this works out. We on the other hand are banking on developing our youngsters and hopefully this will work but there are no guarantees. Richmond were smart and lucky they were able to get some top players in but their younger brigade also stepped up and this is the formula leading to success. I’m optimistic about next year and certainly 2021, especially if we can then obtain a fit JD.

  12. #36
    Travelling Swannie!! mcs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MattW View Post
    I seem to remember reading that Buddy shining to us as a club developed from that match. A twilight match, right? I remember a sea of red in the O'Reilly, bathed in the late afternoon sun.
    Yep was a big crowd and a twilight match, and a good atmosphere too.
    "You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."

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