2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[KSAS]

i heard Sam Edmund on SEN say Pruess has officially requested Melbourne FC he wants to leave for more senior opportunities. Sam thinks GWS is the best fit for him (not discounting us). Mumford announcing he'll go around another year (turning 35) where he'll be used as a backup ruckman and also performing off field development role.

[Markwebbos]

Right on. The compensation for an RFA is directly related to the $ they are offered yet the AFL moves in mysterious ways and is not very transparent. Brad Crouch will now be less attractive to potential suitors.

There is an element of sorcery about how the AFL determines condo picks (as they are now known).

[707]

A BIG thank you to Brad Crouch being caught by police at 5.15am in the city carrying illicit substance/s.

It was a longish shot that a club would offer the injury prone midfield accumulator enough $ and years to get him into Band 1 and therefore pick 2, after Mr.Plod nabbed him I'd say no way he gets enough for pick 2. Crows BF board fuming, they already had pick 2 spent!
Thanks Brad, we owe you :-)

Tyson Stengle also caught with with drugs Brad just six months after blowing .125 driving an unregistered car. Seems the four match club suspension has sorted his priorities - not! Must be exasperating for the AFC.

[Ralph Dawg]

It was the players you chose, Florent, Hayward and Hewett, which I thought was unrealistic. We know these three are among the least likely to be on the trading table.

A ruckman is likely to cost a 2nd or 3rd round pick, probably from next year's draft. The main candidates would be Preuss, Wright, Coleman-Jones, Ladhams and Chol. I'm not sure what price tag PA would have on Ladhams. He might cost us a trade of our pick 3 since they would love to get a 1st round pick ahead of NGA draft pick Lachlan-Jones (around a pick 10). So a trade for Ladhams would likely involve giving up our pick 3 and getting a 2nd rounder back and maybe something else.

I've commented often that the Joe Daniher decision is the first piece in the puzzle that will have to be determined. If he does sign with the Swans, it's not worth arguing about his fitness. We just have to assume the medicos have sorted that out. Daniher obviates the need to try to get a KPF with pick 3, so I would be more inclined to trade it out with Ladhams being my prime target. We would get back enough points to cover the bids on both Campbell and Gulden.

Daniher, Ladhams, Campbell and Gulden, plus keeping our 2021 picks intact, seems a good outcome to me, and one that puts us in finals contention next year.

Daniher coming for nothing gives us an elite KPF and opens more options on the ruckman side of things. No Daniher will likely mean that we have to cut into our 2021 draft and make a couple of other moves as well, but not necessarily anything major.

That's about the best summary I can do at this point. I've been clear that I don't think we should use our pick 3 for anything other than McDonald or Thilthorpe, and there's a question about their availability at pick 3. Keeping pick 3, IMO would mean that we got Daniher and a ruckman other than Ladhams. We then take pick 3 to the draft and take the best available player, which puts Hollands into the mix. Whatever the damage to our 2021 draft, so be it. The 2020 haul would be so big that we can forgo 2021 as an important draft year.

Just to further explain my thinking:

If the club decides they don't want to sacrifice the 2021 draft or future pick round 2/3 is not enough to get a deal done, yet we still need a ruckman (which I think we all agree on) then who can we give up who has value?

Looking at our list, I think one of our midfielders or small / medium forwards are the most logical given we're about to acquire 2 if not 3 highly talented ones. As I said before, can't possibly play them all. So of our existing ones who has currency and can also free up cap space?

It's just a thought but AFL is pretty cut throat these days and being a coach's favourite or having a freshly minted contract is no longer protection.

[Ludwig]

Just to further explain my thinking:

If the club decides they don't want to sacrifice the 2021 draft or future pick round 2/3 is not enough to get a deal done, yet we still need a ruckman (which I think we all agree on) then who can we give up who has value?

Looking at our list, I think one of our midfielders or small / medium forwards are the most logical given we're about to acquire 2 if not 3 highly talented ones. As I said before, can't possibly play them all. So of our existing ones who has currency and can also free up cap space?

It's just a thought but AFL is pretty cut throat these days and being a coach's favourite or having a freshly minted contract is no longer protection.

I understand your thinking on this. We both agree that we will have some good depth in the midfield once Campbell and Gulden come on board. We just have a different approach on how to deal with it. RWO is also split on their evaluations of Florent and Hayward, which will affect decisions on how best to build our midfield.

I'm looking at 2 key points:

1. With few retirements in the coming years, there's going to be some stiff competition for the few spots that open up in the midfield.
2. Now is the time to increase the age demographic on our list and build experience into the playing group. It doesn't pay to turnover the list by replacing players coming into their prime years with more teenagers.

After this year, we can ease up on the draft, give some time for our younger players to develop and get some AFL playing time. In a couple of years we will have a better idea about who we should keep and who should be let go.

From a list management perspective, if we can accomplish adding a key forward and a ruckman this year, we can go into a couple of years of consolidation in the next 2 draft periods. A lot of things can happen in this period, but I don't think going to the draft in a big way is one of them. I see this year as a completion of a 5 year heavy emphasis on the draft. The next couple of years should reveal the success or failure of this strategy and the specific choices that were made.

[Ralph Dawg]

I understand your thinking on this. We both agree that we will have some good depth in the midfield once Campbell and Gulden come on board. We just have a different approach on how to deal with it. RWO is also split on their evaluations of Florent and Hayward, which will affect decisions on how best to build our midfield.

I'm looking at 2 key points:

1. With few retirements in the coming years, there's going to be some stiff competition for the few spots that open up in the midfield.
2. Now is the time to increase the age demographic on our list and build experience into the playing group. It doesn't pay to turnover the list by replacing players coming into their prime years with more teenagers.

After this year, we can ease up on the draft, give some time for our younger players to develop and get some AFL playing time. In a couple of years we will have a better idea about who we should keep and who should be let go.

From a list management perspective, if we can accomplish adding a key forward and a ruckman this year, we can go into a couple of years of consolidation in the next 2 draft periods. A lot of things can happen in this period, but I don't think going to the draft in a big way is one of them. I see this year as a completion of a 5 year heavy emphasis on the draft. The next couple of years should reveal the success or failure of this strategy and the specific choices that were made.

That's all fair enough. I really hope the strategy being pursued by the club pays off in the next few years. It really sucks being at the bottom.

[Aprilbr]

Some great comments and analysis in recent posts! My views for what they are worth are as follows:
1. I sincerely doubt that we will trade Pick 3 and I don't think that we should.
2. I don't think Adelaide will get an additional pick ahead for us for Crouch.
3. We go for best player available, preferably tall forward, with Pick 3.
4. We bring in the 2 academy boys.
5. We get best available ruckmen from the second hand ones available but don't sell the farm to get him.
6. We don't trade any of our young stars including Oli, Hayward or Hewitt. Latter is the only possibility for trade as out of contract. If he wants to go (doubtful), he is worth a second rounder although very valuable to us. This could be used to cover points shortfalls.

[bloodspirit]

I must apologise if I have inadvertently started the Hewett leaving rumour. I say this because I think I was the first to mention it. I can't remember now why I was speculating about it (might have been some kind of a guess after someone said we were going after Crouch) but it's not something I ever thought would happen, let alone had any knowledge of. Norisit something I would like to see happen, I think George is excellent and just what we need. I don't know what possessed me. Can we please just dismiss this as ridiculous jibber jabber?

[bloodspirit]

AFL trades news 2020: Braydon Preuss Melbourne deal, contract GWS Giants, working with Max Gawn | Fox Sports

I guess another way we could pay for Preuss is by using our second round pick and hopefully getting something going back the other way. Would mean going further into deficit for 2021 unless we find a way of getting some points back somewhere else. I don't have a problem with selling out of the 2021 draft, although I'd prefer to keep our 2021 first rounder.

Conversely, one way we might be able to unlock a substantial amount of value would be to trade our 2021 first round pick. We could split it for a pick this year and a pick next year maybe?

[Melbourne_Blood]

AFL trades news 2020: Braydon Preuss Melbourne deal, contract GWS Giants, working with Max Gawn | Fox Sports

I guess another way we could pay for Preuss is by using our second round pick and hopefully getting something going back the other way. Would mean going further into deficit for 2021 unless we find a way of getting some points back somewhere else. I don't have a problem with selling out of the 2021 draft, although I'd prefer to keep our 2021 first rounder.

Conversely, one way we might be able to unlock a substantial amount of value would be to trade our 2021 first round pick. We could split it for a pick this year and a pick next year maybe?

Interesting re Preuss. His HO and HO to advantage stats are on par with Gawns in the few games he has played as the sole ruckman.

It would be great if we could land him, future second round and something coming back to us sounds fair.


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[Ralph Dawg]

Interesting re Preuss. His HO and HO to advantage stats are on par with Gawns in the few games he has played as the sole ruckman.

It would be great if we could land him, future second round and something coming back to us sounds fair.


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Future second for Preuss + their 62 and 63 this year. Nets us about 250 points for matching academy bid.

[Aprilbr]

Future second for Preuss + their 62 and 63 this year. Nets us about 250 points for matching academy bid.

Seems a good solution for us, Ralph. It would seem that we are in a fight with GWS for his services so lets see which Club he prefers. As they are probably closer to their next final than us (arguable after their finish this season), he may opt for them. However, we maybe in a better position than them to offer him a higher salary.