2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

**bloodspirit** · 9th March 2020, 11:34 AM

Originally Posted by Ralph Dawg

Watched the first half of Carlton v Lions yesterday and it was the best I've seen Paddy Dow play. If we do end up losing Paps to Carlton (really hope we don't!), I wonder whether he could be part of a suitable trade package given that this year's draft is full of F/S and NGA's.

e.g. Dow + 2nd rounder?

You're dreaming! As in Carlton give us Dow + 2nd rounder for Papley? Can NOT see that happening. Can't see them parting with their #3 (or whatever it was) draft pick at all. Why would they? They need him.

**bloodspirit** · 9th March 2020, 12:02 PM

Originally Posted by bloodspirit

I mostly agree with you, Aprilbr. But I think GWS had more generous initial draft concessions than Gold Coast.

Originally Posted by barry

I think it was the other way around. Gold Coast was a long term plan by the AFL where a number of different approaches were thought out, and then when North refused to move at the last minute causing an uneven number of teams, AFL quickly scrambled together the GWS option.

Giants had more generous salary cap allowances, were allowed bigger lists, got additional picks in the rookie draft the year prior to entering the competition (the first 8 instead of first 5) compared to Gold Coast. In addition to this, the Giants critically got access to the best two underage players in the 2012 and 2013 'mini-drafts' and priority access to uncontracted players from other clubs. By canny trading of these additional concessions they were able to draft 11 of the top 14 players in the 2011 national draft (1,2,3,4,5,7,9,10,11,13,14) compared to 8 of the top 14 for GC in the 2010 draft (1,2,3,7,9,10,11,13) and, overall, better other players (Ward, Davis, Scully etc compared to Gary Ablett, Campbell Brown, Nathan Bock, Michael Rischitelli and Josh Fraser). So, not a difference of night and day, but multiple significant differences in their drafting concessions that added up. Which is not to suggest that this was the major reason for GWS' subsequent greater success. I think GWS drafting strategy proved wiser, and they set up a better culture (Ward and Davis were brilliant recruits in this regard) and probably had better coaches and football staff.

What are the take aways for us and our list management? One, high draft picks/talented players are not enough. Two, the off-field and culture components are important. This century we have excelled in this space. Do we need to worry this has changed, or is our dip to 15th on the ladder for other reasons? Three, arguably it could be inferred that you need a nucleus of elite talent to develop a champion team although these two case studies are a pretty thin basis for making this anyway unoriginal argument. So, the question arises, have we got that talent? And the answer will reveal itself in time but we certainly have a great group of young, promising players. We will see whether they and we can turn their promise into sustained success.

**stevoswan** · 9th March 2020, 12:07 PM

Originally Posted by barry

Everything GWS gets mentioned, the 2nd element post silly stuff like above.
Many people on RWO have a range of opinions on GWS from denial, hate, to respect, and like.

Which, frankly, is quite normal for any football fan.....having said that, I am certainly not against discussing other teams, especially our neighbour.....and learning from the way others operate.

**stevoswan** · 9th March 2020, 12:27 PM

Originally Posted by bloodspirit

Giants had more generous salary cap allowances, were allowed bigger lists, got additional picks in the rookie draft the year prior to entering the competition (the first 8 instead of first 5) compared to Gold Coast. In addition to this, the Giants critically got access to the best two underage players in the 2012 and 2013 'mini-drafts' and priority access to uncontracted players from other clubs. By canny trading of these additional concessions they were able to draft 11 of the top 14 players in the 2011 national draft (1,2,3,4,5,7,9,10,11,13,14) compared to 8 of the top 14 for GC in the 2010 draft (1,2,3,7,9,10,11,13) and, overall, better other players (Ward, Davis, Scully etc compared to Gary Ablett, Campbell Brown, Nathan Bock, Michael Rischitelli and Josh Fraser). So, not a difference of night and day, but multiple significant differences in their drafting concessions that added up. Which is not to suggest that this was the major reason for GWS' subsequent greater success. I think GWS drafting strategy proved wiser, and they set up a better culture (Ward and Davis were brilliant recruits in this regard) and probably had better coaches and football staff.

Another mistake GC made was panicking early and getting rid of McKenna.....set the club on a downward spiral for a number of years. Less than effective administrators looking for a scapegoat to save themselves. Typical of most 'managers'.....just self serving scum. They have a good coach again now.....so Suns, no more panicked decisions.

**Ralph Dawg** · 9th March 2020, 01:06 PM

Originally Posted by bloodspirit

You're dreaming! As in Carlton give us Dow + 2nd rounder for Papley? Can NOT see that happening. Can't see them parting with their #3 (or whatever it was) draft pick at all. Why would they? They need him.

Dow has underperformed. Carlton well stocked for players of his ilk, but still would love Papley, one of the top small forwards in the game. Just a thought bubble, but I would say Paps would be considered more valuable than Dow.

**bloodspirit** · 12th March 2020, 06:39 PM

Tom Harley on webinar says:

* at this stage, despite coronavirus, very much expecting the season will be played. Will be very surprised if that doesn't happen.

* in relation to question about areas of list need: might want greater experience and depth in the midfield. We have good forward line. We have a developing backline. "The genesis of our next really good team is on our list."

* Happy with talent coming through Academy. Continues to grow.

* GWS list is at a different stage to ours. They have built a list over a number of years. They have a lot of players in the peak 25-29 year age and experience profiles.

* Effort is a "non-negotiable" at our club. [What does that mean? Brett Kirk described our performance v GWS as unacceptable and that was no doubt at least partly due to effort. What does it mean when the "non-negotiable" happens?]

Otherwise (and mostly), very generic, fluffy stuff. Not so different from Horse. Even pulled out the "I take it a week at a time" in relation to question he could have hit out of the park ("what are the fixture highlights this season?")

**Mark26** · 12th March 2020, 08:03 PM

Originally Posted by bloodspirit

Tom Harley on webinar says:

* at this stage, despite coronavirus, very much expecting the season will be played. Will be very surprised if that doesn't happen.

* in relation to question about areas of list need: might want greater experience and depth in the midfield. We have good forward line. We have a developing backline. "The genesis of our next really good team is on our list."

* Happy with talent coming through Academy. Continues to grow.

* GWS list is at a different stage to ours. They have built a list over a number of years. They have a lot of players in the peak 25-29 year age and experience profiles.

* Effort is a "non-negotiable" at our club. [What does that mean? Brett Kirk described our performance v GWS as unacceptable and that was no doubt at least partly due to effort. What does it mean when the "non-negotiable" happens?]

Otherwise (and mostly), very generic, fluffy stuff. Not so different from Horse. Even pulled out the "I take it a week at a time" in relation to question he could have hit out of the park ("what are the fixture highlights this season?")

Thanks Bloodspirit. I missed the webinar completely. Too busy cooking dinner and forgot!

**KSAS** · 23rd March 2020, 05:52 PM

Last Friday i heard the AFL won't be rubber stamping any new player contract deals for the foreseeable future. Players can still conduct negotiation talks with clubs, but that's hardly likely considering the AFL is in survival mode now it seems.

**rb4x** · 27th March 2020, 08:17 AM

On the AFL website it is suggested that Sydney will be interested in recruiting Campbell, Gulden and Rossman in the 2020 draft. In the likely event that no more football is played this year then I would expect that the draft order will be a repeat of 2019 which would also give Sydney pick 4 which would likely before a bid on any of the above three players. All things being equal (which they are not) I would expect Sydney to draft four players. The question is who would you delist to make room for those players given they will have had no opportunity in 2020 to show their wares. Senior players including Fox, Thurlow, Clarke, Stoddart, Ling, Foot, Maibaum and Melican could all be facing the axe without playing a game in 2019 through no fault of their own plus all of the rookie list would also be very nervous. There might not even be a NEAFL in 2021 the way things are looking. Could be some very tough decisions coming up.

**bloodspirit** · 27th March 2020, 10:28 AM

Originally Posted by rb4x

On the AFL website it is suggested that Sydney will be interested in recruiting Campbell, Gulden and Rossman in the 2020 draft. In the likely event that no more football is played this year then I would expect that the draft order will be a repeat of 2019 which would also give Sydney pick 4 which would likely before a bid on any of the above three players. All things being equal (which they are not) I would expect Sydney to draft four players. The question is who would you delist to make room for those players given they will have had no opportunity in 2020 to show their wares. Senior players including Fox, Thurlow, Clarke, Stoddart, Ling, Foot, Maibaum and Melican could all be facing the axe without playing a game in 2019 through no fault of their own plus all of the rookie list would also be very nervous. There might not even be a NEAFL in 2021 the way things are looking. Could be some very tough decisions coming up.

Thurlow, Clarke and Fox, in that order, would be the first cabs off the rank, I reckon. Fox only because we have to delist some players and he's the clear utility journeyman who doesn't look like he'll ever get a long AFL career but who offers a great depth option. There's a chance we trade Papley away, although that might again be contingent on trading in someone to replace him, so that could balance out. Maybe one of Maibaum/Melican/Stoddart/Ling might be next. Could depend also on who we are looking at getting in the door. If we trade or intend to draft KPDs then the risk for Maibaum and Melican is heightened. I don't know anything about Rossman, but Campbell and Gulden are both small midfielders who might be played forward which might increase the risk for Foot (and also Wicks, although you haven't talked about the rookies. Though come to think of it Maibaum is a rookie now too).

**707** · 27th March 2020, 03:59 PM

How big will AFL lists be next year? Plenty of talk they will be trimmed down.

Maybe there is no draft this year and the AFL uses this as the opportunity to finally do what lots of people have been calling for, draft age out to 19. Draftees will be more mature, less likely to suffer homesickness, will have a year of playing against men so easier to work out who will transition better to AFL.

2020 is not the time to have a false bounce up the ladder if it ends up a very much shortened mickey mouse season, better to languish in high draft pick territory and get a pick in before Campbell gets a bid.