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Thread: Great expectations

  1. #37
    Revisor of revisionisms Ruck'n'Roll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevoswan View Post
    On the one hand I hear opinions that Kennedy is done, on the other there's the expectation that Buddy's season 2020 performances will match his 2020 pay packet.
    I for one don't agree with either.

    During the season just completed both players missed games, with very different effects on the team.

    Buddy:
    The Swans averaged 76 points overall, 81 points when he played and 73 points when he didn't - we were what seems to me to be a modest 8 points better off with him in the team. Which is odd because he averaged 18 points per game.
    So the team collectively covered for more than half his output when he was absent.

    Joey:
    The Swans averaged 370 possessions per game overall, but in Joeys absence they averaged 340 possessions per game. 30 possessions per game less. But Joey averaged 26 disposals per game. This is equally as significant.
    The figures suggest that not only was the team unable to cover for Joey's absence at all (possession wise), but his absence may also have reduced the output of others.

    Of course statistics never tell the full story (btw these came from footywire) but to paraphrase Chris Keane they should at least raise questions.
    Last edited by Ruck'n'Roll; 11th December 2019 at 04:53 PM.

  2. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by Ruck'n'Roll View Post
    On the one hand I hear opinions that Kennedy is done, on the other there's the expectation that Buddy's season 2020 performances will match his 2020 pay packet.
    I for one don't agree with either.

    During the season just completed both players missed games, with very different effects on the team.

    Buddy:
    The Swans averaged 76 points overall, 81 points when he played and 73 points when he didn't - we were what seems to me to be a modest 8 points better off with him in the team. Which is odd because he averaged 18 points per game.
    So the team collectively covered for more than half his output when he was absent.

    Joey:
    The Swans averaged 370 possessions per game overall, but in Joeys absence they averaged 340 possessions per game. 30 possessions per game less. But Joey averaged 26 disposals per game. This is equally as significant.
    The figures suggest that not only was the team unable to cover for Joey's absence, but his absence may also have reduced the output of others.

    Of course statistics never tell the full story (btw these came from footywire) but to paraphrase Chris Keane they should at least raise questions.
    I agree with you, particularly about JPK, RnR. I have never much looked at footywire until I was inspired to do so this morning by the other recent posts. What I noticed is that JPK was still performing at a very high level and winning an awful lot of ball for us, as well as tackling and contributing in many other ways. I'm not convinced he's as close to the end or on the downhill slide anywhere near as much as the vibe around him has been, even though I agree he is past his very best.

    The other thing I took from 15 minutes on footywire this morning was what a significant contributor Zak Jones had become and how losing him really was a blow. His stats were top 5-10 or better in a number of key areas (not just one) from disposals, to metres gained, tackles etc (don't quote me on the specifics but that was my impression after looking over the numbers earlier today). Taylor and even Gray are not going to adequately replace him. We'll have to wait for other talent to emerge and develop.

    The stats also suggest to me that Harry C is a very solid contributor and his place is not in danger for the time being. Not that I thought it was but I feel more confident about that now.

  3. #39
    I'm curious to see what becomes of Harry Reynolds this year. I just re-read his afldraftcentral bio: Harrison Reynolds - Aussie Rules Draft Central. It doesn't describe the player I imagined him to be. I had vaguely categorised him as a prospective 3rd defender down back. But the bio describes him as being very quick and a contested ball winner at junior level with ordinary kicking efficiency. Interesting. Clearly we are developing him as a defender but perhaps he will wind up somewhere else in the long run, if he makes it . Could even be more of a project for our midfield. Does anyone else know anything about him? I just had a look through last year's draft thread and didn't find much. Also found a video of him on Swans website after his contract was extended for this season and he came across as having a really good attitude. I'm not really expecting him to play seniors this year but I am really interested to see what he produces.

  4. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by bloodspirit View Post
    I agree with you, particularly about JPK, RnR. I have never much looked at footywire until I was inspired to do so this morning by the other recent posts. What I noticed is that JPK was still performing at a very high level and winning an awful lot of ball for us, as well as tackling and contributing in many other ways. I'm not convinced he's as close to the end or on the downhill slide anywhere near as much as the vibe around him has been, even though I agree he is past his very best.

    The other thing I took from 15 minutes on footywire this morning was what a significant contributor Zak Jones had become and how losing him really was a blow. His stats were top 5-10 or better in a number of key areas (not just one) from disposals, to metres gained, tackles etc (don't quote me on the specifics but that was my impression after looking over the numbers earlier today). Taylor and even Gray are not going to adequately replace him. We'll have to wait for other talent to emerge and develop.

    The stats also suggest to me that Harry C is a very solid contributor and his place is not in danger for the time being. Not that I thought it was but I feel more confident about that now.
    We got shafted on Jones big time , he’s a good player who makes a couple of blues a game, in amongst several really good things . Realistically worth a late first round pick at worst and if the saints had one to offer we should’ve got it but alas, they didn’t.


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  5. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by bloodspirit View Post
    I'm curious to see what becomes of Harry Reynolds this year. I just re-read his afldraftcentral bio: Harrison Reynolds - Aussie Rules Draft Central. It doesn't describe the player I imagined him to be. I had vaguely categorised him as a prospective 3rd defender down back. But the bio describes him as being very quick and a contested ball winner at junior level with ordinary kicking efficiency. Interesting. Clearly we are developing him as a defender but perhaps he will wind up somewhere else in the long run, if he makes it . Could even be more of a project for our midfield. Does anyone else know anything about him? I just had a look through last year's draft thread and didn't find much. Also found a video of him on Swans website after his contract was extended for this season and he came across as having a really good attitude. I'm not really expecting him to play seniors this year but I am really interested to see what he produces.
    The only time I saw Reynolds play was at the reserves trial vs Sydney Uni at the start of the year. My brief impressions:

    * Appeared to be playing in defence or at half back. He was outmuscled at times by the bigger Sydney Uni forward in the goal square
    * Seemed to read the game well. Took a few intercept marks on his chest along half back
    * Had clean hands in picking up ground balls
    * I was most impressed with his composure with the ball. When he got the ball he would not panic and blaze away under pressure. He would look up and try to hand ball to an open player.

    I was guessing they were developing him as a half back flanker who could read the play and was calm in possession. But then longer term might move into inside midfield. He seemed quite raw and unlikely to play seniors for a while. Which I don't mind. We have got a list of 47 players so we can afford to be patient if coaches believe a player has a high potential.

    Reading his draft_central profile, he is a good height 189cm, pacy, rated highly for clearances and poorly for kicking. I don't remember much about his kicking or pace. But I might check out one of the NEAFL replays from earlier in the year. I think he got renewed pretty early in the season so he must have impressed the coaches.

  6. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by Ruck'n'Roll View Post
    On the one hand I hear opinions that Kennedy is done, on the other there's the expectation that Buddy's season 2020 performances will match his 2020 pay packet.
    I for one don't agree with either.

    During the season just completed both players missed games, with very different effects on the team.

    Buddy:
    The Swans averaged 76 points overall, 81 points when he played and 73 points when he didn't - we were what seems to me to be a modest 8 points better off with him in the team. Which is odd because he averaged 18 points per game.
    So the team collectively covered for more than half his output when he was absent.

    Joey:
    The Swans averaged 370 possessions per game overall, but in Joeys absence they averaged 340 possessions per game. 30 possessions per game less. But Joey averaged 26 disposals per game. This is equally as significant.
    The figures suggest that not only was the team unable to cover for Joey's absence at all (possession wise), but his absence may also have reduced the output of others.

    Of course statistics never tell the full story (btw these came from footywire) but to paraphrase Chris Keane they should at least raise questions.
    Interesting analysis

  7. #43
    I have great hopes for McCartin as a forward.
    Hopefully one of Brandt Maibaum or Melican will prove to be the long term successor to Reg. It might take most of the season to lock up this defensive pillar position but I hope McCartin does not get allocated there - a Reid like stint in an emergency/ end of quarter excepted.
    McCartin is somewhat shorter and lighter than Franklin and Reid but he is much younger and needs a solid grounding as our key forward into the future.

  8. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ruck'n'Roll View Post
    On the one hand I hear opinions that Kennedy is done, on the other there's the expectation that Buddy's season 2020 performances will match his 2020 pay packet.
    I for one don't agree with either.

    During the season just completed both players missed games, with very different effects on the team.

    Buddy:
    The Swans averaged 76 points overall, 81 points when he played and 73 points when he didn't - we were what seems to me to be a modest 8 points better off with him in the team. Which is odd because he averaged 18 points per game.
    So the team collectively covered for more than half his output when he was absent.

    Joey:
    The Swans averaged 370 possessions per game overall, but in Joeys absence they averaged 340 possessions per game. 30 possessions per game less. But Joey averaged 26 disposals per game. This is equally as significant.
    The figures suggest that not only was the team unable to cover for Joey's absence at all (possession wise), but his absence may also have reduced the output of others.

    Of course statistics never tell the full story (btw these came from footywire) but to paraphrase Chris Keane they should at least raise questions.
    All the more praise for our "inexperienced" backline as we had a % of 97. And our average losing margin was 22 points. How much improvement do we need to bridge that gap?

  9. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by SeanM View Post
    The only time I saw Reynolds play was at the reserves trial vs Sydney Uni at the start of the year. My brief impressions:

    * Appeared to be playing in defence or at half back. He was outmuscled at times by the bigger Sydney Uni forward in the goal square
    * Seemed to read the game well. Took a few intercept marks on his chest along half back
    * Had clean hands in picking up ground balls
    * I was most impressed with his composure with the ball. When he got the ball he would not panic and blaze away under pressure. He would look up and try to hand ball to an open player.

    I was guessing they were developing him as a half back flanker who could read the play and was calm in possession. But then longer term might move into inside midfield. He seemed quite raw and unlikely to play seniors for a while. Which I don't mind. We have got a list of 47 players so we can afford to be patient if coaches believe a player has a high potential.

    Reading his draft_central profile, he is a good height 189cm, pacy, rated highly for clearances and poorly for kicking. I don't remember much about his kicking or pace. But I might check out one of the NEAFL replays from earlier in the year. I think he got renewed pretty early in the season so he must have impressed the coaches.
    I caught up with a friend recently whose son played junior footy with Harry. He really thinks he will make it as he was a very good junior footballer (I guess they all are) so it will be interesting to see how he develops this year. The last half of the season was ruined with a stress fracture in his back. He is good to go now

  10. #46
    Revisor of revisionisms Ruck'n'Roll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nico View Post
    All the more praise for our "inexperienced" backline as we had a % of 97. And our average losing margin was 22 points. How much improvement do we need to bridge that gap?
    Agreed the backline wasn't the problem last year. Bridging that 22 point gap does not appear to be something Buddy will be able to achieve. He will increase our scoring a bit, but the footywire stats suggest the majority of his goals would have been kicked by someone else if he was absent. In any case the forward line was said to be converting inside 50's into shots at goal at a very effective rate

    The improvement needs to happen in the midfield.

    On the + side
    • Naismith looked extremely good in the 2's when he finally returned to the field.
    • And while our veteran midfielders like Parker and Joey are getting old, others like Henney, Hewett and Florent have gotten 50 or 100 games under their belts - which is often when their output takes a step up.


    On the - side
    • The loss of Jones cost us some speed, fortunately we have been recruiting for for that for some time and I think we will be able to cover that aspect.
    • Jones also brought a degree of forceful bustle to the midfield, I don't think we had anyone else on our list who could definitely provide that. O'Riordan, Rowbottom, Mcinerney (and Gould) may all have capabilities in that area but it'd be a big ask to expect it in 2020.

  11. #47
    I totally agree that the midfield is the key. We just need to win more of the ball in the clearances and force more inside 50s to increase our scoring opportunities. The last time we had a strong midfield and good numbers there was 2016.

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  12. #48
    Looking at the most recent post by the club on FB (mark if the year type stuff), I'm feeling confident.

    In Heeney, Dawson, Blakey, Mills, Hayward and McCartain, we have the core of an elite side in the coming years.

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