Page 1 of 7 12345 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 12 of 77

Thread: Round 18: the other games. Get out your calculators.

  1. #1
    Veterans List dejavoodoo44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Location
    Gold Coast
    Posts
    7,329

    Round 18: the other games. Get out your calculators.

    Probably the main interest for the round, is where we finish on the ladder, and consequently, which draft pick we get. We can end up with either pick 3, 4 or 5. Of those, pick 5 is the least likely, as it involves us having an upset win over the Cats and then leapfrogging over the Suns, if they’re beaten by the Hawks. Pick 3 becomes ours, if we suffer a predictable loss against the Cats, and the Hawks beat the Suns by enough to overcome the current percentage gap of roughly 3.2%: which requires a for and against swing of around 60 points. That is, our for and against is now -181, while for the Hawks, it is -241. So, if we lose by around 30 and they win by around 30, then pick 3 comes into play. However, for and against is only a rough guide. For instance, if we lose by a scoreline of 20 to 50, then our percentage drops to 80.06%, but if the score is, us 70 and Cats 100, then our percentage only drops to 80.10%. So, if things start to play out that way, the calculators might need to come out.

    Of course, there’s also the question of, what would you prefer: pick 3 or finishing above the mustard on turd? Personally, I’d be perfectly happy with pick 4. Without looking it up, I doubt if there’s been any real significant historical difference, between the careers of those taken at pick 3 and those taken at pick 4.

    The other area where calculators might be needed, is the battle for the last spots in the eight. The crucial games are; Saints v Giants, Bombers v Demons and Dockers v Bulldogs. Looking at the ladder, the Giants only have a very slim chance of making it. For instance, they need to beat the Saints by over 55 points, to get above them on percentage, and then either the Bulldogs or the Demons have to lose. A win by less than 55, means that both the other sides have to lose (or the Demons draw), (or the Demons only have a very narrow win). But anyway, it would be very surprising if the Giants made it. Premiership window almost closed? Quite possibly. The Demons need a bit of luck, but not as much as the Giants. They have a better percentage than the Bulldogs, so if they win and the Bulldogs lose, then they’re in.

    There can be a few changes in the eight. For instance, the Saints jumping above the Magpies, into sixth, but since the upshot might be playing a final at Metricon, instead of the Gabba, then that’s much of a muchness. And I suppose that it’s worth mentioning that we could knock the Cats out of the top four. Don’t really like our chances, but hey, stranger things have happened.

  2. #2
    Reefer Madness
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    in a yellow submarine
    Posts
    4,359
    Blog Entries
    1
    Whatever pick we finish with I'm fine.

    I just want GWS and the Bulldogs to miss the finals by whatever means.
    'Delicious' is a fun word to say

  3. #3
    Veterans List dejavoodoo44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Location
    Gold Coast
    Posts
    7,329
    Quote Originally Posted by i'm-uninformed2 View Post
    Whatever pick we finish with I'm fine.

    I just want GWS and the Bulldogs to miss the finals by whatever means.
    I can live with that.

  4. #4
    Outer wing, Lake Oval Sandridge's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Melbourne
    Posts
    1,838
    Fingers crossed that the Dees beat Essendon and then Freo beat the Fairypuppies!

  5. #5
    Norf going OK against the Weagles

  6. #6
    Senior Player sharp9's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Location
    Cust, New Zealand
    Posts
    2,500
    I did the ladder predictor and it put us below Hawthorn with a 30 point loss and a 10 point win

  7. #7
    Travelling Swannie!! mcs's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Canberra
    Posts
    7,800
    I just hope the fairypuppies blow it and they don't make it. Will never forgive the larceny of 2016.
    "You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."

  8. #8
    Veterans List
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Crowland :-(
    Posts
    6,096
    Hawks won't win, they are tanking now.

    Pick 4 it will be, let's hope for no shenanigans with a very early bid on Campbell and that we get to use pick 4. It will of course be pick 5 after one of the clubs below us bids on JUH thereby wiping out the Dogs from the rest of the draft :-)

    Barracking strongly for Freo, I so hate the Dogs and that surly coach of there's who declared after last weeks win that "something special is building here" I immediately thought 2016

  9. #9
    Regular in the Side
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    melbourne
    Posts
    834
    dogs are going to need the umps and afl on their side as in 16

  10. #10
    Outer wing, Lake Oval Sandridge's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Melbourne
    Posts
    1,838
    Great to see the anti-Bulldogs sentiments expressed here. The 2016 Grand Final was disgraceful.

    The Fairypuppies played 26 games in 2016. The lost the free kick count 4 times. They won the free kick count in all 4 finals they played, receiving a total of 79 free kicks while their finals opponents only received 48.

    Maintain the rage! Go Freo on the weekend!!

  11. #11
    Senior Player
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Close to the old Lake Oval
    Posts
    3,891
    Quote Originally Posted by Sandridge View Post
    Great to see the anti-Bulldogs sentiments expressed here. The 2016 Grand Final was disgraceful.

    The Fairypuppies played 26 games in 2016. The lost the free kick count 4 times. They won the free kick count in all 4 finals they played, receiving a total of 79 free kicks while their finals opponents only received 48.

    Maintain the rage! Go Freo on the weekend!!
    Very dangerous game for the Bullies. An iffy free kick to the Dockers late to get them over the line would be sweet.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by 707 View Post
    Hawks won't win, they are tanking now.

    Pick 4 it will be, let's hope for no shenanigans with a very early bid on Campbell and that we get to use pick 4. It will of course be pick 5 after one of the clubs below us bids on JUH thereby wiping out the Dogs from the rest of the draft :-)
    Exactly right.
    All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

Page 1 of 7 12345 ... LastLast

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Single Sign On provided by vBSSO