The performance of the Swans' forward line this year - was Papley the highest scorer with something like 26 goals? - wouldn't look all that good on the resume of Stevie J.
Then again our forward line has not really functioned well since the Bud-Tippett-Reid combo never got off the ground. We so need a key forward that can hang in there. Our current hotch, potch, makes it so hard on players like Paps and Heeney (when he is playing). Sam Reid played one great game this season, his milestone game I think it was but he didn't follow it up unfortunately. Next year?? Aliir had one exciting game as a ruck forward. The surprise element may have helped him a bit, but he is not the most predictable player at the best of times, for his team mates as well as the opposition. With McCartin in the forward line McLean didn't get a consistent run of games to find out whether he could become our elite KPF into the future. If we want another flag we have got to find and develop a few elites!
Here's a collection of charts (click for full-size) with some statistics relating to the performance of forwards, seasons 2000-2020. Red line shows averages. Vertical dashed line = season 2017. Stevie J joined at the end of that season.
Now some of the stats are obvious - Swans are scoring less goals, for example. But I think it's fair to say that several other indicators are heading in the wrong direction, and started to do so post-2017. Notably: scoring shot differential, accuracy (goals / goals + behinds) and goals per inside 50.
More things happened in 2018-20 than getting a new forward coach of course, always hard to establish cause and effect. But I find the timing of the decline interesting.
I dont know why we are getting so hung up on Stevie J. He was only here for a couple of years during a rebuilding phase. His impact, good or bad, is minimal on when our next premiership happens.
He left on his own terms, and maybe he was on the way out anyway. In which case its win/win.
Did GWS see those charts before they recruited SJ? On those 'performance indicators', to coin a wanky AFL stats term, his decision to leave saved the Swans having to make an awkward one. As Barry says, it's a win-win.
Assuming the role he has at the Giants is the same role he had with us, it will be interesting to see what direction their scoring charts go in the next few seasons as it's pretty clear their charts would be heading in the same direction as ours at the moment.
Last edited by stevoswan; 28th September 2020 at 11:47 AM.
It would be interesting if a similar comparison was made across all of the clubs.
Goals/inside 50 is there (bottom of third column). Didn't do scores but I imagine it would look similar, as it's just a bigger number divided by the same number.
What I find interesting is how many lines start trending down post-2017. It's probably a combination of things. After all it also coincides with the period of not having a functional forward line: no Reid 2018/much of 2020, no Buddy 2020.
Sure would! Scoring has been down in general across the league for a few seasons now. But the differentials are concerning. Means that we're going worse against everyone (that is, on average). Accuracy too: most teams tick along somewhere around 60%, so to start sliding closer to 50% is a worry.
I was trying to find the ranking by club of scores per inside 50. I thought the Swans ranked mid-table or even top-8
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