2021: best and worse case predictions

[MattW]

Probably realistic unless we have a dream run with injuries and Buddy returns to play a number of games. Won't mean we are not still developing. Predict that if this occurs, there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth from a number fans who have been spoilt over the past 20 years.

I don't know if it's necessary to presumptively denigrate fellow fans in that way.

To me, even 12th feels a little low. In Naismith, Buddy, Heeney, Rampe, we were without arguably our best or most important players for most of the year. Plus Hewett and Kennedy for patches. Even undermanned and on the young side, we probably should have won one, if not two more games (out of Essendon, Carlton and Geelong), and finished around 13th, which is I think more reflective of where we should currently be. I feel fortunate to have pick 3, it feels a little unrepresentative.

I think we should aim to at least finish higher than the other bottom 8 teams this year - Melbourne and Freo will be the toughest.

[Thunder Shaker]

I am a bit sceptical of thinking both Richmond and West Coast would be on decline. I think both of them would be good in 2021. They have continued to reinvent themselves.

I haven't said that a hypothetical decline will start in 2021. I was looking a little further ahead, maybe over three years.

Richmond

I have said that they would be in decline "soon". Best comparison may be Hawthorn 2015 or 2016. In 2015, Hawthorn won their third flag in a row. In 2016, Hawthorn finished third after the home and away season but lost both of their finals matches. 2017: 12th, 2018: 4th, 2019: 9th, 2020: 15th.

Houli is 32, Riewoldt is 31, several other core Richmond players are 28 to 30. As these players get towards the ends of their careers, Richmond will falter as Hawthorn did. They have very few players under 21 with any experience.

Richmond will still be competitive in 2021, but after that they will likely start to slide.

West Coast

West Coast also have a core group of players who are 28 or older. Kennedy and Hurn are 33. Shuey and Naitanui are 30. Like Richmond, West Coast should be competitive for another year or two but age will also take its toll.

Unlike Richmond, West Coast have about eight players under 21 with some experience. West Coast could well be making finals for several years, but some of those years they will not be top 4, and others they may miss the finals entirely. They seem to be locked in to finishing around 5th to 8th in the next couple of years. It all depends on how they manage the transition from their old guard.

- - - Updated - - -

17th Norf - Flogged them

A winning margin of 11 points doesn't meet my definition of a flogging.

[Nico]

MattW you forgot McInerney. The find of the year for me.

I am going against the herd and saying we will be knocking on the door of the 8 or even to going as high as 6th.

Why: Heeney, Rampe and Hewett back. McInerney, Blakey, Rowbottom and Stephens going to another level. McCartin to defence gives us structure and shores up the spine. If Campbell and Gulden are as good as they are touted then look out. The big if is Buddy. If he can stay on the park then Papley becomes more dangerous.

We will beat: North, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Essendon, Giants, West Coast at home, Melbourne (flaky), Carlton, Suns. Good chance to beat StKilda, Collingwood and Freo. If we get a favourable draw who knows what might happen. Getting our Mojo back at the SCG will be a bonus. And we are always a chance to beat Geelong.

I would love to draw Richmond in Round 2 as they are beatable early in the season.

[MattW]

MattW you forgot McInerney. The find of the year for me.

I am going against the herd and saying we will be knocking on the door of the 8 or even to going as high as 6th.

Why: Heeney, Rampe and Hewett back. McInerney, Blakey, Rowbottom and Stephens going to another level. McCartin to defence gives us structure and shores up the spine. If Campbell and Gulden are as good as they are touted then look out. The big if is Buddy. If he can stay on the park then Papley becomes more dangerous.

We will beat: North, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Essendon, Giants, West Coast at home, Melbourne (flaky), Carlton, Suns. Good chance to beat StKilda, Collingwood and Freo. If we get a favourable draw who knows what might happen. Getting our Mojo back at the SCG will be a bonus. And we are always a chance to beat Geelong.

I would love to draw Richmond in Round 2 as they are beatable early in the season.

You're right, I overlooked McInerney and he looks like he'll add a lot, particularly that delivery inside 50.

Agree with the rest - that's how I generally feel and would want John and the players to feel that way too, and attack the season accordingly.

[Mutley]

Would agree with Nico, think we may well be knocking on the door for the eight.
We have a strong back six and with Rampe back and Mills continued development as that general in defense and McCartin/Cunningham settling in we will remain hard to score against. A fit Buddy and Heeney will make Papley more dangerous. it really comes down to how our midfielfd develop, and with Parker/Kennedy providing support/direction would think Rowbottom, Blakey, Stephens, Florent and the two academy boys may provide some additional spark. A big question still remains about our ruck am]nd maybe a second tall/ruck.

[mcs]

I see HAW, ESS as the ones above us that are falling. But I think ADL will rebound faster than us. Most teams outside the 8 are on the upward trajectory.
Thats not pessimistic.


Derby games (sydney derby, or sa/wa/qld derbies) are always passionate affairs and the team with more motivation wins, irrespective of ladder position. One thing we have in spades over the giants of 2020 was passion. But it doesnt mean we will finish higher than them next year.
If I was being overly optimistic, we could catch carlton, but not freo.

Buddy is finished as a player we can rely on.

I don't see Adelaide improving much at all. They have a crap list that is old, and not much young talent yet. I think Nicks is a decent coach, but I don't think this year was an outlier at all. The last few weeks likely to be as much a dead cat bounce then anything else. Their off season certainly has not started well either!

[Thunder Shaker]

I don't see Adelaide improving much at all. They have a crap list that is old, and not much young talent yet. I think Nicks is a decent coach, but I don't think this year was an outlier at all. The last few weeks likely to be as much a dead cat bounce then anything else. Their off season certainly has not started well either!

Adelaide's three wins: Hawthorn, Carlton, GWS. That says more about the opposition than it does about Adelaide.