2021: best and worse case predictions

[MattW]

Cameron Noakes' D grade for our season stirred a bit of debate and got me thinking. It instinctively feels too low given our injuries, the youth of our list, and the mostly promising performances. However, we did only win 5 games and slid down the ladder, so it can't be higher than a C grade I think.

And certainly we expect and need to improve next year. I felt John was a little anxious late in the year - both to, on one hand, contextualise our performances in light of the factors I mentioned above, but also to emphasise that we can't get used to/happy with losing. He knows we need to find winning habits quickly, before we institutionally forget how to win.

So I'm sure most, if not all of us expect us to improve next year. But just what kind of improvement is par?

I know we have a trade and draft period to come, but I think we can proceed on the basis that we'll get Gulden, Campbell and another top 5 pick. The unknown is ruck, which surely we'll address separately. We also need at least a young KPF, because we have to plan for Buddy to be missing again and possibly never return.

So, in 2021:
a) what do you think is par, where anything less than that would be underachievement/a failure; and
b) what is a realistic best case scenario, which we should aim for?

I think:
a) par is 10th
b) realistic best case scenario is 6th

Even putting aside the ruck/forward unknowns, we have to expect development from fifth year Florent and Hayward, third year Rowbottom and Blakey, and second year Stephens. Our backline should be strong, with Rampe, McCartin, Melican, Lloyd, Mills, Cunningham and swingman Dawson.

Heeney should play in the forward half, and he and Papley should aim for 30 goals each.

[Steve]

Taking a step back I’d rate this season an A in terms of what we actually get out of it.

Pick 3 (so 2 top 10 players getting in before an academy bid), plenty more games put into kids, yet we were competitive enough to keep fans engaged and have a young team playing a strong brand of football.

In terms of next year I think it revolves around Buddy, and any other acquisitions that we are no doubt exploring. I can easily see us making finals but it would rely on all our senior players staying fit.

[Markwebbos]

I wouldn't give 2020 a D due to the fact we (finally) overhauled our ball movement. Got games into the younger players, and a number of players had breakout years.

2021 I will be pleasantly surprised if we make finals, think we are more likely to be in the 9-12 zone. I agree our forward line (aka Buddy) and improvement in ruck/midfield are key.

[barry]

This is extremely optimistic thread so far considering we fell down the ladder to our lowest ever finish only above 2 basket case clubs.
I'm not sure we have bottomed out just yet, with another year of pain. (unless we get a massive injection of free agents)

To see where we will finish, lets look at our fellow contenders in the 9th to 18th range:

9th Melbourne - They have a stronger list than us. We will finish below them.
10th Giants - Even if they lose Jeremy Cameron, they still have a strong list in its prime. We will finish below them.
11th Carlton - Improved this year and will get Williams. They should be pushing for top 8. We will finish below them.
12th Freo - Another club on the up. We will finish below them.
13th Essendon - In free-fall, and only finished a game and a half ahead of us. We could finish above them.
14th Gold coast - Another club on the up. We will finish below them.
15th Hawks - Still falling. We will finish above them.
17th Norf - Basket case. We will finish above them.
18th Adel - I think they have turned the corner in the latter half of the year. A big club that will make the changes necessary to support Nicks. I think they will rebound quickly.

So that puts us around 15th/16th again.

I think our rise up the ladder will start 2023 (maybe 2022), finals back around 2024/25

[stevoswan]

I'm predicting Buddy is in for a big year......yesterday one of the newspapers had a picture of him taking the bins out!

Signs are good!

[Markwebbos]

This is extremely optimistic thread so far considering we fell down the ladder to our lowest ever finish only above 2 basket case clubs.
I'm not sure we have bottomed out just yet, with another year of pain. (unless we get a massive injection of free agents)

To see where we will finish, lets look at our fellow contenders in the 9th to 18th range:

9th Melbourne - They have a stronger list than us. We will finish below them.
10th Giants - Even if they lose Jeremy Cameron, they still have a strong list in its prime. We will finish below them.
11th Carlton - Improved this year and will get Williams. They should be pushing for top 8. We will finish below them.
12th Freo - Another club on the up. We will finish below them.
13th Essendon - In free-fall, and only finished a game and a half ahead of us. We could finish above them.
14th Gold coast - Another club on the up. We will finish below them.
15th Hawks - Still falling. We will finish above them.
17th Norf - Basket case. We will finish above them..
18th Adel - I think they have turned the corner in the latter half of the year. A big club that will make the changes necessary to support Nicks. I think they will rebound quickly.

So that puts us around 15th/16th again.

I think our rise up the ladder will start 2023 (maybe 2022), finals back around 2024/25

Barry, by your own pessimistic calculations you have us finishing 14th, above ADL, NM, HAW, ESS. We comprehensively beat Giants this year and I can see us overtaking Carlton and possibly Freo, so that could have us around 11/12. Anything beyond that would surprise me. But there's no experienced players coming off our list, all our (very young) players will be a year more experienced. And we should regain Buddy, Heeney, Rampe. As someone else wrote, Buddy is the big in we need (although far from certain). I think having a functioning forward line and a functioning ruckman will make a big difference.

[neilfws]

I really think it's all about getting a functioning forward line.

I know that sounds very obvious: more goals = more wins = higher position. But forward line performance has been trending downwards since 2016-17. It's more than just midfield supply.

This year it was Papley (better first half of the season) plus a ragtag support crew. If that continues next year, I imagine they'll end up in much the same spot on the final ladder.

[barry]

Barry, by your own pessimistic calculations you have us finishing 14th, above ADL, NM, HAW, ESS.

I see HAW, ESS as the ones above us that are falling. But I think ADL will rebound faster than us. Most teams outside the 8 are on the upward trajectory.
Thats not pessimistic.

We comprehensively beat Giants this year and I can see us overtaking Carlton and possibly Freo, so that could have us around 11/12. Anything beyond that would surprise me. But there's no experienced players coming off our list, all our (very young) players will be a year more experienced. And we should regain Buddy, Heeney, Rampe. As someone else wrote, Buddy is the big in we need (although far from certain). I think having a functioning forward line and a functioning ruckman will make a big difference.

Derby games (sydney derby, or sa/wa/qld derbies) are always passionate affairs and the team with more motivation wins, irrespective of ladder position. One thing we have in spades over the giants of 2020 was passion. But it doesnt mean we will finish higher than them next year.
If I was being overly optimistic, we could catch carlton, but not freo.

Buddy is finished as a player we can rely on.

[Thunder Shaker]

This is extremely optimistic thread so far considering we fell down the ladder to our lowest ever finish only above 2 basket case clubs.
I'm not sure we have bottomed out just yet, with another year of pain. (unless we get a massive injection of free agents)

As I have pointed out elsewhere, the "lowest ever finish" is misleading because the last time we were finishing low on the ladder there were three fewer clubs.

We won't be in a position to be throwing much money at free agents until Franklin retires.

To see where we will finish, lets look at our fellow contenders in the 9th to 18th range:

9th Melbourne - They have a stronger list than us. We will finish below them.
10th Giants - Even if they lose Jeremy Cameron, they still have a strong list in its prime. We will finish below them.
11th Carlton - Improved this year and will get Williams. They should be pushing for top 8. We will finish below them.
12th Freo - Another club on the up. We will finish below them.
13th Essendon - In free-fall, and only finished a game and a half ahead of us. We could finish above them.
14th Gold coast - Another club on the up. We will finish below them.
15th Hawks - Still falling. We will finish above them.
17th Norf - Basket case. We will finish above them.
18th Adel - I think they have turned the corner in the latter half of the year. A big club that will make the changes necessary to support Nicks. I think they will rebound quickly.

So that puts us around 15th/16th again.

I think our rise up the ladder will start 2023 (maybe 2022), finals back around 2024/25

Looking at the other sides is sound, but I'll be a little more pessimistic.

9th Melbourne - They had a stronger list than us last year as well. They finished 17th. Most likely of this year's non-finalists to play finals next year.
10th Giants - Having a good list means nothing if they have no passion, and this is where the Giants are lacking. Lost to three of the four bottom sides. Significant issues with player retention.
11th Carlton - I agree they are improving, but they are still inconsistent. Lost to the bottom side.
12th Freo - 13th to 12th isn't much of an improvement.
13th Essendon - A club with list management issues.
14th Gold coast - If they can turn around their player retention issues, they will continue improving. Otherwise they will be a bottom six club for the foreseeable future.
15th Hawks - They need to turn over their aging list, and until they do they will be hard-pressed to avoid the spoon next year.
17th Norf - Rebuilding, and very aggressively. Bottom four for the next couple of years, then they will climb the ladder quickly if they recruit well.
18th Adel - Also rebuilding. They won't fix their list issues in only one draft.

May as well include the top 8 sides as well. Not all of them will play finals next year (on average, two or three sides making the finals miss the finals the following year).

1st Port - Jumped to the top this year. Likely finalists for the next three years.
2nd Bris - Finished 2nd for the second year in a row. Also likely to be finalists for a few years.
3rd Rich - Finished 3rd for the second year in a row. Have peaked, and will be in decline soon.
4th Geel - Starting a decline after finishing first last year.
5th WCE - Finished 5th for the second year in a row. On the decline.
6th StK - A side on the improve. Will be pressing for top 4 next year.
7th WB - Finished 7th for the second year in a row. Hard to read, but likely improvers.
8th Coll - On the way out with an aging list and falling down the ladder (3rd to 4th to 8th). Most likely of the current finalists to miss the finals next year.

Now for the Swans:
16th Syd - Young list, older players often absent due to injury. Need to recruit well to fill a few holes in the list.

On that, we should improve our ladder position next year, but not by much. My guess is the range 12th to 14th. Clubs most likely to be near us on the ladder: Fremantle, Collingwood, Giants, Gold Coast.

[Blood Fever]

As I have pointed out elsewhere, the "lowest ever finish" is misleading because the last time we were finishing low on the ladder there were three fewer clubs.

We won't be in a position to be throwing much money at free agents until Franklin retires.


Looking at the other sides is sound, but I'll be a little more pessimistic.

9th Melbourne - They had a stronger list than us last year as well. They finished 17th. Most likely of this year's non-finalists to play finals next year.
10th Giants - Having a good list means nothing if they have no passion, and this is where the Giants are lacking. Lost to three of the four bottom sides. Significant issues with player retention.
11th Carlton - I agree they are improving, but they are still inconsistent. Lost to the bottom side.
12th Freo - 13th to 12th isn't much of an improvement.
13th Essendon - A club with list management issues.
14th Gold coast - If they can turn around their player retention issues, they will continue improving. Otherwise they will be a bottom six club for the foreseeable future.
15th Hawks - They need to turn over their aging list, and until they do they will be hard-pressed to avoid the spoon next year.
17th Norf - Rebuilding, and very aggressively. Bottom four for the next couple of years, then they will climb the ladder quickly if they recruit well.
18th Adel - Also rebuilding. They won't fix their list issues in only one draft.

May as well include the top 8 sides as well. Not all of them will play finals next year (on average, two or three sides making the finals miss the finals the following year).

1st Port - Jumped to the top this year. Likely finalists for the next three years.
2nd Bris - Finished 2nd for the second year in a row. Also likely to be finalists for a few years.
3rd Rich - Finished 3rd for the second year in a row. Have peaked, and will be in decline soon.
4th Geel - Starting a decline after finishing first last year.
5th WCE - Finished 5th for the second year in a row. On the decline.
6th StK - A side on the improve. Will be pressing for top 4 next year.
7th WB - Finished 7th for the second year in a row. Hard to read, but likely improvers.
8th Coll - On the way out with an aging list and falling down the ladder (3rd to 4th to 8th). Most likely of the current finalists to miss the finals next year.

Now for the Swans:
16th Syd - Young list, older players often absent due to injury. Need to recruit well to fill a few holes in the list.

On that, we should improve our ladder position next year, but not by much. My guess is the range 12th to 14th. Clubs most likely to be near us on the ladder: Fremantle, Collingwood, Giants, Gold Coast.

Probably realistic unless we have a dream run with injuries and Buddy returns to play a number of games. Won't mean we are not still developing. Predict that if this occurs, there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth from a number fans who have been spoilt over the past 20 years.

[SwanSand]

I am a bit sceptical of thinking both Richmond and West Coast would be on decline. I think both of them would be good in 2021. They have continued to reinvent themselves.

Rise of Players like Shai Bolton, Noah Balta, Liam Baker, Aarts, Higgins have kept them honest.
Same is the case with eagles, they have good young talent on their list

We will struggle next year unless there is a bit of good coaching in the forward half. Last game against Geelong brought our new game plan to the fore and it looked excellent when it clicked. We do have the personnel to pull it in midfield but we need Some good structure in the forward half.

We would also be playing more games at SCG next year and unless our inside game with ruck situation is not fixed we may not win as many games as we are hoping.

[707]

9th Melbourne - Beat them
10th Giants - Flogged them
11th Carlton - Should have beaten them
12th Freo - :-(
13th Essendon - Should have beaten them
14th Gold coast - :-(
15th Hawks - Beat them :-)
17th Norf - Flogged them
18th Adel - Beat them

Adding significant talent in the ND, Heeney and Rampe handy additions, Buddy a bonus, kids all one year older and experienced

Who knows what the year brings, wait until trading and ND until speculating too much about 2021