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Thread: The game that explains 2020 Swans

  1. #1

    The game that explains 2020 Swans

    AFL - News, Fixtures, Scores & Results - AFL.com.au

    After a loss quality coaches tend to say to their players:

    "you never want to have to many losses, but you can always learn about your short comings from a loss and turn it into a positive. Its up to to us to uncover the gold, use it, build upon it and never forget it.......... so we can evolve individually and as a team"

    The Carlton, Brisbane and Geelong cluster of 3 games in a row are a very interesting mix of games to analyse our season in a smaller sample. ie it was later in the in the season so we can see our development individually and as a young inexperienced team. Equally.......to also understand our coaching styles, and our ability to adjust to the oppositions set up, contested vs uncontested......plus our one on one vs zoning.......plus our rotation of players into different roles for development vs getting a win.

    Coming into the rd17 game vs Brisbane we responded well via intensity and willingness.......we won serious stats vs Brisbane except for the scoreboard. So big tick after a heart breaking loss vs Carlton the week before. To be 21-34 coming into the 4th qtr and stat wise being dominant I was super curious as to why we were loosing.

    Did anyone look at the stats after the Brisvegas game in round 17.........absolutely enlightening

    The top 3 disposals from both teams were:
    Parker 33 disposals
    Kennedy 26 disposals
    Lloyd 26 Disposals

    In fact 6 of the top 8 player disposals were Swans !!!

    "Sydney was valiant all night, edging Brisbane for disposals, clearances and contested possessions, but just unable to exert enough influence on the scoreboard before the final term"

    "With the game on the line the Lions won three successive centre clearances that led to goals for Cam Ellis-Yolmen, Keidean Coleman and Charlie Cameron"

    AFL - News, Fixtures, Scores & Results - AFL.com.au

    I have my thoughts on our coaching and style of attack but Im super curious on your thoughts re this game.........ie how we were not in front by end of 3tr time is a fascinating review in itself !
    "be tough, only when it gets tough"


  2. #2
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    If you look at the statistics right across the year we are either performing at the league average or close to it.
    Maybe it’s to simplistic but we don’t score often enough ( understandably given our recent injury issues) and appear to have only a limited number of goal scoring options
    I suspect having only three Swans players kick goals as opposed to eight Lions players in the game you highlighted reinforces this and explains the resulting scoreline.

    Season stats bear this out
    https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/...20&rt=TT&st=GO
    Last edited by Faunac8; 4th October 2020 at 10:34 AM.

  3. #3
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    I would argue the most telling stretch was the GWS & Fremantle fortnight over in the West. It involved our best performance of the year, and our worst performance of the year, and made clear what all of our strengths were, and what areas we need to work on.

    Purely for the optimism I shall focus on the strengths from the GWS game, as it will be the blueprint game for the way we want to play every week in the future :

    - Midfield domination. We lost the centre clearances and clearances in total, as well as inside 50s, but won the hit-outs and were so much more efficient. We had way more possessions and contested possessions, and destroyed them in uncontested possessions playing with run and carry. Our midfield general Parker worked excellently with his rising lieutenant Paddlebum, while Blakey also proved effective through there.

    - Defensive brilliance. This was the match where GWS kicked just 3 goals, all from dubious free kicks that even the commentary box bemoaned. Rampe starred in a game with a broken hand, Melican found his form with a fine performance, and Mills intercepted everything in sight.

    - Hard-working forwards. Eight individual goalkickers - Dawson, Blakey, Stephens, Thurlow, Rowbottom, Hayward, Foot and Bell. Two of them wingmen, two of them midfielders, all working hard and pushing forward to hit the scoreboard. The two small forwards that didn't kick a goal - Papley and Wicks - were still prolific with assists and score involvements.

    The take-away: Parker and N.O.B could be a midfield duo, the defence is rock solid, but needs to be under less pressure, and the forwards need to replicate that high work rate to compensate for the lack of power forward presence we have.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBloods View Post
    I would argue the most telling stretch was the GWS & Fremantle fortnight over in the West. It involved our best performance of the year, and our worst performance of the year, and made clear what all of our strengths were, and what areas we need to work on.
    I think the starkest contrast between those two games was that Freo applied intense pressure, while the Giants couldn't be bothered, possibly thinking their skills alone would easily get them across the line. I think the team has shown it can move the ball well through the middle of the ground when the pressure isn't too hot, but isn't yet able to cope with the fierce pressure applied by the top teams. We saw it in the Port game too. We struggled to hold our own in the first half, but moved the ball far better in the second after the Power somewhat took their foot off the pressure valve.

    The team also needs to learn to apply that level of pressure over an entire game. I think we got better in 2020 compared to the previous two seasons but still struggled to maintain it across four quarters, or apply it at quite the intensity of the best teams.

    There are other things to improve too - like forward line conversion efficiency, way the final ball is delivered into the forward line, and competitiveness at centre bounces - but the ability to apply and cope with intense pressure is the thing that, IMO, most clearly separates the best teams from the rest.

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    Getting mids this draft with elite foot skills is most welcome.

  6. #6
    There’s no rocket science involved in understanding the Swans’ performance in recent years: quite simply we’ve been unable to kick a winning score. It sounds trite, but if you look behind the stats, it doesn’t seem to matter how well we play, or how much we dominate the contests, we have not been able to regularly kick a winning score without Franklin, Reid and Papley all fit and firing.
    Over the past 3 seasons, Sydney has averaged just 10 goals per game, around 2 goals a game less than the better performed teams. In 2017 (when we made the semi-finals) Franklin, Reid and Papley contributed 5.5 goals per game between them. Since then, they’ve contributed only 3.3 goals per game. If you go back over the margins for the past 3 seasons, you’ll see that that 2 goal differential has meant the difference between making/not making the finals in 2019 and 2020, and would have delivered the double-chance in 2018.
    In 2020, the contrast was even starker: Sydney managed only 7.5 goals a game on average. This strongly suggests to me that, no matter who we recruit/draft this year, we’ll see no ladder improvement unless we find a direct way to kick more goals – i.e. either recruit a proven goalkicker to deliver those needed extra 2 goals a game, or find a way to get Franklin to play a full season and contribute his normal 3 goals per week.
    It seems like the Swans are stuck in a time warp – nothing’s changed since 2017 – we have to get Franklin, Reid and Papley on the field every week, or bring in players to directly replace them, or forget about finals football.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Auntie.Gerald View Post
    AFL - News, Fixtures, Scores & Results - AFL.com.au


    "Sydney was valiant all night, edging Brisbane for disposals, clearances and contested possessions, but just unable to exert enough influence on the scoreboard before the final term"
    Using that game as an example just shows the big weakness in the current team is scoring power and the forward line. Defence - tick, Midfield - improving and tick, Forwards - big cross. Reid looks like he should be dominating, but doesn't. Hayward drifts in and out of games, not having much impact.

    We will see if Franklin can get back on the park, but really need to be planning for time after Buddy. Heeney back will help also.

    Aside from Papley, Heeney and Franklin, who on the list can you guarantee will impact on the scoreboard during a game?
    The eternal connundrum "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object" was finally solved when David Hasselhoff punched himself in the face.

  8. #8
    I would temper evaluations of Hayward by looking simply at stats. It was obvious, to me at least, that he was given a defensive forward role for much of the year taking away the intercept marking prowess of people like Nick Haynes.

  9. #9
    Senior Player Bloody Hell's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AB Swannie View Post
    I would temper evaluations of Hayward by looking simply at stats. It was obvious, to me at least, that he was given a defensive forward role for much of the year taking away the intercept marking prowess of people like Nick Haynes.
    So the coach is the reason we can't score?
    The eternal connundrum "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object" was finally solved when David Hasselhoff punched himself in the face.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by AB Swannie View Post
    I would temper evaluations of Hayward by looking simply at stats. It was obvious, to me at least, that he was given a defensive forward role for much of the year taking away the intercept marking prowess of people like Nick Haynes.
    Definitely true v GW$. He played a key role. I don’t know if it was true across the season?

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    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    I think the starkest contrast between those two games was that Freo applied intense pressure, while the Giants couldn't be bothered, possibly thinking their skills alone would easily get them across the line. I think the team has shown it can move the ball well through the middle of the ground when the pressure isn't too hot, but isn't yet able to cope with the fierce pressure applied by the top teams. We saw it in the Port game too. We struggled to hold our own in the first half, but moved the ball far better in the second after the Power somewhat took their foot off the pressure valve.

    The team also needs to learn to apply that level of pressure over an entire game. I think we got better in 2020 compared to the previous two seasons but still struggled to maintain it across four quarters, or apply it at quite the intensity of the best teams.

    There are other things to improve too - like forward line conversion efficiency, way the final ball is delivered into the forward line, and competitiveness at centre bounces - but the ability to apply and cope with intense pressure is the thing that, IMO, most clearly separates the best teams from the rest.
    I don't agree with that. Go back and watch the GWS match. There are blokes in orange jumpers right on us the entire time. We were so switched on that night that we executed everything to an incredibly high standard. It would've held up in a final. There is a difference between an opposition's defensive pressure, and an opposition's defensive structure. We showed against GWS that we could handle skill execution and decision making under pressure, but against Fremantle we couldn't find a way through their defensive structure. We had similar problems against Collingwood and Richmond. That is the next step in our evolution. No doubt a key component of that will be winning our own ball out of the centre more. When you do that, even the sturdiest of defences eventually become penetrable.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by AB Swannie View Post
    I would temper evaluations of Hayward by looking simply at stats. It was obvious, to me at least, that he was given a defensive forward role for much of the year taking away the intercept marking prowess of people like Nick Haynes.
    Cop out for Longmire to use someone in a defensive role on Haynes. He is only as effective as teams allow him to be. He loves a blind long bomb from the wing into a f50. That is how he wins the vast majority of his possessions. You might've noticed how excellent our inside 50 delivery was against GWS. Lowering the eyes, honouring the leads, finding targets with great kicks. Hayward or no Hayward, Nick Haynes didn't stand a chance at having his usual impact. It should be a blueprint for Longmire to realise what our fwd entries need to be, and that when we tidy those up, tagging the opposition's intercepting defender becomes a moot point.

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