Page 2 of 30 FirstFirst 12345612 ... LastLast
Results 13 to 24 of 351

Thread: Expectations for 2021 season

  1. #13
    This my ladder prediction
    Top 6 in no specific order but I think Lions will slide and wouldn’t be surprised if bulldogs make top 4 !
    Richmond
    Geelong
    Port Adelaide
    West Coast Eagles
    Brisbane
    Western Bulldogs

    Next 5 in no specific order but I reckon Melbourne misses finals again ! Carlton may sneak through.
    GWS
    St kilda
    Melbourne
    Carlton
    Collingwood

    Next 4 in no specific order but I reckon it would be great if Swans can go from this group to the one above. I reckon we will finish 12 but need to finish 10-11.
    Fremantle
    Sydney
    Gold Coast
    Essendon

    Bottom 3. Adelaide may surprise if they gel. If they rise the most likely club to finish bottom 3 is Essendon.

    Hawthorn
    Adelaide
    North Melbourne

  2. #14
    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    My secret laboratory in the suburbs of Melbourne
    Posts
    3,839
    Quote Originally Posted by SwanSand View Post
    This my ladder prediction
    Top 6 in no specific order but I think Lions will slide and wouldn’t be surprised if bulldogs make top 4 !
    Richmond
    Geelong
    Port Adelaide
    West Coast Eagles
    Brisbane
    Western Bulldogs

    Next 5 in no specific order but I reckon Melbourne misses finals again ! Carlton may sneak through.
    GWS
    St kilda
    Melbourne
    Carlton
    Collingwood

    Next 4 in no specific order but I reckon it would be great if Swans can go from this group to the one above. I reckon we will finish 12 but need to finish 10-11.
    Fremantle
    Sydney
    Gold Coast
    Essendon

    Bottom 3. Adelaide may surprise if they gel. If they rise the most likely club to finish bottom 3 is Essendon.

    Hawthorn
    Adelaide
    North Melbourne
    A few remarks:

    * Brisbane - recruiting Daniher will improve the side if he can play a good number of games. They need to turn around their poor conversion in front of goal and Daniher could help them do that.
    * Collingwood - have had a shocking trade period and they are unlikely to repair that damage in one draft. They could fall a lot further than a couple of places. I'm expecting them to be the big sliders in 2021.
    * Essendon - they have three consecutive draft picks in the top 10 and should recruit well with this rare opportunity. I don't see them as being a bottom four club next year.
    * Geelong - They have an aging list and it's only a matter of time until their best players are past their prime or missing games with injuries. Many pundits are tipping them for the 2021 flag, but if players aged 30 or over like like Dangerfield, Selwood, Taylor and Hawkins start declining in form or missing long periods with injury, the weakness of having the oldest list in the competition will be exposed.
    * Gold Coast - may perform better than expected because their assistance package is helping them. Rowell is a beast and if he can get close to 22 games he's going to push the Suns towards contention. Suns may not make the finals next year but may go close.
    * GWS - have a problem with club culture and player cohesion. They're not going to be pushing for finals next year unless they turn that around. Five first-round draft picks would barely be enough to replace the quality players they keep losing to other clubs.

    All groups arranged alphabetically.
    * My top 6: Brisbane, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Richmond, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs. Geelong more likely to be sliders than Brisbane due to the ages of the lists.
    * Sides pushing for last two places in the finals: Carlton, Gold Coast, Melbourne, West Coast. Eagles most likely, Suns least likely.
    * Next group of sides - Essendon, Fremantle, GWS, Sydney.
    * Bottom four - Adelaide, Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne. North Melbourne most likely to get the spoon.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  3. #15
    I've been OK with writing off 2019 and 2020 as "development" years, but 2021 is the year when I expect to see significant improvement. Some of those green shoots need to grow into something productive. Our two biggest areas of weakness recently have been in the midfield/ ruck and up forward.

    Forward, I don't see where significant improvement is going to come from with our current list, outside of Buddy playing again, so my hope is:

    (1) Buddy plays at least half of the games next year
    (2) We recruit two KPFs, potentially one in the draft and one DFA e.g. Paddy McCartin
    (3) We use 2021 to figure out who has/has not got it and vigorously pursue the player(s) we need to fill the void.

    We lost 5 games last year by 10 points or less, so if we can improve our scoring by 2 goals, we'd win most of those.

    Midfield, we've been getting beaten up for years now, but have recruited Tom Hickey at the expense of AA, who I expect to be a significant improvement on Sinkers. We also have a pretty significant infusion of young talent including: Rowbottom, Stephens, Blakey, McInerney and possibly Warner. And there are two highly rated players in Mills and Heeney that could play more midfield time. Plus we are expecting the arrival of two midfielders in Campbell and Gulden.

    My hopes are:

    (1) Time for the changing of the midfield guard. The younger Brigade - Florent, Rowbottom, Hewett, Blakey, possibly Heeney or Mills to step up and start to carry the midfield and allow JPK and to a lesser extent Parker to move out. By the end of 2021 I'd like to see a new established centre bounce rotation squad. Rowbottom and Florent have already shown signs.
    (2) Hickey to take the #1 ruck from Sinkers and be able to tap the ball to our players, win clearances etc
    (3) Swans to be breaking even in clearances, contested ball etc
    (4) We've got the potential to be devastating on the outside with fast players who can kick extremely well. I'd like to see us cutting sides apart on a regular basis (as we saw sporadically this year)
    (5) Commentators to finally abandon the idea that the Swans are a slow, boring, stoppage hungry side because our play is quite literally the opposite.

    Player development wise:

    (1) The untried or barely tried Gould and Ling to force their way into the side and become regulars
    (2) Heeney to take the next step and start dominating games
    (3) McCartin to be in consideration as AA CHB
    (4) Further significant progress from Blakey, Stephens, McInerney and above all Rowbottom, who surely has leadership potential
    (5) Florent and Hayward to become the players we hoped they could be
    (6) Clarke ... gets to a lot of contests, horrible disposal, but improving. He's either cemented his spot or gone at the end of 2021
    (7) Lewis Taylor gets himself fit and plays to his potential


    There's also been a massive clearout in the coaching ranks with Blakey, Tadhg, Johnson etc gone. I really hope the Swans continue to develop into an attacking, corridor team, that are exciting to watch. The change of game style this year fills me with hope.

    Results wise, we have to start climbing up the ladder again. This years 5 wins works out equivalent to 6.5 in a normal year, 2019 we had 8 wins. We'd want to be winning at least 10 games and in the mix to make finals.

  4. #16
    Veterans List Ludwig's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Chiang Mai
    Posts
    9,310
    I usually don't like making predictions about the next season. There are too many variables, particularly around injuries, that make a major impact on any given season. I agree with most of what previous posters have said, with the typical disagreement here and there that we all have regarding where we see particular players going next year.

    I'm happy with the list we have and that we are going to draft 2 gun midfielders and another gun prospect with pick 3, whoever that player might be. These 3 should have a big influence on the future, but probably not so much next season. Much will depend on our senior players being fit and playing close to top form, particularly Buddy, who is worth a few places on the ladder in his own right.

    We have the players on board now that can fully implement the new game plan, with quicker ball movement and more reliable skill execution. Perhaps more will depend on our coaching than the players. How quickly can our coaching staff teach the game plan to a group of players that had little practice doing so this past season? When will things start to gel as a team, rather than just a group of players not on the same page as their teammates?

    We will have a change in the ruck and hopefully we can put our best forward line on the ground most games. Our depth is solid over most positions, although still young and inexperienced. We should have Melican, McCartin, Dawson and Blakey passing the 50 game mark this year, and hopefully stepping up and looking more like senior players, executing there skills with poise and precision.

    Like the rest of us, I too would like to see significant development in the young group along with a move up the ladder. I don't think finals are out of the question. In fact, if Buddy can stay healthy and play up to his capabilities, we should be good enough to make finals.

  5. #17
    Ego alta, ergo ictus Ruck'n'Roll's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    Over here!
    Posts
    3,854
    Quote Originally Posted by Ludwig View Post
    In fact, if Buddy can stay healthy and play up to his capabilities, we should be good enough to make finals.
    I think a some on here seem to be confusing the size of his contract with what we can reasonably expect from a 34 year old.

    I don't think Buddy's absence was a major factor in our low scoring in 2020. Accordingly, my prediction of making the finals does not include any expectations output wise from Buddy.

    In 2019 - the Swans averaged 76 points overall, 81 points when he played and 73 points when he didn't - we were what seems to me to be a modest 8 points better off with him in the team. Which is odd because he averaged 18 points per game.
    So the team collectively covered for more than half his output when he was absent.

    I can't see we'd get much more than that from him.
    Loose translation from the Latin is - I am tall, so I hit out.

  6. #18
    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    My secret laboratory in the suburbs of Melbourne
    Posts
    3,839
    Quote Originally Posted by Markwebbos View Post
    We lost 5 games last year by 10 points or less, so if we can improve our scoring by 2 goals, we'd win most of those.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ruck'n'Roll View Post
    I think a some on here seem to be confusing the size of his contract with what we can reasonably expect from a 34 year old.

    I don't think Buddy's absence was a major factor in our low scoring in 2020. Accordingly, my prediction of making the finals does not include any expectations output wise from Buddy.

    In 2019 - the Swans averaged 76 points overall, 81 points when he played and 73 points when he didn't - we were what seems to me to be a modest 8 points better off with him in the team. Which is odd because he averaged 18 points per game.
    So the team collectively covered for more than half his output when he was absent.

    I can't see we'd get much more than that from him.
    Having Franklin in the side would do a lot to close the gap on this year's performances. Even 8 points a game would do a lot when we lost to Geelong by 6, Carlton by 5, Essendon by 6, Richmond by 8 and Collingwood by 9.

    We weren't horribly beaten in any game this year, with the largest loss being about nine goals (St Kilda). We were competitive this year, even if we weren't winning a lot of games.

    We're not that far off being a chance for finals again, but we won't improve dramatically. I think we'll end up about 12th. Don't knock a 12th-place finish. That's where we finished in 1995. The following year we finished on top and made the Grand Final.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  7. #19
    Veterans List Ludwig's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Chiang Mai
    Posts
    9,310
    Quote Originally Posted by Ruck'n'Roll View Post
    I think a some on here seem to be confusing the size of his contract with what we can reasonably expect from a 34 year old.

    I don't think Buddy's absence was a major factor in our low scoring in 2020. Accordingly, my prediction of making the finals does not include any expectations output wise from Buddy.

    In 2019 - the Swans averaged 76 points overall, 81 points when he played and 73 points when he didn't - we were what seems to me to be a modest 8 points better off with him in the team. Which is odd because he averaged 18 points per game.
    So the team collectively covered for more than half his output when he was absent.

    I can't see we'd get much more than that from him.
    I still think Buddy can be up there with the best key forwards in the game if he's fit, even at age 34. In other sports, top players are still at peak production into their mid thirties, but AFL takes a big toll on the body. I'm not sure if the 2019 sample size is significant enough to reach any conclusions. And he was playing with an injury when did play. In any case, 8 points on offence is significant. I wonder what the points allowed differential is, because with Buddy, we may be having more time in possession, hence reducing the opposition's time with the ball and scoring opportunities.

    The difference, at least for 2021, is that Buddy gives the forward line a particular look. We will play the game differently if he's not on the ground. So it's more about how smooth we transition to a post-Buddy era.

    This is the reason I said that I didn't like making predictions about the following season. Too many contingencies that can be endlessly debated.

    BTW, I noticed that my name was the 2nd word you wrote upon your return. Thanks for having me in your thoughts. I imagine it was quite haunting being away from me so long. Glad to see you back on RWO. injecting more incisive commentary than an Essendon pharmacist.

  8. #20
    Veterans List
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Location
    Melbourne
    Posts
    11,125
    We looked a much better side in the latter part of the season with Blakey and McInerney giving us real run off the wings along with the running Stevens. That looked an indication that the team was getting the game style. You can't underestimate natural improvement by young players.

    People forget that Rampe missed from Round 12 so he makes a huge difference down back. I think we should play Heeney at full forward to give a genuine target up forward. Hark back to Round 1 against Adelaide when he took the game apart. With the return of injured senior players we have to be a much better side.

    With the above there is every chance we can turn those under 2 goal defeats into wins to make significant moves up the ladder. I am positive about us sneaking into the 8. How other teams improve on their 2020 performance who knows. I don't think Carlton will improve that much, Essendon is a basket case, Hawthorn have hit bottom and North is starting again. I expect Adelaide to be a lot better. If we get a favourable draw I reckon we can can get 10 to 12 wins.

    We might surprise every one.

  9. #21
    Senior Player
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Canberra
    Posts
    3,969
    Quote Originally Posted by Nico View Post
    We looked a much better side in the latter part of the season with Blakey and McInerney giving us real run off the wings along with the running Stevens. That looked an indication that the team was getting the game style. You can't underestimate natural improvement by young players.

    People forget that Rampe missed from Round 12 so he makes a huge difference down back. I think we should play Heeney at full forward to give a genuine target up forward. Hark back to Round 1 against Adelaide when he took the game apart. With the return of injured senior players we have to be a much better side.

    With the above there is every chance we can turn those under 2 goal defeats into wins to make significant moves up the ladder. I am positive about us sneaking into the 8. How other teams improve on their 2020 performance who knows. I don't think Carlton will improve that much, Essendon is a basket case, Hawthorn have hit bottom and North is starting again. I expect Adelaide to be a lot better. If we get a favourable draw I reckon we can can get 10 to 12 wins.

    We might surprise every one.
    This is how I see it.

  10. #22
    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    My secret laboratory in the suburbs of Melbourne
    Posts
    3,839
    Quote Originally Posted by Nico View Post
    If we get a favourable draw I reckon we can can get 10 to 12 wins.
    Our two most likely fixtures would have these general patterns:

    1-1-3 pattern:
    * 2 games against one of Port, Brisbane, Richmond, Geelong, St Kilda or Collingwood (finished top 6 due to a finals win against West Coast)
    * 2 games against GWS
    * 2 games against three of Essendon, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, North, Adelaide
    * 1 game against all other sides

    1-2-2 pattern:
    * 2 games against one of Port, Brisbane, Richmond, Geelong, St Kilda or Collingwood
    * 2 games against GWS
    * 2 games against one of Western Bulldogs, West Coast, Melbourne, Carlton or Fremantle
    * 2 games against two of Essendon, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, North, Adelaide
    * 1 game against all other sides

    A very favourable fixture would be like this:
    * 2 games against Collingwood or possibly Geelong
    * 2 games against GWS
    * 2 games against Melbourne
    * 2 games against Hawthorn and North

    This is a 1-2-2 pattern. Because we always play GWS twice in a normal season, a 1-2-2 fixture is to be expected, otherwise we would be playing none of the other middle-six sides twice.
    * Collingwood are likely sliders next year. 2018: lost GF by 5 points, 2019: lost prelim to GWS by 4 points, 2020: lost semi final to Geelong by 68 points.
    * If we got Geelong, they are more difficult but we have had good games against Geelong in the last 20 years. They would be beatable.
    * Melbourne: we have performed better against Melbourne than almost every other side in the last 10 years (9 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss).
    * Hawthorn and North would be fairly self-explanatory choices.

    In practice, a likely 1-2-2 fixture would be expected to have more difficult opposition. We would be doing well if we get doubled games against three of these sides.

    We could also get a 1-3-3 fixture, but that is less likely.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  11. #23
    Veterans List wolftone57's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    Lilyfield
    Posts
    5,788
    If we do not move up the ladder then it would be a huge failure on behalf of the coaches. I think our list is developing very well but the coaching needs to improve to match the talent at their disposal. We are gatting far more of the ball from the stoppages then we have of recent times. The coaches are slowly trying to change our style from an attack from the FB line and HB to a clearance focus. It is working to a degree and certainly was early when Naismith was out there.

    If the coaches can be a bit more imaginative, spread the forwards instead of concentrating them and move the ball quickly by both foot and hand we are a shot of being just outside the eight. But we need a lot to go right;

    We need our group to develop and create sustained effort and not drop off

    We need players back like Heeney, Rampe and Hewett. I would put Bud here too except lately he looks great until the competitive stuff comes around and then he does a soft tissue. It would be good to get Naismith back too but an ACL is a long recovery although they say he is tracking better this time.

    The new boys and the boys drafted last year who did not get a shot need to come in and make an impact.

    The coaching staff to forget about the long bomb forward. Players to lose the panic kick out of defence.

  12. #24
    Veterans List
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Castlemaine, Vic.
    Posts
    8,177
    I'm with Nico on our prospects for next season.....more glass half full. There's a heap of upside but we may have to have a bit of luck with all the 'variables' going our way.

    As for Buddy, I'm bullish about his prospects. By all accounts, he was absolutely firing last pre season and we were all excited. Sure he had a niggle which kept him from playing round one but there is no doubt his season ending injury later on was a result of not having access to Swans physio and conditioning staff during post round one lockdown and largely being on his own rehab wise. AFL did us no favours there refusing this access.

    So he's had basically a year off with no toll at all on his body, besides the injuries. No week after week bash and crash.....he's been resting up, on a working holiday if you will. He'll get another ripping pre season in under more normal and fully supported circumstances and be cherry ripe for a fair dinkum crack next season. He'll be champing at the bit if you ask me.

Page 2 of 30 FirstFirst 12345612 ... LastLast

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Single Sign On provided by vBSSO