Loose translation from the Latin is - I am tall, so I hit out.
The first six matches of the season have been fixtured so that we will play: Brisbane, Adelaide, Richmond, Essendon, GWS and Gold Coast. I think if we can split those 3-3 we'll be doing well. And if we can win 4-2, it'll be outstanding. I'm not prepared to dream of more than that.
I'm pencilling in victories against Adelaide and Essendon. I reckon we're underdogs against Brisbane and Richmond. And the games against GWS and the Suns could go either way.
What do others think? What's a pass mark?
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5 wins in 2020
to go 3 and 3 in 2021 after the first 6 would be a significant effort BS
hmmmm I cant pick the trajectory just yet, because it appears we will do everything we can to continue blooding a few more 18yr olds.......which in a Geelong team the last few years didnt interfere with the ability to stay top4 or better...................but for us that is a stretch based on 2020 and the youth policy and only 5 wins and 16th on the table?
I we we come out with 8 wins and play youth youth youth in 2021 that would be a great effort me thinks
Its not my preferred strategy but it appears to be the direction.
"be tough, only when it gets tough"
+1 to the seeing the Swans live again. Much prefer the SCG games where you get a better feel for who is working hard , how we set up, what the match ups are etc
7 to 8 wins for the season is where I think we can broadly land, but hoping for a couple more wins than that. Mainly just want to see a further year of development in our younger guys, and maybe a star or two more to emerge as well!
The main thing I hope all of us that want to will get to enjoy is seeing plenty of footy live again! Can't wait for Rd 1 on that basis alone
"You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."
7 to 8 wins for the season is where I think we can broadly land, but hoping for a couple more wins than that. Mainly just want to see a further year of development in our younger guys, and maybe a star or two more to emerge as well!
The main thing I hope all of us that want to will get to enjoy is seeing plenty of footy live again! Can't wait for Rd 1 on that basis alone
"You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."
Agree with 8 wins prediction but hope that we can get 10+
15th - 18th is my prediction. It will take a season or two before we start to climb the ladder again.
So much depends on:
1) injuries to key individuals
2) development of emerging talent
3) ability to win clearances especially at centre bounces
4) the COVID factor. Will we be able to play a full season out of Sydney?
Ignoring #4, over which we have no control.
With respect to #1; there is real depth across a lot of areas, except for the ruck, key defenders and forwards.
#2 I have faith in our coaching staff who seem to have a happy knack of blending loyalty and determination together with the wherewithal it takes to play and be competitive at this level.
#3 unless Naismith makes a full recovery and can play out an entire season, this remains our biggest stumbling block. As we saw on Saturday scoring from centre bounces under the new rules is almost impossible for defenders to control.
Based on all the above, it’s difficult to see us winning against teams with an established ruck and roving division:
Geelong, Richmond, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Brisbane.
Of the remaining 11 teams, Freo and St Kilda look threatening and Gold Coast have the list that seems to show the most promise.
So who does that leave Carlton, Melbourne, Adelaide, North, Western Bulldog, Hawthorn, Essendon and GWS.
Let’s say we win 3/4 of our games against these last 8, 1/3 of our games against the middle group and 2 games against the top 6.
That gives us 9 wins compared to 5 last year, based on the possibility we only get to play 17 games again. If 22 games are played we may win 2/5 of the rest, assuming those last 5 games are against teams from my last 8, which leaves us with 11 wins.
I believe that would be a more than acceptable season. Plenty of excitement, new talent to appreciate and the hope of better to come.
Last edited by graemed; 9th March 2021 at 11:11 PM.
All I can say is thank god for Adelaide. I think our rebound has been delayed a year or two with the departure of Allir
5 wins in 2020 is not directly comparable to this season because there were only 17 games in the 2020 season. Win percentage is a better comparison. We won 29.4% of games in 2020, equivalent to 6.5 wins in a 22-round season (5 × 22/17).
"Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final
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