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Thread: R21 V St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

  1. #337
    Quote Originally Posted by goswannies View Post
    2) we had 5 straight wins coming into this games. But every consecutive win is one game closer to the next loss. It’s going to happen.
    Actually, statistically, every consecutive win puts you further away from the next loss. But carry on.
    (Because winning means you are a better team, and therefore more likely to win your next game)

  2. #338
    Quote Originally Posted by barry View Post
    Actually, statistically, every consecutive win puts you further away from the next loss. But carry on.
    (Because winning means you are a better team, and therefore more likely to win your next game)
    Actually, statistically, every consecutive win puts you further away from the previous loss. But carry on.

  3. #339
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    Barry, goswannies... what on earth are you talking about?... are you blokes drinking already? But I suppose it's past midday now. Carry on.

  4. #340
    Not a bad review from The Mongrel Punt. It gives Parker his due and wonders about “the disappearance” of a couple of others, previously mentioned on this thread.

    St Kilda v Sydney - The Good, Bad and Ugly - The Mongrel Punt

  5. #341
    Quote Originally Posted by goswannies View Post
    Actually, statistically, every consecutive win puts you further away from the previous loss. But carry on.
    Both previous and future losses.

  6. #342
    Quote Originally Posted by KTigers View Post
    Barry, goswannies... what on earth are you talking about?... are you blokes drinking already? But I suppose it's past midday now. Carry on.
    Example.
    Let say round 1 next year we play GWS and it's 50/50 at the TAB. And in round 2 we play WC and it's a 50/50 at the TAB. (2 team around us on current ladder)
    If we beat GWS well, we would go into the WC game as better price favourites. Odd might change to 60/40 our way. A win has moved us further away (less likely) from a loss.

  7. #343
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    Quote Originally Posted by barry View Post
    Example.
    Let say round 1 next year we play GWS and it's 50/50 at the TAB. And in round 2 we play WC and it's a 50/50 at the TAB. (2 team around us on current ladder)
    If we beat GWS well, we would go into the WC game as better price favourites. Odd might change to 60/40 our way. A win has moved us further away (less likely) from a loss.
    I think a win in Game 1 in your scenario will move us further away from the expectation of a loss in Game 2.

  8. #344
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    Quote Originally Posted by KTigers View Post
    I think a win in Game 1 in your scenario will move us further away from the expectation of a loss in Game 2.
    Using the betting companies as the arbiters of winning probability, it's fair to say, and I think Barry is saying this, a win in the most recent game will improve the odds, i.e. probability, of winning the next game, while losing the most recent game reduces the probability of winning the next game.

  9. #345
    Quote Originally Posted by Ludwig View Post
    Using the betting companies as the arbiters of winning probability, it's fair to say, and I think Barry is saying this, a win in the most recent game will improve the odds, i.e. probability, of winning the next game, while losing the most recent game reduces the probability of winning the next game.
    Tots. The betting companies are very good as arbiters of winning probablity because if they werent, they'd go broke.

  10. #346
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    Luke Parker was the lone Swans player to poll votes for the AFL Coaches Association’s AFL Champion Player Award following Sydney’s Round 21 clash with St Kilda.
    8
    Jack Higgins (STK)
    6 Jack Steele (STK)
    5 Jack Sinclair (STK)
    4 Callum Wilkie (STK)
    4 Luke Parker (SYD)
    3 Rowan Marshall (STK)

  11. #347
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    Luke Parker was the lone Swans player to poll votes for the AFL Coaches Association’s AFL Champion Player Award following Sydney’s Round 21 clash with St Kilda.
    8
    Jack Higgins (STK)
    6 Jack Steele (STK)
    5 Jack Sinclair (STK)
    4 Callum Wilkie (STK)
    4 Luke Parker (SYD)
    3 Rowan Marshall (STK)
    Now that's certainly redemption for Higgins.

  12. #348
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kafka's Ghost View Post
    Not a bad review from The Mongrel Punt. It gives Parker his due and wonders about “the disappearance” of a couple of others, previously mentioned on this thread.

    St Kilda v Sydney - The Good, Bad and Ugly - The Mongrel Punt
    As usual, a pretty spot on assessment.

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