Most valuable players in the game?

[liz]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-...-afl/101498378

I get that it's hard in a newspaper article, but this one is a bit lacking in that it provides so little on how they come up with the values they've assigned to players. It's a bit like those "mysterious" AFL rankings - the validity of the output is only as good as the worth of the assumptions and values contained in the calculations.

That aside, it's encouraging to see some data driven analysis suggesting we have three of the players predicted to be most valuable over the next decade or so.

[i'm-uninformed2]

Interesting, and a nice acknowledgement of our elite young talent.

I’ve posted on here before I reckon Anderson will win a Brownlow one day.

Sam Darcy seems rated quite low, though I guess that’s a function of having played few games. He’s a generational talent and my understanding is the Swans had him as a clear no 1 on their draft board last year.

The one not even on that last who’s got the potential to be the best of the Suns young players is Elijah Holland. Elite at everything, and plays with serious power. Now that his body seems right, watch him go like a rocket in the next year or two.

[ugg]

I get that it's hard in a newspaper article, but this one is a bit lacking in that it provides so little on how they come up with the values they've assigned to players. It's a bit like those "mysterious" AFL rankings - the validity of the output is only as good as the worth of the assumptions and values contained in the calculations.That aside, it's encouraging to see some data driven analysis suggesting we have three of the players predicted to be most valuable over the next decade or so.

PAV is explained in detail on their own website. HPN – Kicking it long since 2014

I'm sure one of the authors (or maybe both) is a Swans fans and have posted here in the past.

[Foreign Legion]

None of the 'most valuable players' are KPP. An Elite KPP or even a very good one is worth more than most midfielders.

Having said that its good to see those 3 Swans players on that list. Warner is the best prospect we have by miles.

[liz]

PAV is explained in detail on their own website. HPN – Kicking it long since 2014

I'm sure one of the authors (or maybe both) is a Swans fans and have posted here in the past.

Clearly I didn't read the article closely enough to see the link. I did suspect it was connected with the analysis contained in one chapter of Footballistics, with a headline author of James Coventry but really an anthology contributed to by a group of writers/analysts.

I think RWO regular, Neilfws, was one of the contributors to that book. The authors of this article (Atkinson and Lawson) were both contributors to [i]Footballistics[i/] (as I've just checked by looking at my copy of the book.)

[liz]

Interesting, and a nice acknowledgement of our elite young talent.

I’ve posted on here before I reckon Anderson will win a Brownlow one day.

Sam Darcy seems rated quite low, though I guess that’s a function of having played few games. He’s a generational talent and my understanding is the Swans had him as a clear no 1 on their draft board last year.

The one not even on that last who’s got the potential to be the best of the Suns young players is Elijah Holland. Elite at everything, and plays with serious power. Now that his body seems right, watch him go like a rocket in the next year or two.

Apart from the question of how the inputs into a model determines the outputs, one of the limitations when applied to young players and trying to project forward is relatively little data. Holland and Darcy haven't played enough senior footy yet, though the eye-test certainly suggests both stand good chances of being excellent players.

I also think there's not really enough data yet to project the likes of Warner and Gulden.

[Foreign Legion]

Apart from the question of how the inputs into a model determines the outputs, one of the limitations when applied to young players and trying to project forward is relatively little data. Holland and Darcy haven't played enough senior footy yet, though the eye-test certainly suggests both stand good chances of being excellent players.

I also think there's not really enough data yet to project the likes of Warner and Gulden.

I think Gulden is one of the most mentally mature (football wise) young blokes I have seen. I know his is small but he makes up for it by being a beautiful kick.

Warner has stood up and played well in big games for 2 years now. Easy to forget how he recovered from the photo scandal this year.

[Ludwig]

]None of the 'most valuable players' are KPP. An Elite KPP or even a very good one is worth more than most midfielders.[/I]

Having said that its good to see those 3 Swans players on that list. Warner is the best prospect we have by miles.

HPN do a pretty good job with their valuation program, Nonetheless, it does point out the difficulty in creating some kind of statistical equalization between the various positions in the game. In the end, there's a big weighting edge for midfielders.

In general commentary, key forwards have been given at least equal weighting in value, which can be evidenced by the draft. In recent times, intercept defenders have been gaining in value where some commentators have even put them at the top of the table.

One interesting methodology would be to use a market based valuation, which would rate players by salary. We sort of do this anyway, but have to make educated guesses in most cases as to what the contract values are in fact.

As you say, it's great to see Gulden and Warner in the top 5. I really shouldn't be surprised by Rowbottom's high rating, but he's been beaten down on RWO so much over the past couple of years that I'm still pleasantly surprised when he does get mentioned among the best players in the game.

[i'm-uninformed2]

HPN do a pretty good job with their valuation program, Nonetheless, it does point out the difficulty in creating some kind of statistical equalization between the various positions in the game. In the end, there's a big weighting edge for midfielders.

In general commentary, key forwards have been given at least equal weighting in value, which can be evidenced by the draft. In recent times, intercept defenders have been gaining in value where some commentators have even put them at the top of the table.

One interesting methodology would be to use a market based valuation, which would rate players by salary. We sort of do this anyway, but have to make educated guesses in most cases as to what the contract values are in fact.

As you say, it's great to see Gulden and Warner in the top 5. I really shouldn't be surprised by Rowbottom's high rating, but he's been beaten down on RWO so much over the past couple of years that I'm still pleasantly surprised when he does get mentioned among the best players in the game.

The funny thing about him is outside a couple of voices on here, it’s not up for debate. From mates who follow other clubs, to the general footy media, he’s very well rated. He’s still improving and has some areas to tidy up, but we’re lucky to have him and our old dear departed mate had a blind spot.

[rb4x]

None of the 'most valuable players' are KPP. An Elite KPP or even a very good one is worth more than most midfielders.

Having said that its good to see those 3 Swans players on that list. Warner is the best prospect we have by miles.

Four players on the list. You have to click an arrow to get the second page where Blakey is along with Dawson. No Tom McCartin though.