Ok. That's a very specific measure of "winning the midfield". More specific than I had in mind.Originally Posted by Markwebbos
I am willing to wager a fair amount that we won't win the clearances against Carlton. Or even come close. I also don't think we are particularly likely to win (or to come close). But if we do, I doubt it will be through winning clearances. Even when we are playing at the top of our game, we are not an especially good clearance team.
I watched the Blues/ Pies match on T V last Sunday, It seemed the Blues were playing the same type of game we do!One to many bounces And getting court holding the ball. to many hand passes ending up with the Pies.' Kicking at goal from right in front WORSE than us.SO the team that kicks strait will win!!!
Sorry I should have been clearer.
Clearances are one of our most glaring weaknesses. Based on some of the comments on here, not sure how much is personnel and how much method? Hopefully Hickey will return to improve matters somewhat?
Hickey is on the wrong end of 30 and 2023 might be his last.
Stat wise there is hardly a difference between him and Ladlams anyways you will be surprised.
I just had a look back at the stats from last year. Ironically we won the clearances v Carlton last year, but lost the match (so there goes my theory). Unbelievably we beat Geelong at clearances in the Grand Final.
Those were the only two games (starting with round 10, so I haven't looked at the first 9 rounds) in which we won clearances and lost the game. In 5 games (Tigers, Saints twice, Dockers and Pies (PF)) we lost the clearances and won.
Last edited by Markwebbos; 24th May 2023 at 01:25 AM.
It is very much what happens next from clearances.
But the main stat besides accuracy / scoreboard that seems to count for the best teams is simply who is scoring most from turnovers.
If you score more from turnovers vs your opposition you tend to win more games of AFL.
This trend has been dominant since 2017 Tigers footy and their major difference through their 3 premierships.
So different to the Hawks prior era of success where they controlled games with a higher % of uncontested footy and incredibly accurate forwards.
We have heard McGrath say how the Tigers changed the dominant game style of turnover footy changed AFL when he was an assistant coach with Dimma.
We have heard Ross Lyons say in his current era at St Kilda they pride themselves on being a positive turnover team.
Ross recently said more than 70% of their goals for need to be from turnover footy.
I suspect that centre clearances are one of the most difficult to manage for most teams with non elite ruckman.
Equally your defensive set up against a fast centre clearance tends to counter well ie that fast entry through the spine where there is a lot of backs set up to negate
For us at the swans we also have become a dominant HBF counter attack from turnover team so we appear to like balls coming in hot from centre clearances then counter.
We know Carlton are going to be really fired up this week Voss & the team are really copping it from their fans & the press , our midfield has to step up to try & cut their forward 50 entries there is NO way we will be able to combat
McKay & Curnow they are both "one grab" marks overhead with our lack of height in backline they will have a field day , Melican & Hickey if fit must play
I'm pretty sure that after half time Carlton put extra numbers around the ball and the Pies played a couple of extra across half back. This essentially closed down the game and resulted in only 6 goals, in total, being kicked in the second half.
That, or the Blues couldn't kick straight.
"Fortunately, this is the internet, so knowing nothing is no obstacle to having an opinion!." Beerman 18-07-2017
Have feeling club will play it safe with the two Tom"s concussions (Hickey & McCartin) with us having a bye following week.
Their twin towers up forward is a big worry with our depleted back line. Melican might come into consideration, but in favour to keep giving Gould senior experience.
Replacing Clarke with HHk would be an attacking selection.
Lots of pressure on Carlton. If we can start we'll & hit the scorecard, they may panic quickly.
Hervey showed some signs last week & Papley had quietest game I can recall. They both spark the team when their on. Bud may well also, needing 1 more goal to move into 4th on the all time goal kicking list.
We dont have our top defenders for intercept to win the ball for turnover down back.
We need to win it in the middle.
Whether thats a clearance or whatever, we need to win contested possession, the way we setup at clearances doesnt hold us in good stead.
Hopefully they look at last years game against Carlton, when it literally changed at half time when we went head to head from defensive minded.
We stay defensive this week, we will get pumped.
Remember a few on here calling for Harry Cunningham's head earlier in the season. Has been very solid in his best position down back in a time of need. Zero hesitation involved in the club selecting him every week I reckon.
Am I reading too much into it that they are not even giving any updates on Paddy McCartin? I know they have to be careful. Starting to worry about Tom Mc. too.
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