Hi everyone knew here but just after some advice on how yous think Sydney will go on the weekend against ST Kilda. Anyway Read down further for my preview of the match preview of Sydney/St Kilda and tell me what you think. Really would like some more advice from other swans fans as i think they may be value in this match and are paying around $4.50 to win.
Look forward to everyones views on all matches.
Collingwood vs West Coast
West Coast have had the better over collingwood in the past winning 12 of the last 14 games. The favoured team in those contests has won 13 out of 14 of those contents which in this case is the pies at 1.35.
Collingwood had a terrible start to the season but are now starting to find some form winning now that they have some of there injjured stars back. They have won there last 2 matches both at the Telstra Dome and have a good chance to make it three and make a move to be only 1 game out of the 8.
West Coast have the same record as the pies with 3-6 and have also looked shocking most of this year specially when travelling away from Perth losing by ana vage of 52 points away from home in there 5 matches this season.
Collingwood have a great record at the dome winning 7 of the last 9 games there including wins over the last 2 weeks against Adelaide and the Kangaroos. West Coast rarely pull of a win there but bet collingwood at there last outing at the Telstra Dome at very similar odds ($2.70)
At this stage I would be leaning towards a comfortable collingwood victory with West Coasts inability to play away from West Coast and lack of talls.
Adelaide/Carlton
The last four times these two teams have played the margin has been in excess of 40+. With Adelaide winning four of the last five and two as big underdogs.
Adelaide are 3-5 on the year and including which includes losses to 4 of the top 5 so they certainly are in good shape to still make the top 8 and coming of a huge win against Hawthorn last week.
Carlton are also 3-5 this year but there losses have came at huge margins including 2 100 point floggins, one of them was last weekend against ST Kilda. Carlton have given away an average of 136 points a game over the last 5 games which is a real worry. One thing that has impressed me about Carlton this year is when they do go forward there ability to kick straigh has been great, in there last 9 matches they have kciked more goals then points on each occasion which cant be said about alot of clubs.
This match is at home for Adelaide which should advantage them even more where they have a great record. Carton have lost there last 3 at AAMI stadium by roughly 50 points each time.
I think Adelaide should win this one confortably but dont quite deserve to be 1.12 favourites
Hawthorn/Essendon
Essendon have an amazing record over Hawthorn in recent times winning on the last 8 encounters and 11 of the last 12. Each of these games seems to be by either a goal or a real blowout in Essendons favour. Hawthorn has really struggled to kick goals against Essendon in all these matches and could struggle to reach the 10 goal mark once again this weekend.
Hawthorn have really struggled this year winning 1 of there last matches and got a thumping to the tune of 86 points to Adelaide last week. They also lost there skipper (crawf) in this match as well as Mark Graham which is really going to hurt them over the rest of the season.
Essendon have won 7 of the last 8 matches this year and have been travelling along very nicely without to many injury concerns. They have yet to give any team a real thumping as yet this year and have a low % for a team 7-3. I think this could be a great chance for them in this match to really give them a % booster while the hawks are going through these hard times.
Essendon have averaged 115 a game over there last 5 contests while hawks are only averaging 66 points.
Essendon also have some big guns performing at the moment with Hirdy the Brownlow favourite and the likes of Dean Solomon and Adam McPhee seem to improve every time i watch them. Not to mention the likes up foroward with gun full forward matty lloyd still chippin in his 4 a game and brilliance of watching Nathan Lovett Murray kick 2 or 3 classy goals a game.
This match being played at the MCG where Essendon have won 15 of there last 20 and hawks have there last 3.
Everything points to an Essendon victory in this one and as much as I would like to see the hawks put in a good contest couldnt see them getting within 40 points of Essendon and could really be in for a flogging.
Brisbane/Port Adelaide
Brisbane have won 5 of the last 7 against Port and the 2 losses were by less then a goal. Brisbane are a team Port really struggle to kick goals against and the last time they played was the first time they kicked 100 (104) in there last 9 contests against them.
Both teams are on 7-3 for the year with Brisbanes losses coming by a less then a goal to West Coast in perth, St Kilda away, and Fremantle in Perth while plagued with injury. This record is really a great record to date. Port also have a good record but havent been as impressive over the last 5 weeks due to injurys to many midefeilders but were able to get a couple back last week in Wanganeen and Pickett for there 4 point win over Geelong. Port really are a different team away from AAMI stadium where they haev handed out some floggings this year but in there 3 trips away they have had 92 and 53 point losses to Kangaroos and Melbourne and escaped with a 3 point win against the out of form West Coast.
Brisbane have won 17 of there last 20 Gabba including the last 7 and had a huge win last week against Melbourne last week beating them by 40 points when alot of people thought Melbourne would roll them due to Brisbanes injuries. Never back against Brisbane at the GABBA. Port won last time at the Gabba by a solitary point though had lost there last 5 encounters by an average of 50 points.
Like to see how the teams come out on Thursday but cannot see Port Adelaide getting to close to Brisbane in this match and they will continue there poor record away from AAMI.
Kangaroos/Richmond
Kangaroos have won 6 of the last 8 matches against Richmond and the last 3 games have all been decided by less then two goals.
Kangaroos did start the season off on fire with 3 wins but who was to know they were going to be three of the bottom 4 sides right now. Since then the kangaroos have gone 1-7 with there only win a very impressive 92 point win over the injured Port Adelaide side at the time.
Richmond are on the same record at 4-6 and have had a very up and down year and relied alot upon on how Matty Richardson plays, when he fires they seem to win. The pat 2 weeks they have had the doomsday double traveling to Adelaide and then over to Perth the following week for 2 losses. Before this there form wasnt to bad winning there last 3 games with Richo firing.
Both teams dont have a great record at the Telstra Dome both receiving some floggings over there last 4-5 matches there. Though the kangaroos have dished out a couple of floggings there themselves
Think this should be a very close match and could be a match where Richo could be the difference, I see a little bit of value in Richmond.
Sydney/St Kilda
Over the last 10 matches between these teams Sydney are 8-1-1 though this it a totally different ST Kilda side this year and I think stats liek this one will be irelevant for this contest.
Sydney are coming off 2 wins and some say they showed signs last week of there 2003 team. Though before that i felt they have been very dissapointing and this match will be a real test to see where they are really at compared to the top sides in the competition.
ST Kilda well what can we say about them, looking almost unstoppable after coming off back to back 100 point victories and winning all 10 of there matches this year.
These 2 teams play totally differnt styles of footy with Sydney using more of a defensive style winning by kicking low scores while ST Kilda just play offensive footy and run over anybody that gets in there way. St Kilda are averaging a whopping 165 points a game over there last 3 matches which is enough to scare any team while Sydney are averaging neally half that at 87.
Sydney have a great record on there small home ground the SCG winning 11 of there last 13 and there losses were both by less then 3 goals. ST Kilda are looking to break there 6 match losing streak there.
Some these stats show that it might not be as easy this match for the aints as you would first think and one thing that does worry me here for them is how they will play on a smaller ground together will the forwards be getting in each others way??? and they do have many big blokes which maybe could disadvantage them on this ground in the end. They have covered the line in all 10 matches this year but maybe that could come to an end this week.
I still will be looking at a ST Kilda victory but it will be interesting to see the way they approach this match and would be great to see others opinions on this match.
Bulldogs/Geelong
The Doggies have won 7 of there last 10 against Geelong and the 3 losses have been by narrow margins. One huge stat I have for this match is that the underdog has won 7 of the last 10 matches between these 2 teams which would see you up 6.25 units just betting on the underdog each time.
The bulldogs are 3-7 this year and 9 of the 10 matches have all been under 26 points so they certainly know how to keep it close even when losing.
Geelong have been in great form winning 5 of there lsat 7 matches after losing the first 3 of the year. Over this 7 match period geelong have only lost to freo @ subi a port in adelaide just lsat week by just 4 points and has included wins against the higly ranked melbourne and essendon. They have also cracked the 100 mark in 6 of these 7 matches.
The doggies have a really bad record at the Telstra Dome only winning 1 of there last 14 matches there but there only matches this year were narrow losses. Geelong have won there last 3 matches there.
Its hard to go past Geelong in the form they are in but feel there is slight value in the Doggies at $3.10. Will most likely look more into a bet on Geelong 1-39 when the lines come out sue to the dogs ability to keep games close.
Fremantle/Melbourne
These 2 teams are fairly even head to head though Freo have won there last 2 matches by 5 and 30 points.
Fremantle are 6-4 this year and are coming of a 30 point loss last weekend away against Essendon. Did show some great signs in the 2nd half of improvement though. The week before they were able to get a great win against Brisbane at home.
Melbourne have had a great season since there first round loss. Currently sitting 7-3 with just two away losses to Geelong and Brisbane.
Freo have won 14 of there last 16 at home and the 2 losses have only come against 2 real quality sides.
I feel the home ground will be the deciding factor here with Melbourne travelling to Brisbane last week and now having to travel to Perth. Freo should be a 4-5 goal better side.
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks