Afl Ladder Prediction

[swansrule100]

based on my tips and in the hope i added my dashes correctly i predict after round 22 with the amount of wins (if i added wrong sorry but ladder is basically right still)

STKILDA 19 wins
BRISBANE 16
MELBOURNE 14
SYDNEY 14
ESSENDON 14
FREMANTLE 13
PORT ADELAIDE 13
GEELONG 13

West Coast 11
Collingwood 10
Adelaide 10
Kangaroos 8
Carlton 6
Richmond 5
Bulldogs 5
Hawthorn 5

then the finals would be
Stkilda v Sydney
Brisbane v Melbourne
Essendon v Geelong
Fremantle v Port Adelaide

yeh maybe way off and too biasd to the swans :P but oh well just my thoughts

presumes sydney win this week

[sharpie]

Funny, when I did my ladder predictions, i had the exact same bottom 8 in the same order. Where I differ is the top 8, and my picks look a bit grim for the swannies, ending up 7th and heading to play Melbourne, port, or freo in finals week 1 depending on these teams' percentage.

Lucky for me there are still 12 rounds to go. But if we were able to win 8 of the 12, we'd be laughing. Would need major changes of fortune with injuries and form if we were to win many more than that. Your prediction of 11 from 12 is probably a fair bit too optimistic, but we can only dream.

[Bleed Red Blood]

Originally posted by sharpie
Your prediction of 11 from 12 is probably a fair bit too optimistic, but we can only dream.

Sholdn't it be 9 from 12?

[Charlie]

Not allowing for percentage, here's my current one:

St Kilda - 18
Brisbane - 17
Port Adelaide - 15
Sydney - 15
Fremantle - 14
Essendon - 14
Geelong - 13
Melbourne - 12
Adelaide - 10
West Coast - 10
Collingwood - 10
Kangaroos - 9
Richmond - 6
Carlton - 5
Bulldogs - 4
Hawthorn - 4

It's important to remember that this takes absolutely no account of upsets, for instance, it's unlikely that the Bulldogs will only win one more game for the season.

This is consistent with my view that the Swans have a reasonable second half of the season. I tipped us to win 16 pre-season, but that included a 4-4 start, so we're only one win behind where I expected us to be.

[NMWBloods]

I would have thought 9-10 wins from the next 12 is pretty optimistic.

Who do we have:

St Kilda (SCG)
Port Adelaide (AAMI)
Collingwood (TS)
Carlton (Optus)
Adelaide (SCG)
Geelong (Sk)
Fremantle (Subi)
Brisbane (SCG)
Kangaroos (SCG)
Melbourne (TD)
Essendon (TS)
Richmond (SCG)

Realistically I would hope for (and expect) 7-8 wins. Gets us to about 6th-8th, which is where I thought we would be.

Last year we won 8 from 12 in the back half of the season and I think we had a better draw last year.

[sharpie]

Originally posted by Bleed Red Blood
Sholdn't it be 9 from 12?

Yeah my mistake. You'd think an engineering/commerce student would be able to calculate that a bit better . Back to the old beancounter for me.

[sharpie]

Well, after redoing my predictions for the remaining rounds, I think a top 4 finish is possible. But it would require Melbourne and Port self-destructing a little bit. I think St Kilda, Essendon and the Lions will finish top three, leaving Port and Melbourne to fight out 4th, unless we beat both of them and win our fair share of other games as well. Geelong and Freo, on same points as us right now, have a much harder draw than us I think, so they should not be competing for that valuable 4th spot.

With 11 games to go, I think 7 wins would get us a top 6 spot, which is good for the home final. 9 wins and we'd be very unlucky to miss out on top 4.

[TheHood]

I've budgeted for another 9 Wins. The 2 I am least confident about are Freo at Subi and the Dons in Sydney.

I think we can beat them both if we take yesterday's form into the game. If only we could bottle that form and avoid more injuries.

[swansrule100]

im worried about port in adelaide and geelong at skilled..

[Bleed Red Blood]

Originally posted by TheHood
I've budgeted for another 9 Wins. The 2 I am least confident about are Freo at Subi and the Dons in Sydney.

I think we can beat them both if we take yesterday's form into the game. If only we could bottle that form and avoid more injuries.

I'm not worries about the Scum in sydney, it's along way away yet though, things can change, for better or for worse.