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Thread: Lloyd - a threat to Plugger's record?

  1. #1
    On the Rookie List Charlie's Avatar
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    Lloyd - a threat to Plugger's record?

    Velvet Gloves Matty will play his 200th game next week, which isn't bad for someone who only turned 27 two months ago. His three goals last night took his career total to 717. Plugger's goalkicking record has never looked safer.

    Velvet's goalkicking average is 3.60 (accurate to two decimal places). That rate is slightly misleading, however - his early years, as with most players, were not as productive as his peak seasons. This makes his career average a little bit below what a true representative figure of his career would be.

    To iron out that problem, and find a more accurate idea of how much longer Lloyd needs to play for in order to take Lockett's record, I've divided his career into blocks of 50 games, and calculating his goals per game for each of these quartiles:
    Games 1-50: 121 goals (2.42gpg).
    51-100: 211 goals (4.22gpg)
    101-150: 199 goals (3.98gpg)
    151-199: 186 goals - we'll be generous, given his current form, and say he'll kick 4 goals in his 200th game to make it 190 (3.8gpg)

    I am weighting these four 50-game blocks as follows:
    Games 1-50: 10% of adjusted goal average (2.42 x .1 = .242)
    51-100: 20% of adjusted goal average (4.22 x .2 = .844)
    101-150: 30% of adjusted goal average (3.98 x .3 = 1.194)
    151-200: 40% of adjusted goal average (3.8 x .4 = 1.52)

    Adding those together, we come up with an adjusted goal average of 3.8 goals per game. Now, let's be generous, once again, and assume that Lloyd can maintain that average for the rest of his career. At 721 goals (allowing for the four that he hypothetically kicks in his next game), Lloyd is 639 goals behind Lockett. At 3.8 goals per game, he would therefore need to play another 169 games to pass Plugger.

    Assuming that Essendon a) do not make the finals this year, and b) average one final per year for the rest of Velvet's career, and that Lloyd is able to play every match, he will play his 369th game in round 22, 2012. He will be 34 years old.

    However, Lloyd is not Adem Yze or Jared Crouch. He does miss matches, and it is reasonable to assume that he will continue to do so. From 1997 (the year he became a senior regular) to 2004, Velvet missed 18 games (an average of 2.25). For simplicity (and because it will not make a material difference), we will ignore his three missed games from 12 matches in 2005.

    So, if he continues to miss 2.25 matches per season, he will miss 16 matches along the way to game number 369. This would mean he would pass Plugger's record in round 15, 2013 - at age 35. Even this, however, is not necessarily accurate.

    As you'll see above, Lloyd has passed his peak. His return in his third 50 games fell by 5.2%, and 4.5% in his fourth 50 games. While there is no guarantee that this trend will continue, with Essendon's weakened midfield and Lloyd's ageing body, it is reasonable to assume that there will be continue to be some decline.

    For simplicity, we will say that his returns will decline by 5% each 50 games (ie, that he will continue to decline at a similar rate to his last 100 games). Given this, he will reach the following goal tallies at each milestone game:
    250 games: 902 goals (181 goals in last 50 games)
    300 games: 1,074 goals (172 goals in last 50 games)
    350 games: 1,237 goals (163 goals in last 50 games)
    400 games: 1,392 goals (155 goals in last 50 games)

    As can be inferred, he will still pass Plugger's 1,360 goals before his 400th game, but declining returns of 5% per 50 games will mean he will require 390 matches to kick his 1,361st goal. The extra 21 matches (plus 2 matches that he will miss, according to his average) pushes the scheduled record-breaking game back to round 15, 2014. Velvet will be 36 years of age when this happens.

    All of this assumes that he has no major injuries and that Essendon's game plan will continue to revolve around Lloyd and Lucas as key forwards. In order to pass Lockett, Lloyd will have to reach a games tally previously reached by only two other players in the history of the game, and will need to play for 20 seasons. I think that Plugger will continue to hold his record for many years to come.
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    Peyow Peyow Mike_B's Avatar
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    All I have to say Charlie is you have too much time on your hands.

    Good analysis too btw

    I'm on the Chandwagon!!!

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    On the Rookie List Charlie's Avatar
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    Originally posted by Mike_B
    All I have to say Charlie is you have too much time on your hands.
    Eh... what could I do? The computer I needed to study on was in use. I had to occupy my mind somehow.

    Good analysis too btw
    Cheers.
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    Taking Refuge!! NMWBloods's Avatar
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    Great analysis - I did something similar on the back of the envelope a little while ago and came up with a similar conclusion. All good!!
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  5. #5
    Football Terrorist
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    I don't think Pretty oy Lloyd will break Pluggers record. He might pass 1000. I can't see hium playing when he's 35. Great analysis Charlie.
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    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
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    I watched a portion of the Eagles-Bombers match and I noticed that Lloyd does play up the ground a bit. Why? Flooding of course.
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  7. #7
    Taking Refuge!! NMWBloods's Avatar
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    Lloyd's also very much down on form and has been trying to play a bit further up the ground to get back into the game.
    Captain Logic is not steering this tugboat.

    "[T]here are things that matter more and he's reading and thinking about them: heaven, reincarnation. Life and death are the only things that are truly a matter of life and death. Not football."

  8. #8
    On the Rookie List Ablett_20's Avatar
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    I hope Lloyd doesn't break good old Pluggers record! But i doubt he will.

    and great analysis Charlie
    gO u SwAnNiEs!

  9. #9
    A Blood to the bootstraps The Boot's Avatar
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    And I don't think Charlie's record will be broken anytime soon either ... my head is still reeling!
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    Nice work Charlie.

    Sadly Lloydy won't get anywhere near Plugger in the current environment of mini-floods etc. The other obsical for the Dons is that their midfield is ****e compared to Lloydy's golden years.

    Unless the Dons can find their 1999/2000 form, then he will struggle to make it 3 average per game.

    Lloydy's a champion, no doubt about that and I would like to see him challenge the record because when those things happen, that's what make footy great but it's safe for this generation.

    Image if we would get a big 17 year old kid kicking bags of 8 and when he's 21 kicking 14s and 15s a game? Man that would be good, even better if he was a Swan.

  11. #11
    Senior Player Bleed Red Blood's Avatar
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    So Charlie, when can we expect a similar analysis for Pluggers career.

    Originally posted by TheHood
    Image if we would get a big 17 year old kid kicking bags of 8 and when he's 21 kicking 14s and 15s a game? Man that would be good, even better if he was a Swan.
    Lachlan Prior.

  12. #12
    Agree with you 'TheHood'.

    In today's game there is little room left for traditional full-forwards whose sole purpose is to lead from the square and kick bags of goals.

    Some may argue that this is what Mark Williams (Hawks) is doing now, and to great effect, but it must be remembered that prior to playing out of the square he was playing across half-forward.

    So you can see how Lloyd is only a one-dimensional player - a traditional full-forward. Sheedy has attempted to broaden his ability to play in different positions across the ground (e.g. with roles in midfield and across half-forward) - but this has not worked so far and will do little (in my opinion) to help Lloyd.

    True, the quality of ball coming down may not be as good as, say, neitz can recieve at Melbourne, but I think he has plenty of opportunity to present and kick bags if he's on his game (I think most people could if they were hit with a Lucas or McPhee bullet!).

    So he is far off Lockett in the record goals kicked department, and although he is no-where near the calibre of player (again, IMO), this is not a fair reflection of his overall ability - but rather a change in the state of the game.

    It will be a while before players are kicking 100 goals a season again, as there is more emphasis upon players such as McPhee, Bruce, and up and comers such as Deledio etc. that can play a variety of roles , including kick goals in the forward line.

    Clubs have more options, and therefore do not only focus on one forward to win games - this leaves Lloyd at a significant disadvantage.

    Sorry bout the rambling but I just wanted to put in my 2 cents...feel free to agree/disagree

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