St Petersburg is on my list but I have to do Africa first. Hope they have wi fi.Originally Posted by mcs
I'll be in St Petersburg Aardvark - I think a couple of other people said they are going to be overseas on here as well!
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I have to admit I was. NARF I know.
After a very close friend's fortunate event that occurred on 29 September 2012, Danzar has learnt that he is only capable of making the ultimate sacrifice once, never ever to happen again.After an unfortunate event on 8th Sept 2012, Goswannette knows to keep all weekends of September and the first week of October free
In fact, she now consults the fixture throughout the season before planning social events (and that for watching games on TV!) ... she's a keeper!
Captain, I am detecting large quantities of win in this sector
Our good percentage means we could theoretically drop three of the last five games and still make the finals with 12 wins. The sides most likely to finish ninth are West Coast, Essendon, Bulldogs and St Kilda, and we're ahead of all them of them on percentage.
The order of the final eight will have several teams separated only by percentage, similar to last year. One extra win could see sides jump four places - it could be that close.
16 key games (involving top 11 sides playing each other):
R.19: Port Adelaide vs St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, vs Essendon.
R.20: Geelong vs Sydney, GWS Giants vs Melbourne, St Kilda vs West Coast, Adelaide vs Port Adelaide.
R.21: Western Bulldogs vs GWS Giants, Geelong vs Richmond, Essendon vs Adelaide, Melbourne vs St Kilda.
R.22: Adelaide vs Sydney, Western Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide, GWS Giants vs West Coast.
R.23: West Coast vs Adelaide, Richmond vs St Kilda, Geelong vs GWS Giants.
"Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final
If Hawthorn win all their remaining games, they'll finish on 12.5 wins - probably enough to sneak them into the finals, and obviously they'd be above us on 12 wins (if we lose three of the remaining 5). Unless disaster strikes, we should beat Freo and Carlton at home. We know that Geelong and Adelaide at their home grounds will be tough, even if the team plays pretty well.
This Friday night's game is an absolute must-win as far as I am concerned. Firstly it will show the football world that the current Swans can cope with / overcome the possession style that the Hawks will almost certainly use against us. I have no doubt that, player for player, the Swans team will be stronger than the Hawks team. But we do know that the Hawks are capable of executing a tactical game that will take the Swans contested game away from them. Whichever team is able to dictate the style of game for longer will come out on top.
Secondly, it will completely put pay to Hawthorn's faint hopes of playing finals this year and come close to assuring us of a top 8 spot, regardless of what happens at Simmonds and Adelaide Oval.
Early in the season I'd resigned myself to the team probably missing out on finals. But now they've come this far, I really don't want to be hanging on until the last couple of weeks of the season, wondering if 12 wins will just be enough, or the team needing to beat Adelaide in Adelaide to earn its spot. They need to get the job done this week.
No way Swans will fall prey to the tactics that produced the last debacle against the Hawks .
Its only the second wedding , and its only extended family...they'll understand.
Collingwood are also a mathematical chance of making the finals because they can still get to 12 wins and their percentage is competitive. I omitted Collingwood and Hawthorn because their chances of making the finals are too remote. Fremantle could also finish on 12 wins, but their percentage is so low that assessing their chances is of little more than comedy value. None of these three sides can get to 13 wins and that was the cutoff I set.
The eighth-placed side will either have 13 wins, 12.5 wins or 12 wins and a good percentage. 13 wins is the most likely IMO.
"Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final
No leeway, absolutely must beat Hawthorn given they have about 5-6 of their best 22 out and we are at full strength.
I've been surprised at how competitive Hawthorn have been given their injuries, either we've all under rated their kids, Clarko is a genius or they haven't played a true measuring stick recently which we must be.
We need to beat them on the ground and in the coaches box!
Except that you open by stating that we can probably afford to drop three games, which brings Hawthorn into the equation. Collingwood and Freo are no chances. Freo's percentage is under 80% and they've lost their best player for the rest of the season. Collingwood's percentage isn't quite as woeful (just under 100) but still well behind ours and they, too, have lost their best player for the rest of the year. They don't get to play West Coast every round between now and the end of the year.
Hawthorn's percentage is also ordinary but their draw makes it probably irrelevant (unless we draw before the end of the year). After the game against us they play Richmond, North, Carlton and the Bulldogs, all obviously games in Melbourne. The Tigers "should" beat them - on form - but who know with the Tigers. The next two they should win, and by round 23 it will depend on whether the Dogs have recaptured a semblance of their form of last year.
Beat them this Friday and we will put them out of their misery once and for all.
Doesnt GWS have an ordinary run home - Melbourne, Dogs, WC, Adelaide
Yes, they do - and there's a fair chance they can drop out of the top four.
The AFL website have got an article with a similar analysis to mine and have included Hawthorn.
Eight-pointers: Clutch games in the final five rounds
For what it's worth, there's also an eight-point game in the final round that may decide the wooden spoon: Brisbane vs North Melbourne.
"Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final
I think at some stage GWS are going to wake up from their slumber, and remember who they are, just like we did.
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