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Thread: 2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

  1. #5317
    Quote Originally Posted by Auntie.Gerald View Post
    Afl.com

    GREATER Western Sydney will move up to pick No.4 in a major pick swap with Adelaide.

    The Crows will receive the Giants' pick No.6 and their future first-round pick as part of the deal to slide back two spots.

    The move will likely allow the Giants to select a player from the open draft pool before a big comes on Academy gun Tom Green.
    This was always going to happen, and we missed a change to deal with GWS and get an extra first round pick next year.
    Adelaide smart. Sydney dumb.

  2. #5318
    Quote Originally Posted by Markwebbos View Post
    I'm hoping Swans will engineer a means to swap picks with Melbourne so we can bid on Green at 3, and then a player of our choosing after that. I reckon GWS would bet that he's exactly what Melbourne don't need.
    Green is not a pick 3. They wont match. No one would, and we'll waste a lot of picks just trying to one-up GWS.
    What do we care who GWS pick up? We should be concentrating on maximizing our pick value, rather than thwarting GWS draft moves.

  3. #5319
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    Quote Originally Posted by barry View Post
    Green is not a pick 3. They wont match. No one would, and we'll waste a lot of picks just trying to one-up GWS.
    What do we care who GWS pick up? We should be concentrating on maximizing our pick value, rather than thwarting GWS draft moves.
    Many draft commentators have Green rated right up there with Anderson and Rowell. Certainly with Anderson. To say he is "not a pick 3" doesn't reflect what many draft commentators say.

    If we had pick 3 through natural causes and Green were on the open market, he would be the obvious selection for us. A very highly rated, pure inside midfielder. He fills an obvious need, and the Swans have visited his home and came away impressed by him and his family.

    I do agree that, given our actual draft position, trading purely for the purposes of thwarting GWS is daft. GWS would almost certainly match a bid at 3 - and maybe we will find out for sure if Melbourne does bid on Green. So we wouldn't land up with him regardless and it would cost a lot. The only value in doing so would be if the Swans are hot on the player that they believe GWS are interested in apart from Green. And especially if they thought Adelaide weren't interested in that player. That is the downside to the Swans of this draft move, but there are lots of ifs, buts and maybes to which we don't know the answers.

    Quote Originally Posted by barry View Post
    This was always going to happen, and we missed a change to deal with GWS and get an extra first round pick next year.
    Adelaide smart. Sydney dumb.
    We didn't miss a move at all. The trade was always going to be significantly more valuable to GWS with Adelaide than with us. They are still not guaranteed it would work, given the Dees still loom at pick 3. But if they'd swapped with Sydney instead of Adelaide, the chance of Adelaide bidding on Green would remain.

    It takes two parties to be willing to trade with each other, and our position wasn't as strong as Adelaide's.

  4. #5320
    Quote Originally Posted by barry View Post
    This was always going to happen, and we missed a change to deal with GWS and get an extra first round pick next year.
    Adelaide smart. Sydney dumb.
    Why would they deal with us if they are dealing with Adelaide. We possibly offered them the same deal. Why does that make us dumb? It would be dumb of GWS not to do the deal with Adelaide.

  5. #5321
    Quote Originally Posted by barry View Post
    Green is not a pick 3. They wont match. No one would, and we'll waste a lot of picks just trying to one-up GWS.
    What do we care who GWS pick up? We should be concentrating on maximizing our pick value, rather than thwarting GWS draft moves.
    Champion Data rate him at 2 above Anderson.

    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...f80473c461e25a

    "CHAMPION DATA SAYS: Green is the best contested ball winning junior ever recorded by Champion Data."

  6. #5322
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    Quote Originally Posted by bloodspirit View Post
    To be honest the prospect fills me with horror. It's not that I particularly want the Giants to do well, and if MFC do bid on Green the outcome will be fine for us (especially if the Giants choose not to match), but it's just the horror that comes with witnessing a car crash. From the moment GWS traded with port for pick 6 I have had a sense of foreboding about this for them. I knew they would have to trade up again and pay dearly to do it. They are really paying through the nose to execute their strategy. To shell out so much without even being assured of the result is excruciating. I pity the GWS fan.
    No, I and I suspect, many others, would find it most amusing, if their smart arse plan blew up in their faces. Especially when they are paying way overs to the Crows.

  7. #5323
    Veterans List dejavoodoo44's Avatar
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    I find it interesting just how all in, GWS are going in this draft. Firstly, they lose a lot of points with the pick swap. If they manage to win the premiership next year, then their pick 18 is worth 985 points. Alternatively, if things don't quite go to plan and they finish bottom of the eight, then their pick 11 is worth 1329 points. Both a big loss on the 283 points that they gain, from swapping this year's 6 to 4.

    Also, if Green attracts an early bid, then they don't have the points to cover it, without going into debt. For instance, if we bid at 5, then with the 20% discount, they need to find 1502 points. Their picks 40, 59 & 60, tally up to 733 points. Which I assume means that they would owe 769 points next year. That could easily eat up their second and third round picks. Given that they've already traded that year's first and fourth round picks, that leaves them with the third round pick that they picked up from North.

    Of course, if they win a premiership in the next couple of seasons, then they'll probably be hailed as geniuses. On the other hand, a few unforeseen injuries and retirements, and no premierships, then this year's tactics may come back to haunt them.

  8. #5324
    We had to do the same with Mills as GWS are with Green

    There are so many layers to the importance of Green going to GwS

  9. #5325
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    Quote Originally Posted by Auntie.Gerald View Post
    We had to do the same with Mills as GWS are with Green

    There are so many layers to the importance of Green going to GwS
    Not really. The Giants always had priority access to Green and ample draft currency to acquire him. The trading they have been doing has nothing to do with securing Green and everything to do with acquiring another top 5 player in addition to Green. The Swans traded down their first round pick in 2015 relatively early in trade week, gaining a few more points in the process. They never flirted with what the Giants are trying to do.

    The Giants' tactics are only made possible by the extra teens pick they already had as a result of trading out Shiel last year. Without that, they wouldn't have had the currency to try and do what they have done. Whether the cost is worth the benefit is another matter. They must really like someone else in the top 5 this year. If we were talking about this a year ago, where the entire top 10 looked very strong, and a top five pick could have picked up a Rozee or Rankine or a King, it would have made a lot of sense. I'm not convinced that this year's top ten is anything like as exciting, outside of Rowell maybe. And Green.

  10. #5326
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    GWS are swimming in high quality mids and will probably add another in Green. What they want in addition to Green is either ruckman Jackson or HBF Young.

    By grabbing Crows pick 4, regardless of what Melbourne do (unless they bid on Green, fingers crossed) GWS will get one of those two plus Green. This trade with Adelaide actually strengthens our position as Crows now don't pick before us. Loving the pick trades this year, exciting stuff. Can only pray GWS come a cropper having paid dearly for their positioning.

  11. #5327
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    Quote Originally Posted by 707 View Post
    GWS are swimming in high quality mids and will probably add another in Green. What they want in addition to Green is either ruckman Jackson or HBF Young.

    By grabbing Crows pick 4, regardless of what Melbourne do (unless they bid on Green, fingers crossed) GWS will get one of those two plus Green. This trade with Adelaide actually strengthens our position as Crows now don't pick before us. Loving the pick trades this year, exciting stuff. Can only pray GWS come a cropper having paid dearly for their positioning.
    I don't think it strengthens our position. It means we'll get the sixth choice of player. If GWS hadn't traded up we might have got the fifth or sixth choice of player, depending on whether Adelaide or Melbourne bid for Green. What this means in reality (because all that matters in the end is the player, not the pick they were chosen at) depends on whether the Giants are more or less likely than the Crows were to choice the player(s) that Sydney is most interested in.

  12. #5328
    Two main possibilities now:

    1. Melbourne bid on Green completely stuffing GWS up. They have to use pick 4 to match losing the ability to pick up another top pick.
    2. Green gets to the Swans pick and we bid. GWS then match chewing up all their remaining picks plus going into severe deficit for 2020.

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