Our options are:Originally Posted by Melbourne_Blood
1. Pay him a huge contract without many restrictions hoping he recovers from injuries
2. Offer him an incentive based contract
3. Walk away
Think we all agree that option 1 would be too risky.
That leaves option 2 v 3. It makes no sense to walk away just on the assumption he may not accept the incentive based contract. Doing option 2 is like a free shot - if he accepts great, if he doesn't then we move on.
I had Thurlow as first to be delisted, and unless he plays a few games that are a further improvement on last week's improved showing, that's probably still the case. Wouldn't delist Bell. Although his disposals can let him down, he was a late convert to the game, so there's probably still improvement to be had. He's also tough, athletic and has good pressure and tackling skills. At worst, he could be converted into a quality tagger. Which I guess makes Clarke vulnerable. I also think that Ronke is vulnerable. While there's plenty of effort in his game, often that effort doesn't seems to have much purpose. He'll run past the ball, miss tackles and race to the wrong spot. I also think that Ludwig is right, when he says that we probably can't keep both Melican and Maibaum. So one of them might have to go.
I also suspect that the draft gurus will start to notice how good Gulden is. So if he climbs the rankings, it will make it difficult to get a high pick, then Campbell and then him. Therefore, instead of going into deficit, it could be handy if we had some more lower picks to bundle up. So, it would be good, if we could trade some of our fringe players, for picks or pick upgrades; instead of delisting them.
Why don't we just call Campbell a KPF and Gulden a ruckman, then we can draft the best player available with pick 2. All problems solved.
This whole thing about evaluating the club's positional needs is just definitional. It's a category problem. We just change the categories that players fall into rather than their respective characteristics.
To be fair, Gulden is likely to play as a small forward rotating into the mids for the first few years at least and Campbell is more of an outside player with potential to play off half back. He will likely develop an inside game similar to the way we use Florent. A pure inside mid like Phillips would compliment them. However, I’d also be happy with Logan McDonald as a tall.
With all due respect, I think too much weight is given to categorizing players into traditional classifications, especially when evaluating draftees. There's a lot of player shifting as they go through their careers. We really have 3 categories:
- Key Position Players: Generally tall players who play on other KPPs. Can play either forward or back.
- Ruckmen: A special subcategory of KPP who play a specific role at stoppages. Typically the physically largest of the KPP group.
- Everyone else. Attributes like speed, skills, running capacity, vision, decision making and competitiveness will eventually determine the best position for the player, which can change over time.
Just a couple of examples:
- Caleb Daniels, who seems too short to play as a defender (too easily isolated for lack of height) is doing great as the player moving the ball out of the back line. Plays a role like Jake Lloyd. Accurate kicking and vision are the keys.
- Shai Bolton, who was drafted as a small forward is someone who seems to have the ability to find the ball at stoppages and move it on quickly. Not your typical inside mid, but playing well in that role.
I expect the trend toward positional flexibility to continue, especially with the expected reduction in list sizes, which will forces players to play out of their usual positions when injuries occur.
I'm hoping list sizes do not get shrunk. I mean this year we might need every one. If they go to 36 as expected that will only give you 24 players in reserve. We had 12 injuries at one stage and another side has 14. That makes things difficult.
As for flexibility. I still think there is room for the specialist small forward. Charlie Cameron, Paps, Eddie, Butler etc are proving this. Then there is the player who will play on those small forwards. Without a Nick Smith I'm bloody sure teams struggle because there is no player who can shut them down.
As for total flexibility of the rest of the side. There are some players who will never play inside mid, Stephens, as their role is important elsewhere due to speed and being a good receiver. I think utility players like Heens, Mills, Dawson, Lloyd, Fox and more are very important. But so are match winners like Paps who are specialists.
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Worried that with no Vic U18 this year that more BOG performances from Gulden might have him moving up draft boards towards the first round - ouch!
Also a worry about how many picks end up in the first round given the significant number of academy and NGA players who could be bid on during the first round. It's already 19 picks with the GC pick 11 assistance pick (now in Geelong's hands), JUH will make it 20 picks, Campbell will make it 21 picks. That's starting to get to where Gulden could be picked :-(
Is the rule that we can't match bids on two first rounders, only one?
That rule exists, but it only applies if we finish in the top four (IIRC). I think we should be okay.
You may want to consider taking a refresher course in arithmetic. I'm afraid if I give you the answer now you just might go into a panic attack.
If the list sizes are cut to 36, I would imagine it would be done over 2 years, at least. And perhaps will exclude Cat B rookies, at least in the first year, like Wicks and BOC from the Swans. So that would make 4 main list/Cat A reductions this year. So if we draft 3 and don't recruit anyone, including Daniher, then we would need to reduce the list by 7. This paragraph is filled with conjecture. I don't know what will actually come to pass.
I think there is a view forming that the lists not be cut for the following reasons:
1. The injury depth issue
2. The removal of talent pathways like international cat b etc
3. The problem of establishing a meaningful reserves comp for developing players
4. The afl is making money now. The season is going as well as they hoped with the major target market in melbourne relying heavily on televised afl to get them through lockdown.
They’ve been aiming for it for it for 3 years, it’s not going to happen
Natanui managed more than 27 games in 5 years
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