Rounds 7 to 15 - many tough games ahead

[Thunder Shaker]

We are currently sitting in 8th place on the ladder with a 3-3 record. This looks good on the surface, but the reality is we have not yet played a side in the top half of the ladder. Nor will we do so in round 7 because we play Richmond.

Here is our draw for the next nine rounds. I have not seen so many 8-point games grouped so closely; with one exception these games are all 8-point games. We will have to be on our best games to win most of these.

Round 7 - Richmond (a). Richmond are currently outside the eight on percentage, so this game is a danger game. Richmond were one of two teams we did not defeat last year.

Round 8 - Western Bulldogs (a, at SCG). The Bulldogs have started the season well, but have lost their last two. They have won regularly at the SCG and they may cause us trouble again.

Round 9 - Hawthorn (a). Hawthorn are in much better form this year and are well-placed to make the finals. Even when the Hawks have had poor seasons, the fixture of Hawthorn away has often resulted in a loss to them in recent years.

Round 10 - Kangaroos (a, Manuka). Another danger game. Last year the Manuka fixture was the one that got away. The Kangaroos have a genuine home-ground advantage at that ground and they have beaten us a few times there. Given the Kangaroos' current position on the ladder, this is the only game listed that is currently not an 8-point game, but this could change by round 10.

Round 11 - St Kilda (h). After four away games in a row, we meet the Saints at home. We should win this one if we play well because it's at the SCG, but the Saints are not to be underestimated. Last time the Saints travelled to Sydney was in round 11 2004 when they were undefeated after 10 rounds. That game defined the 2004 season for both clubs.

Round 12 - Collingwood (h, Stadium Australia). Collingwood are looking ominous this year, and appear to be back to their best form of 2002 and 2003. When on their game like they are this year, they can beat us at this venue, as they did in 2003.

Round 13 - Fremantle (h). Fremantle are much improved this year. Because it's at the SCG, we can beat them, but we cannot take this game lightly.

Round 14 - Adelaide (h). Without a doubt, Adelaide are our bogey side. Our record against Adelaide is worse than that against any other club. Even at home we only have beaten them 5 times in 12 games. Of all the games, this one is one of the toughest.

Round 15 - West Coast (a). This is the much-awaited Grand Final rematch. This game is at Subiaco, so expect the Eagles to play well in front of their adoring fans.

The above may be mostly gloom and doom, but the bright side is in the last seven rounds all of the opposition are sides currently outside the top eight.

[JudesaGun]

Be very happy with 5 or 6 wins and i think that's feasible. If we manage to win the rest, we would not want to drop more than 3 games in those against:West Coast, Adelaide, St Kilda, Collingwood and Bulldogs. That would set us up nicely for the rest of season.

[hammo]

Its fair to say we won't win all these games but apart from the West Coast away match i think we'll start favourites in all the others (therefore should win).

While our form at the SCG this year is poor, we are lucky to be playing the likes of Freo and Adelaide there as wins at Subiaco and AAMI are very rare for Swans sides.

It's not worth looking too far ahead in this competition though.

[Mel]

I remember a very similar thread about this time - or maybe a little later - last year. It would be great to get the same result.

[Thunder Shaker]

Originally posted by Mel
I remember a very similar thread about this time - or maybe a little later - last year. It would be great to get the same result.
Were you thinking of this thread (http://www.redandwhiteonline.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=9602)?

[Go Swannies]

Do I get credit for picking the trend correctly?

Without Fooyhead I don't feel the need to post so frequently these days.

[Mel]

Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
Were you thinking of this thread (http://www.redandwhiteonline.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=9602)?

That's the one. I was just too lazy to look for it. Thanks TS.

[Jeffers1984]

I'm looking forward to the weeks ahead. I remember last year we had a similar tough road but we got through it and pretty much shaped the finals hardness we accquired.

Pretty much the same policy again. There is no point in making the finals if we don't hit these following games head on.

[giant]

Good work TS.

I think if we're dinkum in 2006 then 6/9 is the pass mark here. 7/9 would be great and 8 or 9 would really set us up for top 4 finish after a poor start.

Less than 6/9 (leaving us at best 8&7 at Rd 15) wouldn't be the end of us in what looks like another open year but it would make it very tuff to replicate 2005 heroics.

[Destructive]

It is indeed a tough road ahead, but we should beat Richmond next week.

[Go Swannies]

I'm going by the simplistic model that we are one game ahead of where we were this time last year - and we played some really crap games between R7-10.

Last year, the miracle was how strongly we finished the H&A season - and then played just as hard through the finals. And had minimal injuries. This year, we have a game up our sleeve already and I'm hoping we won't have the downturn over the next four games. That means we can afford to mess up a few games, or have some injuries, on the run home.

I also think this season will stay open. I doubt that the Crows and Eagles will fall out of the top 4. But I think it's very open for the other two spots. We must aim for one of those to be in with a chance. Not unlikely at this stage.

I'm expecting some of the other teams in the eight to have some setbacks along the way. Adelaide managed to play hard all year but this year they have come out of the blocks hard and may fade a bit (as the Eagles did last year - with a less taxing game plan). The Pies may maintain their intensity and good run without injuries but I doubt it. The young bodies of the Doggies and Hawks are likely to be tiring over the next 16 weeks. Freo (and the Dees and Tigers - on the same points as the Swans) don't have a good record of consistency. The Cats may regain form but it will soon be too late.

Then there's St Kilda. I know they have lots of talent but I have no faith in the coach - and less in the fitness staff.

It is still so early in the season. But I think the most likely runners for the flag are the Crows, Eagles and Swans, with the Pies in the running if they do as well over the next 6 weeks as they have in the past 6.

Of course, this is presuming the Swans continue to improve as they have so far this season. If they win the next four games and throw the switch back to show biz as they did in the first few rounds, they'll be battling with the Cats and Tigers for a low place inside the eight.

[goswannie14]

Originally posted by Go Swannies
Do I get credit for picking the trend correctly?

Without Fooyhead I don't feel the need to post so frequently these days. Was he really as much of a dipstick as that thread indicates?

[Go Swannies]

Originally posted by goswannie14
Was he really as much of a dipstick as that thread indicates?

That was him at his least provocative, most rational best.

[goswannie14]

Originally posted by Go Swannies
That was him at his least provocative, most rational best. Probably just as well I wasn't around when he was then.....Mind you Puckapunyal is always looking for new targets for the artillery to shot at.

[Thunder Shaker]

It was interesting reading through both threads and identifying the trends.

There are common features between this year and last and both threads identify them beautifully when read together.

* We are sitting in the top eight.
* We are at a crucial stage of the season.
* We had not won a game against another side in the top eight.
* We have a tricky game coming up against lowly opposition that have won three in a row.
* We then have a long stretch of difficult games.

My motives for creating both threads were to warn of difficult games ahead and not to get hopes up. Last year, last year it worked a treat.

This year could well be different. As the reigning premiers (it still sounds SO GOOD saying that!), we are the hunted, and we may lose one or two games as the opposition play with increased intensity.

Now my predictions.

The remaining part of the home and away season can be divided into two halves: rounds 7 to 15, and rounds 16 to 22. The first half holds the tough games, and the second half hold the easier games.

Rounds 7 to 15: We should win five or six out of nine. Eagles in Perth and Adelaide anywhere are the toughest games. We will probably lose them both. Dangerous games are Collingwood, Hawthorn, Dockers, Dogs. We should win two to four of all those if we play well. Let's say three wins. Saints, Tigers and Roos are easier games and we should win most or all of those.
We should win about six of nine.

Rounds 16 to 22: These games are easier but nevertheless contain danger games as well. We won't win all of them because Geelong away is always a tough game. Let's say five wins in the last seven games.

Conclusion: We should finish the season with 14 wins and eight losses. Not good enough for a top-four finish, but should get us into fifth or sixth position. We could finish with as few as ten wins and as many as 16.

[TheMase]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Thunder Shaker


Round 7 - Richmond (a).Richmond are currently outside the eight on percentage, so this game is a danger game. Richmond were one of two teams we did not defeat last year.


A game we should win. Is this game at the Dome? Because we play that ground very very well..

Round 8 - Western Bulldogs (a, at SCG). The Bulldogs have started the season well, but have lost their last two. They have won regularly at the SCG and they may cause us trouble again.
Whilst Eade was once coach of the Swans at the SCG this team plays very attacking football. They will find it hard to find the space they require on the small SCG

Round 9 - Hawthorn (a). Hawthorn are in much better form this year and are well-placed to make the finals. Even when the Hawks have had poor seasons, the fixture of Hawthorn away has often resulted in a loss to them in recent years.

Except the Hawks to start fading at this time. Their strongest asset is probably their midfield, something I believe the Swans are capable of negating.

Round 10 - Kangaroos (a, Manuka). Another danger game. Last year the Manuka fixture was the one that got away. The Kangaroos have a genuine home-ground advantage at that ground and they have beaten us a few times there. Given the Kangaroos' current position on the ladder, this is the only game listed that is currently not an 8-point game, but this could change by round 10.

Have been a bogey team for us previous years but are struggling at the moment. Will need to find something to beat the Swans, at their current rate of improvement.

Round 11 - St Kilda (h). After four away games in a row, we meet the Saints at home. We should win this one if we play well because it's at the SCG, but the Saints are not to be underestimated. Last time the Saints travelled to Sydney was in round 11 2004 when they were undefeated after 10 rounds. That game defined the 2004 season for both clubs.

Find it tough on the SCG

Round 12 - Collingwood (h, Stadium Australia). Collingwood are looking ominous this year, and appear to be back to their best form of 2002 and 2003. When on their game like they are this year, they can beat us at this venue, as they did in 2003.

We have a pretty good record against Collingwood, this will really depend on the rate of improvement from the Swans and if Collingwood are continuing their good trot (I doubt it, Richmond jumped the blocks last year didn't they?)


Round 13 - Fremantle (h).Fremantle are much improved this year. Because it's at the SCG, we can beat them, but we cannot take this game lightly.


Fremantle at the SCG are hopeless. They aren't a great side, and I do not expect this to change.

Round 14 - Adelaide (h).Without a doubt, Adelaide are our bogey side. Our record against Adelaide is worse than that against any other club. Even at home we only have beaten them 5 times in 12 games. Of all the games, this one is one of the toughest.

Once again depending on our rate of improvement. Adelaide are a tough side and this game could go either way

Round 15 - West Coast (a). This is the much-awaited Grand Final rematch. This game is at Subiaco, so expect the Eagles to play well in front of their adoring fans.

We don't usually play well at Subi, and West Coast will want to avenge their Grand Final loss. I don't expect to win this one, but think it will be close



This of course a long way away, and as I have mentioned above depends on the Swans rate of improvement.

It would see that it is setup nicely for us though. Gradually seeing harder and harder teams through to Round 15 against last years runners up.

At our current rate of improvement we'll hit our straps around Round 15-17. Very similar to last year.

Roos is a smart man.

[cruiser]

Originally posted by Jeffers1984
I'm looking forward to the weeks ahead. I remember last year we had a similar tough road but we got through it and pretty much shaped the finals hardness we accquired.

Pretty much the same policy again. There is no point in making the finals if we don't hit these following games head on. Everything Jeffers said.

[SimonH]

I view the next 9 rounds as divided into 2 parts: the easier bit (R7-10) and the harder bit (R11-15). That's not to say we couldn't lose all of R7-10 and win several of the next 5 (given Sydney's perverse streak, this is entirely possible); but on current form, that's the way it divides up.

Re this week: I've watched (as much as I could stomach of) Richmond's games over the last 2 weeks, and they have won both while playing utterly pitiful football (against an opponent who was playing marginally worse). Of course, any team with Richo and 3 or 4 other marking forwards can't be written off, but 77% far better sums up how they're travelling, than 3-3.

Our games against St Kilda, if anything, have a reputation for being unpredictable. Memorable on our side of the ledger are R11 2004 and the prelim final 2005. But on the other, how's about the SCG game in 1998 which was rated as roughly a toss-of-the-coin for tipsters, where we got beaten a casual 100 points?

Even if Collingwood start tailing off a la Richmond (and I'll predict they won't), they were 5-9 when they played us at Homebush last year and we just squeaked in by a point, in a corker of a game.

Of course, there's a theoretical 'break' in the hard games with Freo at the SCG in R13. But I wouldn't have backed Freo with bad money to beat WCE on the weekend, especially not if they needed to kick the last goal of the game to do so; so who knows if they can finally get some consistency and some spine away from home?

R14 and R15 will define whether we are genuine back-to-back contenders. Given our slow start to the year, we should thank the AFL for not programming these games until the very end of the round-robin.

But in the meantime, we need to make hay while the sun shines and clock up a few wins on the trot.

[Nico]

Kosi should be due back by the time we play the Saints, I am already shakin' in me boots.

Half the Maggies, Crows and Eagles might come down with Bird Flu.

Faber, Quisque, fortunae. - each is the architect of their own fortune.

Never mind about the draw and what might be - Our destiny is in our own hands.

[ROK Lobster]

Originally posted by Nico
Half the Maggies, Crows and Eagles might come down with Bird Flu.
Hope not. Swans are birds too.

[big bear]

No easy games in the AFL. This is not rocket science but stating the obvious. This applies not only to us but all clubs. Bit hard to work out games well in advance as we don't know who is available for us or opposition clubs. One week at a time.

[Nico]

Originally posted by ROK Lobster
Hope not. Swans are birds too.

Ah yes that I realise ROK. Difference is the Swans are situated in the centre of the universe oblivious and impervious to the rest of the world.

[Schneiderman]

Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
The above may be mostly gloom and doom, but the bright side is in the last seven rounds all of the opposition are sides currently outside the top eight.

May be? You could always put a positive spin on things:

Round 7 - Richmond (a). Brown has always been critical to their good performance against us, and we now have more tall options down back than before to deal with Richo. We like to play the Dome, so this should be a very winnable game.

Round 8 - Western Bulldogs (a, at SCG). The Bulldogs are running out of big men fast. Plus they seem to really hate man-on-man footy. Hit em hard early and make sure you win the hitouts, and they are ready to crack. A long year for a team that has too many light frames and young minds.

Round 9 - Hawthorn (a). Similar to the Doggies, the Hawks will wilt as the year progresses. The best players are aging, and the younger players too early in their development. Bazza was colossal the last time they met, and poor old Zac may well have to learn another 'lesson'.

Round 10 - Kangaroos (a, Manuka). Last time they met everyone was warning the Roos may well derail the Swans before they hit the finals. The result was a shellacking by the eventual Premiers. It is expected that by halfway through the season, lessons like the poor performance last time at this ground would motivate the boys to bring their A game.

Round 11 - St Kilda (h). Take heart from the Geelong game earlier in the year. Teams that suffer a finals scar from 2005 will be put to the torch again this year. The knowledge that we CAN beat them, and that our best game is better than theirs, means we will be pumped to ensure the trend continues.

Round 12 - Collingwood (h, Stadium Australia). At the rate both teams are travelling by this round, it is highly likely it will be a similar situation to 2003 - two top teams in full flight with great support. This should be a 70,000+ crowd with any luck, and a real test for the Swans character. Could go either way, and it will be by less than a goal.

Round 13 - Fremantle (h). Freo hate to travel to Sydney, so a solid performance from the team is important. Nevertheless not the hardest game to win at home.

Round 14 - Adelaide (h). The Swans lift for the really big games, and this will be one of our biggest. A close loss would still put us well ahead of the other teams if Adelaide continues on current form, but with so many close losses over there in recent years, this may well be the year we get one in our favour. May well be a very close replication of last years last encounter, but the result is very hard to pick.

Round 15 - West Coast (a). Very very tough to win. Unless Cox, Cousins, Judd, Kerr, Hunter and Wirrpanda are all out injured. Having said that, fair umpiring may be the only thing we need considering how well we know we can play over there.


Never under-estimate the confidence a Premiership gives to a team. If we can stay relatively fit and motivated over the next ten rounds, winning 7 or 8 out of the nine is not out of the question. I am still confident of a top 4 finish, likely a third or fourth IMO. To do that we will need to win about 15 or 16 games, so even 5 or 6 out of these lot isn't as bad as it seems.

[NMWBloods]

What's the point of all this speculation...

[Schneiderman]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
What's the point of all this speculation...

Are you talking about the whole RWO thing, or just this one thread? :p

[The Undertaker]

Fairly tough road ahead for the Bloods.

Nth Melbourne are always tough in Canberra.The Dogs and Pies are firing.Playing good sides like Freo at home and West Coast on their turf.

Should be very interesting.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Schneiderman
Are you talking about the whole RWO thing, or just this one thread? :p The thread, RWO, everything really... :frown :p

[Go Swannies]

Is it 2006? Feels like Groundhog Day. I'm looking forward to us playing the form teams - and hopefully playing them out of form as we have in the past. We have had a good run in - easy teams when the Swans were playing so badly that they would have lost to the RWO First 18. And lose we did. Then we played the Cats to deflate that bubble. Then the Lions. And have played into some sort of form.

Next the in-form Tigers - and that will be a test. And they are followed by the speedy Dogs. If we play hard we'll stop their run again. But R11-15 will show where we stand for 2006 - Saints, Pies (if they are still in form), the erratic Freo (at the SCG), the Crows then Eagles.

After that, we should have a percentage-boosting run to the end of the H&A.

I'd love us to have a booming run to back-to-back flags. But in a way that monkey is off our backs and back in the cage. I'll watch our great games against Port in 2003, the Eagles last year and the whole finals, over and over again. But I find it hard to get excited watching us thrash the Lions last year. So bring on some hard games - and some hard fought wins.

Despite what fans of other clubs believe, the Swans play some great footy. I'd prefer to watch that than a boring run to another flag. Of course, the ideal would be a series of brilliant games leading to our second flag. But this time, can we win a few by more than 10 points? (The Saints QF should be the game plan we aim for.)

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Go Swannies
Then we played the Cats to deflate that bubble. Bubble was already deflating.

[msb]

Making all these predictions is absolutely stupid!! No one knows who will beat anyone, especially this year. Injuries is the key, big baz could do a knee this week and that would be it for us in 06, guaranteed!! Stick with the old cliche, one week at a time.

[Go Swannies]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Bubble was already deflating.

When the Doggies beat them I think most of Melbourne thought it could be a GF preview. Then they went down to the lowly Premiers and the bubble was well and truly @@@@@@@.

[cruiser]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
What's the point of all this speculation... Hmmm, interesting comment given your comments in another thread regarding what-iffing last years QF final.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by cruiser
Hmmm, interesting comment given your comments in another thread regarding what-iffing last years QF final. Yes...

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Go Swannies
When the Doggies beat them I think most of Melbourne thought it could be a GF preview. Then they went down to the lowly Premiers and the bubble was well and truly @@@@@@@. Geelong's thumping at the hands of Hawthorn had already started the bubble leaking.

Also showed how even the competition is.

[cruiser]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Yes... Aw, cmon, you can respond better than that.:p

[NMWBloods]

I thought my comment was fairly obvious in light of the other thread.

[Snowy]

Hawks have a few injury problems

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Snowy
Hawks have a few injury problems Yes - Crawford, Croad and Jacobs out, plus Hodge is carrying an injury.

[dendol]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Yes - Crawford, Croad and Jacobs out, plus Hodge is carrying an injury.

I soooo wanna tip the Lions this week! Everyone at my work comp will be going Hawks, and seeing as the game is at Carrara as well.... so lions, yes? Im 2 points behind and need one against the crowd! :confused:

[Go Swannies]

Originally posted by dendol
I soooo wanna tip the Lions this week! Everyone at my work comp will be going Hawks, and seeing as the game is at Carrara as well.... so lions, yes? Im 2 points behind and need one against the crowd! :confused:

I switched when I hear who was out. But of course the Lions have to do it without Aker.

[dendol]

Originally posted by Go Swannies
I switched when I hear who was out. But of course the Lions have to do it without Aker.

dammit, what to do, what to do....

Dawson on Brown/Bradshaw/Michael/Keating/McDonald... have to back the gorillas.. Lions by 13 points!

[NMWBloods]

I think the Lions will win.

[Go Swannies]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
I think the Lions will win.

We agree!?

[ScottH]

Originally posted by Go Swannies
We agree!? Me too, they are due for a win, and I reckon a few other senior players have been put on notice.

[Missy]

GO THE HAWKIES!!!!

[Claret]

Rounds 7-15 not looking so threatening now are they?

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Claret
Rounds 7-15 not looking so threatening now are they? Still look tough.

[Nico]

The way we are playing a 15-7 finish is not too far fetched = top 4 easily.

[BigBadBarryNo1]

Round 12-15 will certainly separate the tryers from the champions for us.

It will certainly toughen up our boys and certainly if we can catch 2-3 big wins, say against Eagles / Pies there, it will hold the boys well.

I also hope that injury doesn't hamper us during that time. I remember last year when Jude got hit down, he played a bit under his normal playing style..

I will certainly enjoy a MASSIVE win against Collingwood, which I'm watching on my birthday :)

[OldE]

Anyone who thinks Collingwood will be easy-beats have another thing coming! They are mentally tough, have amazing depth, real self-belief and some of the best support staff in the competition. Much as I'd love to say we'll thrash them, I think we'll find it tough.

They aren't the Colliwobbles. They are a strong team, and we ought to respect them!

[BigBadBarryNo1]

I'd probably agree. I've always looked forward to our contests with the Wobbles (*smirk*), not just because my birthday's on the day I've gone out to watch the game @ Telstra. :p They almost stole it from us last year too.

Despite them being the most hated team in Victoria, they do not have my love, but they do have my respect, especially for the way that Malthouse carries himself. But I always back our Swans for a good win, just to rub it in their president's face in the same way we did when Davis had a massive finals series last year. :D

In the past couple of years, they've lost because of the slowness of their aged players, or because of injuries to their senior stars. (I'm not sure if they should have gotten rid of Shane Woewodin, despite his age.. because he was always a confidence-type-player and was just going through a down spot because his team wasn't winning..).