Our worst possible finish.

[Sanecow]

Using http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php I can only push us down as far as 12th and it it's quite unlikely to get that bad.

1 Adelaide 22 14 8 0 2325 1734 56 134.0
3 Melbourne 22 14 8 0 2165 1980 56 109.3
2 West Coast 22 13 9 0 2145 2038 52 105.2
8 Fremantle 22 13 9 0 1978 2092 52 94.5
5 Collingwood 22 12 10 0 2279 2131 48 106.9
9 Geelong 22 12 10 0 2095 1969 48 106.3
7 W Bulldogs 22 12 10 0 2251 2150 48 104.6
11 Bris Lions 22 12 10 0 2085 2137 48 97.5

10 Richmond 22 12 10 0 1869 2195 48 85.1
6 St Kilda 22 11 11 0 2119 1830 44 115.7
13 Kangaroos 22 11 11 0 2065 2001 44 103.1
4 Sydney 22 11 11 0 1998 1945 44 102.7
12 Port Adel 22 10 12 0 2062 2080 40 99.1
14 Hawthorn 22 8 14 0 1811 2276 32 79.5
15 Essendon 22 5 16 1 2055 2367 22 86.8
16 Carlton 22 5 16 1 1895 2272 22 83.4


Port play the Roos so I couldn't get them both above us.

[giant]

Isn't this sort of thing best left to NMW Bloods?

[Sanecow]

I am trying to walk a mile in his shoes.

[barry]

Originally posted by giant
Isn't this sort of thing best left to NMW Bloods?

I think he could get us into 9th if he put his mind to it.
In the year of the "Super draft", 9th is the worst spot to be.

[australian_made]

Bearing in mind that this Ladder Predictor has us on 44 points and sitting in 4th place right now :D

[hammo]

Originally posted by barry
I think he could get us into 9th if he put his mind to it.
In the year of the "Super draft", 9th is the worst spot to be.
Wouldn't being Premiers be the worst?

[Sanecow]

Originally posted by australian_made
Bearing in mind that this Ladder Predictor has us on 44 points and sitting in 4th place right now :D

You're right! Now I'm excited! We might finish as low as 13th!

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by giant
Isn't this sort of thing best left to NMW Bloods? <Yawns> at the stalker...

[ROK Lobster]

Originally posted by Sanecow
You're right! Now I'm excited! We might finish as low as 13th! And does not take into account things like Hall doing his ACL and Goodes breaking his leg (N Brown style) in the final round or two.

[satchmopugdog]

or ,conversely,MOL kicking 6 straight!!!!!

[cruiser]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
<Yawns> at the stalker... You collect them.

[cruiser]

Originally posted by Sanecow
8 Fremantle 22 13 9 0 1978 2092 52 94.5 Freo in 4th - hahahahahahahahahahaha!!!

[Sanecow]

3 Melbourne 22 15 7 0 2187 1957 60 111.7
1 Adelaide 22 14 8 0 2300 1759 56 130.7
2 West Coast 22 13 9 0 2142 2041 52 104.9
5 Collingwood 22 13 9 0 2249 2160 52 104.1
7 W Bulldogs 22 13 9 0 2232 2169 52 102.9
8 Fremantle 22 13 9 0 1906 2164 52 88.0
4 St Kilda 22 12 10 0 2097 1820 48 115.2
11 Bris Lions 22 12 10 0 2110 2112 48 99.9

10 Richmond 22 12 10 0 1869 2195 48 85.1
9 Geelong 22 11 11 0 2051 2013 44 101.8
12 Port Adel 22 10 12 0 2137 2005 40 106.5
14 Hawthorn 22 10 12 0 2105 1982 40 106.2
13 Kangaroos 22 10 12 0 2050 2016 40 101.6
6 Sydney 22 10 12 0 1841 2070 40 88.9
16 Carlton 22 4 17 1 1867 2300 18 81.1
15 Essendon 22 3 18 1 2021 2401 14 84.1


They fixed up the current ladder positions. We can still finish third last!

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by cruiser
You collect them. About as much fun as collecting boils...

[cruiser]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
About as much fun as collecting boils... Then you should avoid behaving in a way that causes you to get them.

[goswannie14]

Originally posted by satchmopugdog
or ,conversely,MOL kicking 6 straight!!!!! Then you can drink all that alcohol that you have been asking about...with my blessing.;)

[Sanecow]

Updated worst case: 12th position


# Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 Adelaide 22 15 7 0 2308 1663 60 138.7
3 Melbourne 22 14 8 0 2163 1934 56 111.8
2 West Coast 22 14 8 0 2049 2091 56 97.9
8 Fremantle 22 14 8 0 1960 2065 56 94.9
7 W Bulldogs 22 13 9 0 2229 2150 52 103.6
5 St Kilda 22 12 10 0 2012 1862 48 108.0
9 Geelong 22 12 10 0 2099 1956 48 107.3
6 Collingwood 22 12 10 0 2200 2121 48 103.7

11 Bris Lions 22 11 11 0 2188 2025 44 108.0
12 Kangaroos 22 11 11 0 2084 1931 44 107.9
10 Richmond 22 11 11 0 1985 2057 44 96.4
4 Sydney 22 11 11 0 1907 1993 44 95.6
13 Port Adel 22 10 12 0 2105 1986 40 105.9
14 Hawthorn 22 8 14 0 1765 2277 32 77.5
15 Carlton 22 5 16 1 1850 2270 22 81.4
16 Essendon 22 2 19 1 1944 2467 10 78.8

[ugg]

Doesn't the glass look more full each week?

[Xie Shan]

Keep updating our "worst possible finish" Cow. I sense that now we are back in the top 4, RWO will need this dose of realism as the finals approach.

[dendol]

i'll be really impressed if you can somehow manufacture a wooden spoon for us from this position. Everything else in this thread is pointless.

[Sanecow]

There is an actual point. Your loss if you can't see it.

[dendol]

6 Sydney 22 10 12 0 1841 2070 40 88.9

yeah i see the point there.

[Sanecow]

Well then it's not pointless, is it?

[dendol]

it was eye opening - a revelation! I didnt think it was possible, but now I know better.

[Sanecow]

That's why I perform the exercise.

[dendol]

and now for your next trick..?

[Sanecow]

Writing a guide for blockheads: "How to read an AFL ladder".

[Sanecow]

OK, our worst possible finish is now 9th:

Predicted Ladder
# Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 Adelaide 22 15 7 0 2291 1655 60 138.4
2 West Coast 22 15 7 0 2153 1975 60 109.0
7 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2270 1986 56 114.3
5 Melbourne 22 14 8 0 2082 1973 56 105.5
4 St Kilda 22 13 9 0 2065 1792 52 115.2
8 W Bulldogs 22 13 9 0 2270 2105 52 107.8
6 Fremantle 22 13 9 0 1993 2007 52 99.3
9 Geelong 22 12 10 0 2129 1909 48 111.5

3 Sydney 22 12 10 0 1952 1906 48 102.4
10 Richmond 22 12 10 0 2030 2014 48 100.7
12 Bris Lions 22 10 12 0 2051 2164 40 94.7
11 Port Adel 22 9 13 0 1960 2127 36 92.1
13 Kangaroos 22 8 14 0 1862 2141 32 86.9
14 Hawthorn 22 7 15 0 1816 2229 28 81.4
16 Carlton 22 4 17 1 1837 2286 18 80.3
15 Essendon 22 4 17 1 1927 2419 18 79.6

It's actually extremely unlikely that Geelong will push us out of the eight, they need some big wins &/or some big Sydney losses.

Theoretically Richmond could push us to 10th but we would have to lose by more than 100 points and they would have to win by more than 100 points each match.

Realistically, our worst finish is eighth.

[swantastic]

Originally posted by Sanecow
Realistically, our worst finish is eighth. You must be in LALA land,our worst possible finish is 4th IMO.We have to realy @@@@ up to finish lower than that,and i couldnt see that happening.

[goswannie14]

Originally posted by swantastic
You must be in LALA land,our worst possible finish is 4th IMO.We have to realy @@@@ up to finish lower than that,and i couldnt see that happening. I think you're missing the point of the thread. It's a weekly update of where we would finish if we lost every game from here in. It's been going for a few weeks now.

[Big Al]

Originally posted by goswannie14
I think you're missing the point of the thread. It's a weekly update of where we would finish if we lost every game from here in. It's been going for a few weeks now.

Also a reminder not to get too carried away with our position. Nothing in footy is guaranteed.

[swantastic]

Originally posted by goswannie14
I think you're missing the point of the thread. It's a weekly update of where we would finish if we lost every game from here in. It's been going for a few weeks now. Well it is sunday night and church was hard today,it took it out of me;)

[goswannie14]

Originally posted by swantastic
Well it is sunday night and church was hard today,it took it out of me;) We had a ball. It was funny though, our guest speaker was Collingwood's chaplain. He didn't want to talk footy, but is getting some of the players involved in some great community work.

[swantastic]

Originally posted by goswannie14
We had a ball. It was funny though, our guest speaker was Collingwood's chaplain. He didn't want to talk footy, but is getting some of the players involved in some great community work. Hes not doing very good down there keeping them on the straight and narrow:frown

[Agent 86]

Originally posted by cruiser
Freo in 4th - hahahahahahahahahahaha!!!
6 in a row now.

[melbloods78]

i would LOVE an Adelaide, West Coast, Sydney, Freo top four !!!

- Freo have shown to have it over the crows for a couple of years
- west coast over there dont scare us
- adelaide have got it over us so want to avoid them

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by melbloods78
- Freo have shown to have it over the crows for a couple of years Not really. It's 1-2 in the past couple of years and 4-5 in the past five years.


- adelaide have got it over us so want to avoid them We can't avoid them forever.

[Sanecow]

Worst case (if we keep LRT at full forward, Hall in the pocket and Richards in the ruck): Ninth
Realistic worst case (ie if we play our last two like we played v Geelong): Eighth

[Sanecow]

Good news: the worst possible finish for Sydney is 7th.
Bad news: if we lose this weekend, we'll probably see it happen.

If it happens, for week one of the finals:
Good news: we probably play in Melbourne.
Bad news: we possibly play Fremantle in Perth.

[SimonH]

Originally posted by Sanecow
Good news: the worst possible finish for Sydney is 7th.
Bad news: if we lose this weekend, we'll probably see it happen.

If it happens, for week one of the finals:
Good news: we probably play in Melbourne.
Bad news: we possibly play Fremantle in Perth. Nope. While we're going with nightmare scenarios, if Sydney lose to Carlton by about 300 points, and the Dogs beat the Dons by about the same margin, our worst possible finish is still 8th.

But it is true to say that, one week out from the finals, us making the 8 is finally secure!

Speaking of nightmare scenarios (for other teams): Freo, the form team of the competition and some people's new favourites for the flag. If they lose this week they could easily finish 7th, and their best-realistic scenario (Adelaide and the other favourites win) is that they finish 6th. You would be mad to back them to win the flag (or even make the GF) from those positions. No such thing as a low-pressure game in this ultra-even comp!

[Sanecow]

Originally posted by SimonH
Nope. While we're going with nightmare scenarios, if Sydney lose to Carlton by about 300 points, and the Dogs beat the Dons by about the same margin, our worst possible finish is still 8th.


You clearly don't understand the word "possible".

[SimonH]

Originally posted by Sanecow
You clearly don't understand the word "possible". Actually, the reason for my post is that I do understand it. A coupling of results that could be expected to happen barely once in 1000 years, or only if Sydney do a Pakistan and walk off the ground half-way through the 3rd quarter, is by definition possible. It's just exceedingly unlikely, improbable, in the realms of wild speculation, or any other choice of wording you might like. But possible? Absolutely.

'Our worst likely finish' or 'our worst finish based on unfavourable but realistic results in other games' would have been a different thread.

[Sanecow]

There is a limited amount of time to score goals so there is a limit on the possible margin in a game of football.

[wheels27]

Originally posted by SimonH
Nope. While we're going with nightmare scenarios, if Sydney lose to Carlton by about 300 points, and the Dogs beat the Dons by about the same margin, our worst possible finish is still 8th.

But it is true to say that, one week out from the finals, us making the 8 is finally secure!

Speaking of nightmare scenarios (for other teams): Freo, the form team of the competition and some people's new favourites for the flag. If they lose this week they could easily finish 7th, and their best-realistic scenario (Adelaide and the other favourites win) is that they finish 6th. You would be mad to back them to win the flag (or even make the GF) from those positions. No such thing as a low-pressure game in this ultra-even comp!

Should Freo finish 6th, they could quite easily end up having two finals in a row at Subi, the second v WC, surely would hold no fears given yesterday's result, or they could play at Subi, then in Melb, then back to Subi, just continue there standard season travelling regime.

[SimonH]

Originally posted by Sanecow
There is a limited amount of time to score goals so there is a limit on the possible margin in a game of football. The joy of stats (http://www.fullpointsfooty.net/facts_and_feats.htm#Highest%20First%20Class%20Scor es).

(PS It's easier for the Dogs than I foreshadowed. By my calculations, they only need a net turnaround of about 370 points.)

[Sanecow]

I can't cut through the horror of the colouring - is there a point?

Highest Scores for Each League
V/AFL 37.17 (239) by Geelong vs. Brisbane Bears in 1992
is all I see of relevance.

[wheels27]

To avoid travelling to either Perth or Adelaide would we be hoping for *gulp* Collingwood and Melbourne to be in top four and results to work very specifically to play a loser, then a winner at MCG?

[SimonH]

Originally posted by Sanecow
I can't cut through the horror of the colouring - is there a point?

Highest Scores for Each League
V/AFL 37.17 (239) by Geelong vs. Brisbane Bears in 1992
is all I see of relevance. Remember all of the way back to your previous post?
Originally posted by Sanecow
There is a limited amount of time to score goals so there is a limit on the possible margin in a game of football.The amount of time in a game of football does not (generally) vary with the league in which the game is played. Answered your own question yet?

[Sanecow]

The rules are different in different competitions. Here's something more relevant:

Hightest scores. (http://afl.allthestats.com/records/HighestScores.php)

Greatest margins. (http://afl.allthestats.com/records/GreatestMargins.php)

Nobody has cracked 200 points or defeated a team by more than 150 points since 2000. With all the effort the AFL has put into keeping the competition even, with all the focus on flooding, it's just not conceivable that there will be two 300 point beltings this week.

[AnnieH]

Originally posted by cruiser
Freo in 4th - hahahahahahahahahahaha!!!

Cruiser quoted on 3rd August ...

They now sit third. Isn't it just amazing what can happen in three weeks of footy.

Jeez I love my footy!!!!

GOODSEY FOR CAPTAIN.