Round 10 - Western Bulldogs

[Cheer Squad]

Saturday's match against the Bulldogs is the start of a challenging four-match sequence of difficult games for us.

We lost all three games against the Bulldogs last year. Remember Round 7 at the SCG, and then Round 18 at Manuka Oval? In both games we got off to a good start, and were then held to a single goal in the second quarter while they raced away with 7 and 8 goals respectively. In last year's semi-final, the damage was done in the third quarter, with us being held goal-less while they piled on 5 goals to set up a solid win.

That was then and this is now, but will anything change? Although both teams are sitting on 5 wins and 4 losses with similar percentages, the Bulldogs are coming off a narrow loss in a tough game against Geelong, while we are coming off a relatively easy win against Port Adelaide.

Since the semi-final there have been a couple of personnel changes. We won't have Spida, Leo Barry, Kennelly, or Vespremi, and LRT may not play. Will that make a difference in our favour?

It's a tough call, but I think the Bulldogs are going to win. Probably by 14 points. Hope I'm wrong.

[johnno]

put us down to win by 20-39 points. We have to win this week against the dogs as this would be 4 loses in a row if we were to lose to them again this week. That would officially make them nemesis III after the crows and pies.

[ScottH]

O ye of little faith!!:rolleyes:

[Yuri H]

If we can play like this past game, I'm optimistic. Which may be a bad thing; it's always when I get hopeful that disaster strikes (said the typical Slav).

[AnnieH]

Swans by under 9.

[Dalai Lama]

time to worm the Dogs?

[Haz]

Vespa Vespa Vespa!!! should get a game in the ressies this week no?
Hopefully he comes back in the side to give us a bit of flair for the upcoming weeks! Just love his passion and antics when he kicks a goal! If he could get his accuracy right he could give us that X factor, complementing the magic of micky and even goodes now in the forward line!!

[AnnieH]

Vespa Vespa Vespa!!! should get a game in the ressies this week no?
Hopefully he comes back in the side to give us a bit of flair for the upcoming weeks! Just love his passion and antics when he kicks a goal! If he could get his accuracy right he could give us that X factor, complementing the magic of micky and even goodes now in the forward line!!

Who are you going to get rid of for Vespa?

IMO the only change that can be made from yesterday's team is to give poor Ablett a rest (for the rest of the season).

[Jeffers1984]

Prepare for another Heart attack i reckon (I said the same thing last week in the Port thread, hoping this works again).

[Triple B]

As previously mentioned, in both H&A games last year we outplayed them for 3 of the 4 quarters, but got absolutely slaughtered in the 2nd quarter in both games.

In the final, we were more than holding our own, but just stopped to a walk after halftime. I remember DrJ and myself looked at each other and we both said at the same time 'We're @@@@@@, they've stopped running'. I guess the wet, heavy Homebush ground the week before took it's toll.

If we can keep the pressure up, we've a great chance this week, especially them being without Murphy who was the catalyst for them in both the Canberra game and the final to keep the Dogs in the game before they took charge.

[johnno]

As previously mentioned, in both H&A games last year we outplayed them for 3 of the 4 quarters, but got absolutely slaughtered in the 2nd quarter in both games.

In the final, we were more than holding our own, but just stopped to a walk after halftime. I remember DrJ and myself looked at each other and we both said at the same time 'We're @@@@@@, they've stopped running'. I guess the wet, heavy Homebush ground the week before took it's toll.

If we can keep the pressure up, we've a great chance this week, especially them being without Murphy who was the catalyst for them in both the Canberra game and the final to keep the Dogs in the game before they took charge.

They are also going to be without Gilbee and Higgins.

[TheHood]

The Dogs are and enigma and the came home fast against the Cats. It was good to watch.

BUT, it was at the Dome and I think some of the Cats who played were under-done, Ablett had 3 gettables on goal and missed, Chapman was fatigued and Harley isn't at full tilt either.

Finally, Mooney was missing and that meant when you are fatigued in the middle and there is no easy forward target, it's hard work getting past the Dogs determined half back line for a reasonable shot on goal (as the game wore on it was obvious).

The Dogs must be harrassed into error all over the field.

Hall needs to run Lake around and create room for Mick and others. My feeling is Micky O will be very important ie 4 or 5 goals from him.

This will be a pretty good game. One to look forward to.

[desredandwhite]

I think we will just sneak over the line.. But there are a hell of a lot of wotifs.

[ShockOfHair]

IMO the only change that can be made from yesterday's team is to give poor Ablett a rest (for the rest of the season).

Annie's right (two words you don't often see side by side:D ).

He's been out of form for a year and a half. Give him a rest until he finds it.

This week against the Doggies depends on which Swans team turns up.

The mob from yesterday or the team that went scoreless for two quarters against the Saints, got pantsed in the first half by Freo, nearly run over by Richmond, belted by the Cats, etc., etc..

[top40]

Saturday's match against the Bulldogs is the start of a challenging four-match sequence of difficult games for us.

We lost all three games against the Bulldogs last year. Remember Round 7 at the SCG, and then Round 18 at Manuka Oval? In both games we got off to a good start, and were then held to a single goal in the second quarter while they raced away with 7 and 8 goals respectively. In last year's semi-final, the damage was done in the third quarter, with us being held goal-less while they piled on 5 goals to set up a solid win.

That was then and this is now, but will anything change? Although both teams are sitting on 5 wins and 4 losses with similar percentages, the Bulldogs are coming off a narrow loss in a tough game against Geelong, while we are coming off a relatively easy win against Port Adelaide.

Since the semi-final there have been a couple of personnel changes. We won't have Spida, Leo Barry, Kennelly, or Vespremi, and LRT may not play. Will that make a difference in our favour?

It's a tough call, but I think the Bulldogs are going to win. Probably by 14 points. Hope I'm wrong.


A good recent historical analysis.

It certainly was the case that in each of those 2008 three games, one single middle quarter, (whether it was the second or third), killed the Swans.

If Sydney does not repeat a one bad quarter scenerio, they are in with a chance. However, on the Bulldogs' form against Geelong, the Swans will have to play as good a game in Round 10, as the performance in Round 9 against Port Adelaide. Herein, my concern is that Sydney '09 is just not good enough a team to play two great games straight.

On a positive side, the last time the Swans faced a team that were magnificient in defeat against the Cats the week before, was Hawthorn in Round 2. (Remember that fantastic Round one Grand Final replay between the Hawks and Geelong, where Hawthorn almost won at the end, kicking 6 goals to 1 in the final quarter? ) I thought Sydney would have no chance the next week. The Swans proved me wrong.

[connolly]

A good recent historical analysis.

It certainly was the case that in each of those 2008 three games, one single middle quarter, (whether it was the second or third), killed the Swans.

If Sydney does not repeat a one bad quarter scenerio, they are in with a chance. However, on the Bulldogs' form against Geelong, the Swans will have to play as good a game in Round 10, as the performance in Round 9 against Port Adelaide. Herein, my concern is that Sydney '09 is just not good enough a team to play two great games straight.

On a positive side, the last time the Swans faced a team that were magnificient in defeat against the Cats the week before, was Hawthorn in Round 2. (Remember that fantastic Round one Grand Final replay between the Hawks and Geelong, where Hawthorn almost won at the end, kicking 6 goals to 1 in the final quarter? ) I thought Sydney would have no chance the next week. The Swans proved me wrong.

1. The 2009 team is much fitter and fresher than the tired, sore outfit that was out run in the 08 semi.
2. Kennelly was our centre of gravity who provided not just run out of defence but direction. We now know that the Kerry recruit's heart was not at all in it last season as well as playing injured.
3. Our half back line will be quicker and fitter than the line in 08. This will make a difference in our run out of defence. It is critically important to one out the Dogs defenders on Big Beamish and Magic.
4. Our big advantage has to be ruck dominance and the ability of Goodsey to run off the back of the pack and under the Jolly palm. Can he do it against a quick tight tag? He'll be up against a very well informed and strategic Eade defensive plan. Eade knows more about Goodes than any other coach than Roos. Eade never really hit it off with Goodsey and believed he was a flawed player. In the 08 semi Goodes got 10 possessions. If Goodsey can out think the Eade plan, break the tag and run the ball into the corridor consistently - we win. We know he can do it as he carved them up in 2006.
5. If he can't our taggers (Kirk, Jude, Jack) will be under real pressure to smother their very quick midfield.
They beat us in all games last year because we couldn't stop their distribution out of the stoppages. Despite moneybag's confidence that we are quicker this year, if their very fast midfield runs onto the ball into open spaces in numbers - we lose.

[ugg]

Early odds

Bullies 1.55
Swans 2.45

[RaZoRBlad3]

Out of the 3 games last year, did we have both Hall and MickyO playing together in any of them? I seem to recall either one of them or both were missing in all 3 games. If that's the case, hopefully that'll be the difference.

[hammo]

I am concerned about the scheduling of this game. The Swans played on Sunday and have 6 days to prepare while the Dogs have 8 days having played on Friday night. That has to make a big difference particularly on a big ground such as Manuka.

[mcs]

Should be a cracking game and I'm a bit sad that I won't be there for what is always an enjoyable game at Manuka. Just got to watch the Port game and I was very impressed with what I saw.

Its going to be a tough one against the Dogs- I voted for them to win by 10-19, but moreso because whenever I vote for us to win we seem to lose, so hopefully my reverse pyschology will work for once!

We might be a fair way behind the top teams in Hawthorn and St Kilda, but I'm excited by a lot of what I have seen at times this year. We are rebuilding there is no doubt about that, but we are still a competitive outfit and its nice to see!

[top40]

Out of the 3 games last year, did we have both Hall and MickyO playing together in any of them? I seem to recall either one of them or both were missing in all 3 games. If that's the case, hopefully that'll be the difference.


The answer is that Hall and MickyO did not play together in any those three losses. Hall was out suspended in the first game, O'Loughlin was injured in the last two games.

However, they DID play together in five straight games against the Bullies from 2003 to 2007, whereupon the Swans won every game. The only time the Swans lost to the Bulldogs when Hall and MickyO played together was way back in Round 8 2002, ironically one of Rodney Ede's last coaching assignments for the Sydney.

[Wardy]

It will be close - but my heart says that should we hammer the Dogs, the Bombers lose against Geelong (more than likely), the Crows beat the Hawks (its possible) & Brisbane V North could go either way - there is a big possibility, if the planets are in line, that by Late Sunday night - the Swans may be third on the ladder! how good would that be?

[annew]

I am worried about this game too. I was at the game on Sunday and the Swans were fantastic, I actually couldn't believe my eyes in that first quarter - I was in shock! When I watched the replay it wasn't anywhere near as exciting and I began to think that we weren't that great after all and that Port were just dreadful. The difference between being at a live game and watching on TV is huge! Of course we do always seem to draw the most boring commentators, although Sunday's crew are better than Tim Lane & Co, which is not hard to achieve.
Bring on Saturday and let's hope last Sunday was not just a fluke.

[Go Swannies]

It will be close - but my heart says that should we hammer the Dogs, the Bombers lose against Geelong (more than likely), the Crows beat the Hawks (its possible) & Brisbane V North could go either way - there is a big possibility, if the planets are in line, that by Late Sunday night - the Swans may be third on the ladder! how good would that be?

Now that's nice thinking Wardy. Did you see Mike Sheahan asking if the others On the Couch had also thought the Swans would fail. His fallback position is that we won't do much in finals but you wouldn't want to face us. In March I put money with a friend that my Swannies would finish ahead of her Blues at the end of H&A. Everyone else jeered and said I should pay up pre-season. Looking a fair bet now.

I love supporting a team that always gives it a crack. Imagine following the Tigers or Freo. Even the Dees have more heart, just not more talent.

[giant]

They are also going to be without Gilbee and Higgins.

Gilbee playing according to this article:

http://www.realfooty.com.au/articles/2009/05/26/1243103542506.html

Which also includes the startling revelation that:


Gilbee reckons the former Swans - coach Rodney Eade, his assistant Paul Williams, runner John Stevens and matchday statistician Rowan Warfe - now at the Bulldogs can only be an advantage. "I have no doubt it would help," Gilbee said. "Rodney coached there for a while and Paul Williams played in a premiership there not so long ago, and we've got some other guys who have got some Sydney knowledge.

I thought Williams was at Melbourne? Must have moved last year - there's a real little Swans expat community in Melbourne between Dogs and Saints.

Given that they beat us convincly three times last year, I see this as a real litmus test of where we're at with our best team on the park and all in pretty good form. Let's do 'em!

[ScottH]

Gilbee playing according to this article:

http://www.realfooty.com.au/articles/2009/05/26/1243103542506.html

Which also includes the startling revelation that:



I thought Williams was at Melbourne? Must have moved last year - there's a real little Swans expat community in Melbourne between Dogs and Saints.

Given that they beat us convincly three times last year, I see this as a real litmus test of where we're at with our best team on the park and all in pretty good form. Let's do 'em!

Yep, Williams moved at the start of the year to the Dogs.
Dees have Scott West.

[waterfowl]

This Bulldogs game is one of the most even and exciting contests of the year - looking forward to it. If the Swans can maintain that run on style accompanied by solid tackling that they did on the weekend, we're in with a good chance. Swans by 11.

[AnnieH]

Gilbee playing according to this article:

http://www.realfooty.com.au/articles/2009/05/26/1243103542506.html

Which also includes the startling revelation that:



I thought Williams was at Melbourne? Must have moved last year - there's a real little Swans expat community in Melbourne between Dogs and Saints.

Given that they beat us convincly three times last year, I see this as a real litmus test of where we're at with our best team on the park and all in pretty good form. Let's do 'em!

I think they've been too long out to do any "insider-type" damage ... ala Lyons.

[DeadlyAkkuret]

I think they've been too long out to do any "insider-type" damage ... ala Lyons.

Exactly. What's Warfe going to tell 'em? How to negate Peter Filandia?

[Bear]

"Rowan Warfe - now at the Bulldogs can only be an advantage"

Lol. Rowan Warfe. Lol.

[connolly]

"Rowan Warfe - now at the Bulldogs can only be an advantage"

Lol. Rowan Warfe. Lol.

Warfe is one of the Fitzroy generation of coaches - Roos, Lyon, Blakey. Coaches are like race horses. You find the quality from the lineage. In this case Len Smith. Laugh at him at your peril.

[connolly]

I think they've been too long out to do any "insider-type" damage ... ala Lyons.

Eade studies opposition footballers in minute detail. Willo and Warfe know the Bloods engine room, particularly the habits and reflex responses of our players under pressure. This will be like playing an intra-club match.

[Bear]

Warfe is one of the Fitzroy generation of coaches - Roos, Lyon, Blakey. Coaches are like race horses. You find the quality from the lineage. In this case Len Smith. Laugh at him at your peril.

Let me guess, you think he was a superstar player as well...

Of those who played over 50 games for us in the Sydney era, he is a top 5 hack.

[Plugger46]

Let me guess, you think he was a superstar player as well...

Of those who played over 50 games for us in the Sydney era, he is a top 5 hack.

Struggled towards the end of his career, after a few injuries. Thought he was more than useful in his first few years at the club. He was frustrating at times as he did turn it over a bit but plenty of guts. No worldbeater but hack is a tough call in my opinion.

[laughingnome]

Let me guess, you think he was a superstar player as well...


Just throwing it out there that it is very rare for a person to be a champion player and coach. I don't see a correlation between skill level on the park and nous in the Coach's box.

[DeadlyAkkuret]

How would Warfe know anything about our current style/gameplan? When was he a coach for us?

[Jeffers1984]

I miss Willo :frown

What an awesome player to watch at full flight.

[Damien]

Decided to expect the worst and see what happens!

[connolly]

How would Warfe know anything about our current style/gameplan? When was he a coach for us?

Played with Roos at Fitzroy and Sydney and was coached by him. Might know a thing or two about Rooseys approach. I may be wrong but i think he was our runner after he retired?

[DeadlyAkkuret]

Played with Roos at Fitzroy and Sydney and was coached by him. Might know a thing or two about Rooseys approach. I may be wrong but i think he was our runner after he retired?

Well yeah he knows, but I doubt they're chatting over coffee about our tactics. Quite a bit has changed since Warfe had any connection to Sydney.

[DST]

The day and a half extra break could be telling in the end, but balacing that is the Dogs played Geelong in a game that went right down to the wire and they dug deep to come back three times during the game.

We on the other hand had a relatively light afternoon after the first quarter courtesy of the Power.

Not going to be much in this and if we win (along with jagging one against Pies or Crows), top 4 is a possibility which would be a very good return.

DST
:D

[573v30]

I'm hoping the Swans can reverse the current trend experienced last year. We played some good footy against the Dogs in the last 3 encounters but that didn't translate into 4 quarters of good footy per match.

Swans to win by 8 and to have the foot on the pedal a bit longer than the last 3 times.

[smasher]

McVeigh had a cracker last time we played the Doggies at Canberra.If I recall correctly he kicked six goals early and we fell away after that.
We need to play four consistant quarters.

[ScottH]

We've broken the LWLW sequence, and kept the home game win record in tact. This game is technically an away game, but is realistically a home game.

So will we win due to being a "home" game?

[DeadlyAkkuret]

We've broken the LWLW sequence, and kept the home game win record in tact. This game is technically an away game, but is realistically a home game.

So will we win due to being a "home" game?

What?

[Cardinal]

It's definitely my home game. It's going to be nice not to have to travel up the freeway and back for a change.

[Cheer Squad]

Decided to expect the worst and see what happens!

Your expectations were rewarded :frown

[liz]

There was a bloke helping the Dogs warm up before Saturday's game (he was standing at the goalposts collecting balls and feeding them out again) who was the spitting image of Simon Feast. However, tallish bald blokes aren't that uncommon so it could easily have been someone else.

Anyone know if Feast has joined the Swans brigade at the Dogs, or is he still involved somewhere in the SANFL?