Round 12 - Collingwood

[Cheer Squad]

Where's the evidence that we're going to defeat Collingwood this coming Saturday? Where's the improvement going to come from?

Here's the respective team lists the last time we played the Magpies in Round 21 2008 (definite changes to each list are bolded):

Sydney Swans
B: Leo Barry, Craig Bolton, Martin Mattner
HB: Lewis Roberts-Thomson, Ted Richards, Tadhg Kennelly
C: Jared Crouch, Jarrad McVeigh, Craig Bird
HF: Ryan O?Keefe, Heath Grundy, Adam Goodes
F: Amon Buchanan, Barry Hall, Paul Bevan
Foll: Darren Jolly, Brett Kirk, Jude Bolton
I/C: Peter Everitt, Kieren Jack, Jarred Moore, Patrick Veszpremi
EMG: Ryan Brabazon, Luke Brennan, Nic Fosdike
In: Barry, Jack, Veszpremi
Out: Luke Ablett, Nic Fosdike, Nick Malceski

Collingwood
B: Shane Wakelin , Nathan Brown, Tyson Goldsack
HB: Martin Clarke, Nick Maxwell, Harry O?Brien
C: Tarkyn Lockyer, Scott Burns, Alan Toovey
HF: Scott Pendlebury, Travis Cloke, Leon Davis
F: Chris Dawes, Paul Medhurst, John Anthony
Foll: Josh Fraser, Dane Swan, Shane O?Bree
I/C: John McCarthy, Sharrod Wellingham, Chris Bryan, Ryan Cook
EMG: Shannon Cox, Rhyce Shaw, Simon Prestigiacomo
In: Wellingham
Out: Dale Thomas (calf)

This time, we're without Kennelly, Everitt, Brennan, & Fosdike. Leo Barry - and Craig Bolton - gulp! - are described as "test" on the injury list as at June 9. I think Vespremi has been moved off it.

For Collingwood, John McCarthy is out with a hamstring injury. Shane Wakelin and Scott Burns have retired, and of course, Rhyce Shaw now plays for us. Nathan Brown is described as "test" on their injury list.

So where's the match-winning improvement going to come from? Where's the evidence that Roos has a new game plan that Mick Malthouse won't know how to counter? If you look at a graph of our last 10 matches against the Magpies, we're on an unmistakable downward trend that doesn't seem to have bottomed yet.

Collingwood have won their last 6 games against us and have a 4-2 record at Homebush. They're also travelling extremely well, winning 9 out of their last 12 matches on the road. And our defeat in Round 21 last year by 45 points was the worst against them since the early 90s.

I'd love to see us win, and will be hoping like hell that we do, but there's just no evidence for it.

As with Geelong earlier this year, we'll be doing well to cut the margin of the loss. Collingwood by 38. :mad:

[Bas]

As with Geelong earlier this year, we'll be doing well to cut the margin of the loss. Collingwood by 38. :mad:

That's being very pessimistic of you.

I would have had the knuckle draggers by only 30.

[Cheer Squad]

That's being very pessimistic of you.

I would have had the knuckle draggers by only 30.

:rolleyes:

[Yuri H]

I want to be optimistic, but I'm a gloomy Slav. I just hope we don't lose by too much.

Granted, a win would be wonderful; I'd enjoy rubbing it in my Collingwood-supporter-co-worker's face.

[Plugger46]

Hope I'm wrong but I can't see why we'd all of a sudden start beating them. Hopefully the addition of Rhyce Shaw can make some difference.

[connolly]

Where's the evidence that we're going to defeat Collingwood this coming Saturday? Where's the improvement going to come from?

Here's the respective team lists the last time we played the Magpies in Round 21 2008 (definite changes to each list are bolded):

Sydney Swans
B: Leo Barry, Craig Bolton, Martin Mattner
HB: Lewis Roberts-Thomson, Ted Richards, Tadhg Kennelly
C: Jared Crouch, Jarrad McVeigh, Craig Bird
HF: Ryan O?Keefe, Heath Grundy, Adam Goodes
F: Amon Buchanan, Barry Hall, Paul Bevan
Foll: Darren Jolly, Brett Kirk, Jude Bolton
I/C: Peter Everitt, Kieren Jack, Jarred Moore, Patrick Veszpremi
EMG: Ryan Brabazon, Luke Brennan, Nic Fosdike
In: Barry, Jack, Veszpremi
Out: Luke Ablett, Nic Fosdike, Nick Malceski

Collingwood
B: Shane Wakelin , Nathan Brown, Tyson Goldsack
HB: Martin Clarke, Nick Maxwell, Harry O?Brien
C: Tarkyn Lockyer, Scott Burns, Alan Toovey
HF: Scott Pendlebury, Travis Cloke, Leon Davis
F: Chris Dawes, Paul Medhurst, John Anthony
Foll: Josh Fraser, Dane Swan, Shane O?Bree
I/C: John McCarthy, Sharrod Wellingham, Chris Bryan, Ryan Cook
EMG: Shannon Cox, Rhyce Shaw, Simon Prestigiacomo
In: Wellingham
Out: Dale Thomas (calf)


So where's the match-winning improvement going to come from? Where's the evidence that Roos has a new game plan that Mick Malthouse won't know how to counter? If you look at a graph of our last 10 matches against the Magpies, we're on an unmistakable downward trend that doesn't seem to have bottomed yet.

Collingwood have won their last 6 games against us and have a 4-2 record at Homebush. They're also travelling extremely well, winning 9 out of their last 12 matches on the road. And our defeat in Round 21 last year by 45 points was the worst against them since the early 90s.

I'd love to see us win, and will be hoping like hell that we do, but there's just no evidence for it.

As with Geelong earlier this year, we'll be doing well to cut the margin of the loss. Collingwood by 38. :mad:

We should be faster this year with:
Shaw
Thornton
Brabazon
Barlow

for
Crouch (possibly his last game but it should have been last week)
Ablett
Malceski (can't run, can't tackle and can't play- if ever a surgeon should be sued!)
Buchanon (out of form, lost a yard)

The NEW Bloods will win in an upset by 15. The one thing you haven't factored in is that old maggotts internal division. Not a happy camp at the moment. Big questions - will the players play for Mick Outhouse? Does Mr Cranky give a flying toss anymore? Is he off to Richmond? Wheres Eddy?
Some real enthusiasm from the NEWBloods willl work wonders. Blood transfusions can rejuvenate the aging. So i hear. This game can be won or lost in the selection room on Thursday. If the selectors show a bit of imagination and ticker and Roosey plays a modified game plan with more pace across the midfield we have a sniff.

[Hartijon]

"If the selectors show a bit of imagination and ticker and Roosey plays a modified game plan with more pace across the midfield we have a sniff."

When has this ever happened?I predict few changes,Crouch a definate starter and maybe even Ablett back.Game plan the same and "its up to the players". The point about the Pies being divided might be a trump card for us but look what the Lions did to Hawthorn compared to us!We had a huge advantage against them and we blew it. My heart says we can beat them my brain...no way!

[goswannie14]

The usual, Pies by 40 or more points.

[Bas]

We should be faster this year with:
Shaw
Thornton
Brabazon
Barlow

Running around after the opposition doesn't count.

[573v30]

Prepare for some of the most woeful and embarrassing footy the Swans will play this season though the scoreboard won't reflect how badly the Swans go against the Magpies.

Collingwood by 32.

[top40]

I can perfectly understand this Red and White pessimism, particularly as Collingwood just so happen to be in form right now.

That said.....maybe this is the time Sydney FINALLY has a great game against the Pies. Notwithstanding very narrow home victories in 2004 and 2005, (in years where Collingwood finished bottom 4), the reality is that you have to go way way back to Round 6 in 2003 to find the last time the Swans had a good game against Collingwood. That's 9 disappointing games straight.

Surely:
-with the season on the line,
-the Pies feeling perhaps a little overconfident,
-Rhyce Shaw on our side,
-a perfect 2009 Home record,
-the fact that we are due,

SURELY this is the one we will win, and win fairly well.

History tells us that we'll know fairly well how we are placed at half time, (or perhaps even at quarter time.) For the recent record, the half time scores have favoured Collingwood:

2003 R 21: 9-7 (70) to 5-3 (33)
2004 R 13: 7-2 (44) to 6-3 (39)
2006 R 12: 6-7 (43) to 2-10 (22)
2007 R 12: 6-11 (47) to 2-1 (13)
2007 R21: 9-8 (62) to 7-4 (46)
2007 EF: 8-9 (57) to 7-5 (47) (Collingwood led 6 goals to 1 at the first break)
2008 R14: 5-7 (37) to 1-5 (11)
2008: R21: 11-6 (72) to 4-3 (27) (Collingwood led 8 goals to 2 at the first break)

[Jeffers1984]

Yeah the usual story, Pies blow us away, we come back in the last quarter to score meaningless goals to make the margin flatter us.


Yawn*

[10Totti10]

Round 12 casualty list | Daily Telegraph (http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/sport/afl/story/0,27009,25635854-5016140,00.html)

Buchannon in doubt? Bolton 50-50. Tim Schmidt a test? He might play for the ressies this weekend. Hope he does, comes back, plays regularly and becomes our future captain.

[Cant turn right]

I am going with the heart this week not the head, Swans by 15.

[Laurie Nash]

Let's hope they wipe the smiles off their fans, I want to belt that feral who made the "Nick Davis Traitor" sign.

[connolly]

Let's hope they wipe the smiles off their fans, I want to belt that feral who made the "Nick Davis Traitor" sign.

Maintain the rage nashie

[AnnieH]

I'll be happy if they win by just 1 (and maybe a few injuries on their side) ;).

We need the four points.

[Hartijon]

My Boss is an Aussie who supports the Pies.Man he has a field day with me every time they play the Swans! A 1 point victory would be heaven and we have a bottle of Aussie wine it on each time so I am well out of pocket. This time thankfully I am on Holidays but how do i follow the game in Vienna? On the computer I guess.

[Dalai Lama]

is this the the last chance we'll have to beat a team coached by Kristys' dad for a while?

[msb]

is this the the last chance we'll have to beat a team coached by Kristys' dad for a while?

No, play them again in round 21 at the G. I am refusing to watch this game on saturday, I simply cant do it, I cant stand seeing us lose to collingwood. That game late last year at TD was my last straw against them! Ill flick the TV or radio on at around 10pm and see how weve gone, but I aint holding out any hope of a win, especially with C Bolton out!

[staple]

Roos has gone all out to fire up the Swans. The last few times we have played them at ANZ, there has been no run at all. Don't watch the ball if you're going to the game on saturday night, watch 50m all around the ball and see if Swans players are providing any run or just chasing their opponents. Shaw and Goodes will lead from the front, but will the midfield and backline follow suit. If we run, win some clearances, we can beat the pies. If we are static, we lose by the 6 goal average.

Another problem is the LRT syndrome when we play them, every time they go forward they will pass to whoever is on LRT. Last year and the final against them, it was mainly Cloke. This year Anthony is the bigger danger. Who will Bolton play on and who gets to have LRT? Big game for the big man. I hope Grundy plays loose 20m in front of whoever LRT lines up against.

[BigD]

if we win it will be only just (less than 2 goals), but if we lose I think we'll be thrashed (more than 6 goals)

Either way I'll be there screaming myself hoarse as always.:o

[ugg]

Barlow, Smith and Thornton flagged to come in by Roos. Which means that only one of the actually will...

Dale Thomas will be better for rest: Malthouse | The Courier Mail (http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/sport/afl/story/0,27046,25652383-5016169,00.html)

[COBHC]

That means no Daniel O'Keefe then. :(

[ScottH]

Majority Rulz!

Damn, I was wrong again. Now there is a surprise this year.

On another note: This is the first time we have lost 3 in a row since R6, 2005.


R4 H Adelaide 4.2 7.5 9.8 11.13 79 4.3 6.5 10.11 18.12 120 L S.C.G. 30,478 17-Apr-2005
R5 H Melbourne 2.5 3.10 6.12 7.18 60 4.5 6.6 10.10 14.10 94 L S.C.G. 29,099 23-Apr-2005
R6 A West Coast 1.6 4.6 6.9 8.11 59 1.2 7.5 12.10 15.14 104 L Subiaco 39,687 30-Apr-2005

Incidentally, the same year we last beat the Pies.