10am: Beware the Sleeping Swans

[ShockOfHair]

Mark Stevens in the Hun has big wraps for us, if only because of our soft draw in the first part of the season. He tips us to be 10-1 at the halfway point.

He's live blogging at 10am.

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[Plugger1300]

Wasn't too many anti Swans supporters blogging. It was pretty one sided. Would've have liked some harder questions thrown at Mark. Still great to read a positive article in the Sun about us.

Not to sure we will be 10-1 but fingers crossed

[Melbourne_Blood]

Its kind of scary that we are semi expected to be around 10-1, 9-2 by the halfway mark. It makes every game in the first half that much more nerve racking knowing the back half of the year is going to be on paper much much harder for us.

[ShockOfHair]

Wasn't too many anti Swans supporters blogging. It was pretty one sided. Would've have liked some harder questions thrown at Mark. Still great to read a positive article in the Sun about us.

Not to sure we will be 10-1 but fingers crossed

Agree. We don't mind people pumping our tyres, but not that much. We have to watch out for games like this week and against Essendon and St Kilda. We have to put away those teams to stay in the hunt. Second half of the year is much harder BTW with Geelong twice, the Hawks again, Carlton, West Coast and Collingwood.

It's the lack of drama around the Swans which helps make the footy media indifferent to us. We don't have any scandals, we don't tank, our players are as tough as nail and most years we're a lock for the eight - not much to criticise.

[goswannie14]

Here is a link that worked for me.

http://m.news.com.au/AFL/pg/0/fi1009031.htm

[longmile]

I think he's forgotten the Crows as well. With there easy draw there a good chance of them making the 4 as well.

[Dosser]

We are a funny lot, aren't we? We cant stand it when our own people are so negative, but when an 'outsider' pumps up our tyres in the media then we get all nervous and worried. I'm sure there is a name for this psychological condition...

[R-1]

It's called being a Swans fan. Winning easily through complete dominance is not the Sydney way. Every time I think I'm ready to give up on them (the Richmond game last year) they come out with something special and remind me why I love them (the Geelong game). They love to tease and torture us. Really it's a form of abuse.

[DLBIA14]

It's called being a Swans fan. Winning easily through complete dominance is not the Sydney way. Every time I think I'm ready to give up on them (the Richmond game last year) they come out with something special and remind me why I love them (the Geelong game). They love to tease and torture us. Really it's a form of abuse.

QFT

Add in all those heart-stopping games and you start to realise being a Swans supporter is not good for your health.

[Big Al]

511

Photo of 28 year old Swans supporter Ken Coronary.

[goswannie14]

511

Photo of 28 year old Swans supporter Ken Coronary.Yes I really did :rofl:

[ShockOfHair]

Better to fly under the radar than have a target on your back (mixed metaphor alert!!).

Eg, Hawthorn.

[Nich]

I wouldn't bank the Saints/Essendon/Richmond games.

But yes, we should be sitting very sweet half way through the year. If we aren't, we've got a tough slog in front of us in the 2nd half.

[Melbourne_Blood]

I cant remember the last time we were rated more highly by some media people than we were by our own supporters. Its not neccessarily good or bad really ( i do prefer to go under the radar personally), if anything its just Shocking. I do like our chances of 'pushing' the top 4, but to say we're a lock, its a big call.

[Melbourne_Blood]

I'd throw Adelaide in also as certianly not a gimme, though it is at home. They havent really put a foot wrong so far ( granted they have yet to face a stern test.)

[swans_premiers]

Sydney vs West Coast Grand final

[DeadlyAkkuret]

Second half of the year is much harder BTW with Geelong twice, the Hawks again, Carlton, West Coast and Collingwood.

We really need to win at least 3 of those 6 games. West Coast at Subi could be very tough, but it should be an amazing game. The encounters with Geelong and Hawthorn at the SCG need to be wins if we're serious about the top 4, too.

[Melbourne_Blood]

Always have hope against West Coast, our rivalry always produces a close game and close games can go either way. Gelong, at our best, i think we can beat, and even the pies ( we got close last time ) . I think we will struggle against the hawks and Blues again though.

[DLBIA14]

Sydney vs West Coast Grand final

Wouldn't that be fantastic. :) I love playing West Coast and having a non-Victorian final in an era where Vic teams are expected to achieve big things would be hilarious. A proverbial @@@@@@@ you to all the knockers. That being said, I have serious doubts about our credibility when we are such a poor skilled side.

[DeadlyAkkuret]

I unfortunately agree with you M_B. It's hard to believe we had the wood over the Blues only 18 months ago (give or take) and used to beat the Hawks quite regularly.

[The_Jam]

While it is a relatively easy draw for the first half of the year, in my very humble opinion, going 10-1 or 9-2 would be an amazing achievement. I can understand the reasoning of why we should do it: besides Hawthorn, we are current favourites in all the other match-ups.

But where, I think, this reasoning fails, is that winning 10 games you?re favourite for is quite different from winning 1 game you?re favourite. Winning 10 requires fortitude. Winning 10 requires super consistency. Winning 10 requires the type of belief that usually comes from a premiership or three. But if we do pull it off, it will surely herald good-times aplenty.

[WeHaveTheGoodes]

I unfortunately agree with you M_B. It's hard to believe we had the wood over the Blues only 18 months ago (give or take) and used to beat the Hawks quite regularly.

We beat the hawks on a regular basis when they were either rebuilding, tanking or the cusp of their players maturing. The blues..well they were absolute @@@@ for nearly a decade..there good draft picks and one c judd coming of age last year and no suprises that now they beat us.

No coincidence that these teams were low on the ladder during our GF years and those teams tanked. Even bloody collingwood tanked in 2005. Now look at them..hawks the pies and soon the blues will have a flag each.

I don't care if you call me negative but the reality it is..we are a top 6-8 side and i will keep repeating that until the end of the home and away season when we finish 6th.

[DeadlyAkkuret]

We won't know until the end of the year and I don't really want to get into your tank to win argument because I think that's a terrible way to look at things. Melbourne and Richmond are perfect examples.

We'll be top 4 in 2013/2014 imo.

[Melbourne_Blood]

West Coast bottomed out and we didnt, both after similiar periods of success. They are ahead of us, yes, but not by enough to suggest we erred in not going to the bottom to get priority picks. Im happy with our progress, i think we're coming along nicely.

[WeHaveTheGoodes]

We won't know until the end of the year and I don't really want to get into your tank to win argument because I think that's a terrible way to look at things. Melbourne and Richmond are perfect examples.

We'll be top 4 in 2013/2014 imo.

richmond and Melbourne have bigger problems. Culture..nothing could make these clubs good again unless they do a massive clean out and improve the culture.

Teams who tanked but have a healthy culture are now reaping the rewards.

[Melbourne_Blood]

In the case of Collingwood, 5 years later. In the case of Carlton, they tanked ( or were just plain @@@@house) in early 2000's didnt they? and they've still yet to reap even a top 4 finish. Our last flag was 7 years ago, i beleive our next one could be as close as a year or two away. Nothing wrong with that.

[WeHaveTheGoodes]

In the case of Collingwood, 5 years later. In the case of Carlton, they tanked ( or were just plain @@@@house) in early 2000's didnt they? and they've still yet to reap even a top 4 finish. Our last flag was 7 years ago, i beleive our next one could be as close as a year or two away. Nothing wrong with that.

They were crap from 2003-2008. Collingwood have beaten us since 2005 and have won a flag and have dominated one season with only 2 loses in those 5 years. It's not like they umm havent done anything since they tanked in 2005.

Carlton are on the verge as much as we all hate to admit it.

Us? Yeah sure we will be up there for the next 5 years just like we have for the past decade.

[Melbourne_Blood]

So if i am to understand you correctly, we should resort to being woeful for a good 4-5 years so we can then be on the 'verge' of a sustained period of success? Despite the fact we are, IMO, almost on the verge of one anyway ?

[WeHaveTheGoodes]

I just love the optimism. A flag in 1 or 2 years?

Really?

hahahaha

anyway i'll let you all dream..to bad when reality hits it bloody hurts!

[DeadlyAkkuret]

So we can't predict flags or be optimistic about our future but you can be a pessimist and it's just a fact we need to accept?

The highest Carlton have finished since they tanked is 5th and our highest finish since 2006 is....yep, 5th. They needed to trade in an absolute gun in Judd to do so, we're not a big Victorian club who will get many superstars asking to be traded to us.

We've made two GF's since 2000 and really could have won both. Carlton haven't made one GF in that time and the Hawks have only made one. The most successful team over the same period has been the Cats and I can't remember when they last "won" a spoon.

So forgive me if I think the tanking theory is a big load of crap and forgive me for not worshipping teams like Carlton for achieving zilch.

[Melbourne_Blood]

IMO 1-2 years is not unachievable. Not by a long stretch. Not sure what team your watching but the one I see has a lot of potential and a lot of spirit. By the wayCarlton may be on the 'verge', but so were the Saints for a few years and they never quite got there . Being up there doesn't guarantee you'll get there. I understand to an extent some of your misgivings about our side but your complete lack of faith in our ability to move up the ladder is quite confusing.

[Dosser]

I love our team and am excited every time they take to the field. However, I think 1-2 years is a bit soon for a real tilt. We need to address our fade-outs and our skill level but I think that we have a good group who will keep us excited and entertained in the meantime.

[erica]

Anything is possible, depending on injuries - ours and theirs. Situations change so quickly in footy, which is why I don't buy into predictions.

[WeHaveTheGoodes]

I love our team and am excited every time they take to the field. However, I think 1-2 years is a bit soon for a real tilt. We need to address our fade-outs and our skill level but I think that we have a good group who will keep us excited and entertained in the meantime.

Most realistic reply so far.

[WeHaveTheGoodes]

So we can't predict flags or be optimistic about our future but you can be a pessimist and it's just a fact we need to accept?

The highest Carlton have finished since they tanked is 5th and our highest finish since 2006 is....yep, 5th. They needed to trade in an absolute gun in Judd to do so, we're not a big Victorian club who will get many superstars asking to be traded to us.

We've made two GF's since 2000 and really could have won both. Carlton haven't made one GF in that time and the Hawks have only made one. The most successful team over the same period has been the Cats and I can't remember when they last "won" a spoon.

So forgive me if I think the tanking theory is a big load of crap and forgive me for not worshipping teams like Carlton for achieving zilch.

ok

[jono2707]

For someone who rekons they have a clue, you don't. Laughable post really.

I thought we had gotten past the personal attacks as per the recently posted thread reminding all of us about the rules of using this great forum.....

[WeHaveTheGoodes]

wotyatalkingboutwillis?

[Melbourne_Blood]

Im not saying i have my heart set on a flag in 1-2 years, what i am saying is at best, i think 1-2 years is achievable. Sides on the up have been known to "pinch" flags so to speak. Hawthorn in '08 werent expected to be premiers, more on there way to that title . The same could be argued for the young Pies side of 2010. Im not saying it will happen, but i am saying i think its a bit rich for someone to sit there and say that it definitely wont. You dont know how good Sam Reid will be by the end of this season, let alone 2013-14. Same can be said of Jack, Kennedy, Rohan, Jetta, Hanners, AJ, Mummy, Mitchell, Parker,Bird. Throw in Lockyer, Lamb, Armstrong, TDL, and Cunningham running around in the ressies. Who knows how good they can be? Considering only 2 of those are first round draft picks though, and one of those top ten, i guess there mostly duds...Scrap the list, to the bottom we go for the next 8 years. Swans for premiers in 2022.

[mcs]

I just love the optimism. A flag in 1 or 2 years?

Really?

hahahaha

anyway i'll let you all dream..to bad when reality hits it bloody hurts!

As I said in another thread, if you don't like to dream about what might happen, then perhaps you should become a benevolent AFL supporter... just support the league, not a team in particular. Dreaming is one of the great parts of being a supporter of any team in any sporting environment - but perhaps you may take more satisfaction from being the one that says 'told you so'? Whatever floats your boat really!

I'll continue to dream though... for if you don't dream, then dreams can't come true :smile:

Believe....

[Beerman]

I think the last seven games of 2010 sums up my opinion of the swans. We are a team who can expect to finish no better than 7th or 8th and possibly worse, but who somehow manage to win enough games to finish 5th!

My theory is that we are low on skills and (traditionally) on pace but we are very good at contested possession. We give the ball away a lot, but we put up a darn good fight to win it back and that makes games close and a close game can go either way.

As far as winning a flag goes, I think Michael Voss said it best - even for the best teams, to win a flag means that a lot of things have to go right. Injuries, draw, venues, weather, the other teams you meet in the finals etc. Even the best teams can't be sure of winning a flag, and anyone in the top four is a chance.

I still think we're a little way off the top 4 but I'm starting to think we might finish 5th or 6th in the next couple of years, which means we will probably finish 3rd or 4th!

[GongSwan]

We're as much a chance as anyone, a good run with injury and a stable team, learning to play as a unit, in 2005 we had a couple of champions in the side, this year we have a couple of champs, what we need is a champion team, one that plays consistent 4 qtr footy and is hard at the ball. We got most of that right now, and I reckon on our best day we can beat anyone, ask Geelong

[WeHaveTheGoodes]

In 2005 there really wasnt an outstanding two or three teams like there have been in the past few seasons. 2005 was special but really we wernt the most talented side to win a flag. But i guess we all know that.

To win the flag atm you need so many variables to go your way, as it always has been, BUT more than ever before skill and clean use of the ball is a priority.

[Xie Shan]

The thought of facing Carlton in a grand final makes me feel quite ill... it would be almost unbearable if we lost to them after they have spent the best part of a decade in the doldrums...

[mcs]

In 2005 there really wasnt an outstanding two or three teams like there have been in the past few seasons. 2005 was special but really we wernt the most talented side to win a flag. But i guess we all know that.

To win the flag atm you need so many variables to go your way, as it always has been, BUT more than ever before skill and clean use of the ball is a priority.

Wet Toast and Adelaide were pretty damn good though - Wet Toast won 17 games in both years, and Adelaide 17 and 16 games. Not quite in the same league as the dominant teams like Geelong and more recently Collingwood, but I think they were clearly the two outstanding teams 'as such' over 2005 and 2006.

You are spot on about skill and clean use of the ball... and that is the area we must improve most on if we are to work our way up the ladder.

[sharp9]

Here's the thing about winning flags....and you can go right back to Carlton 1995 (the first year I watched footy) - EVERY team which wins a premiership takes a massive leap up at some point from good team to "Champ" and there is often no particular rhyme or reason. Why did Swans 2002 suddenly go to contenders? Hawthorn '05 were a joke (remember the line in the sand and the huge "Mummy's Boys" headlines that included mugshots of players who were too weak to win anything? - Bateman, Osborne, Ladson among them).
WC 2010 suddenly took the leap - there's no paricular reason why....they just got better
Collingwood 2009 suddenly stepped over to the other side.
Will the Swans 2012 become the latest side to leap into contention? Probably not - but they MIGHT! We have a some top players and a crop of REALLY promising youngsters, some of whom COULD become as good as Cloke, Buddy, Swan, Bartel, Mitchell, Scarlett and other premiership players.

Or will it be Adelaide? Or Fremantle? History shows somebody WILL step up "unexpectedly" - they always do. Most importantly nobody knows it is going to happen before it happens. (Well, OK lots of people have been predicting Carlton would be coming....but they have been saying that for around four years now....and Carlton have not even made a prelim, remember!!!!! Four years ago their membership campaign was "They know we're coming".....yeah, right)

BTW I am getting all this optimism out this week...before we lose to Port and my life sucks again :rolleyes:

[R-1]

Well you never know, maybe Port will be the sudden contenders. :p

[The_Jam]

To add to sharp9?s point, dramatic and quick improvement can be seen in individual performances all the time. And some of these are very significant; Jude Bolton, while very reliable, played like an absolute superstar for the first few rounds last year and Teddy went from fringe-play to keystone-of-the-defense very quickly as well.

These variations are different from natural improvement. Jetta?s recent success, for example, seems to be the product of improved fitness and a stated effort to teach him defense. We have a few, very good young players that we can expect this type of improvement from.

But to win a flag we will need a few older players to bust out something special. Unlike sharp9 I don?t think this type of improvement has no rhyme or reason. Variation in performance is the lot of humans (just ask my girlfriend). Good club culture, well drilled structures, etc increase the chances of those special sustained performances. And no one could doubt our culture.

That being said, as with almost all premiers, in any given year, it is more likely that we won?t win the big one, then win it.

[swans_premiers]

I think everyone here has been reading too many fairytales.

It's utterly ridiculous that a team that has finished 5th and 6th in the last two years can improve one or two positions and challenge for a flag.:rolleyes:

[sharp9]

:adore
I think everyone here has been reading too many fairytales.

It's utterly ridiculous that a team that has finished 5th and 6th in the last two years can improve one or two positions and challenge for a flag.:rolleyes::adore

[Primmy]

I think everyone here has been reading too many fairytales.

It's utterly ridiculous that a team that has finished 5th and 6th in the last two years can improve one or two positions and challenge for a flag.:rolleyes::rofl

[longmile]

I'm predicting Collingwood not to make the four this year due to there harsh draw. So fair early in the season they are looking nowhere near the prowess of there previous two years.

Which we can all be thankful for.

[Velour&Ruffles]

There is a saying I have come up with to encapsulate the thoughts on this thread. It is very profound and when you read it I am sure you will be impressed by its profundity too. You may use it at appropriate junctures in your life so long as you attribute it to me. This observation, which is my own, and which I devised without input from others, and which is entirely original, goes as follows. Here it is:

"Football is a funny old game. We're not without a chance."

Extrapolating from that generalisation, I guess what I'm trying to say is that football is a funny old game and that we are not without a chance in season 2012.

[Ratna]

I think we can win the flag this year although it is unlikely. Chances will improve over the next few years with development and a good run with injuries.

I KNOW, however, that we will send out 22 players every week to play to there potential. No tanking bull****.

I love watching Sydney and if they keep this strategy of putting 22 players on the ground giving their all I will continue to love it until such time that I am planted in the ground.

I believe in the bloods culture even as an evolving thing.

I would love to know what Kirky, Jude, Leo, LRT, Paul Kelly etc. would think of a tanking policy at the Swans.

[Beerman]

I'm predicting Collingwood not to make the four this year due to there harsh draw. So fair early in the season they are looking nowhere near the prowess of there previous two years.

Which we can all be thankful for.

They also have a mass of injuries, particularly after last night. Maybe, is it possible? That this might be, you know, the year that....

I won't say any more because of the risk of invoking a mighty curse on the club for the next 10 years, but I think you know what I'm talking about.

[aardvark]

They also have a mass of injuries, particularly after last night. Maybe, is it possible? That this might be, you know, the year that....

I won't say any more because of the risk of invoking a mighty curse on the club for the next 10 years, but I think you know what I'm talking about.


Wouldn't it be SWEET !!!:smile:

[liz]

They also have a mass of injuries, particularly after last night. Maybe, is it possible? That this might be, you know, the year that....

I won't say any more because of the risk of invoking a mighty curse on the club for the next 10 years, but I think you know what I'm talking about.

Don't even think it...

[wolftone57]

It's called being a Swans fan. Winning easily through complete dominance is not the Sydney way. Every time I think I'm ready to give up on them (the Richmond game last year) they come out with something special and remind me why I love them (the Geelong game). They love to tease and torture us. Really it's a form of abuse.

I think it goes back to going through several seasons with the most wins topping the ladder and either not making the GF or being beaten in said final. Swans fans still remembered how their team was pumped up as flag favourites and never even made it. A positive media always makes a Swans fan nervous.

[robamiee]

considering last nights Pies effort we have a real chance against them.
the Hawks and the Blues i think will be in the GF..
hard to know where the toasters are, they haven't played anyone yet...Bulldogs on the down and the demons well enough said there....

the biggest thign for us is winning games that we should win, and laso putting teams away, we dont need to play finals footy just yet that will come in the 2nd half of the year..

and FFS get plugger or someone down there helping Reid with his kicking

[wolftone57]

I think the last seven games of 2010 sums up my opinion of the swans. We are a team who can expect to finish no better than 7th or 8th and possibly worse, but who somehow manage to win enough games to finish 5th!

My theory is that we are low on skills and (traditionally) on pace but we are very good at contested possession. We give the ball away a lot, but we put up a darn good fight to win it back and that makes games close and a close game can go either way.

As far as winning a flag goes, I think Michael Voss said it best - even for the best teams, to win a flag means that a lot of things have to go right. Injuries, draw, venues, weather, the other teams you meet in the finals etc. Even the best teams can't be sure of winning a flag, and anyone in the top four is a chance.

I still think we're a little way off the top 4 but I'm starting to think we might finish 5th or 6th in the next couple of years, which means we will probably finish 3rd or 4th!

I don't agree with the lack of skills and pace comment. We have deliberately drafted skilled players who knoe how to win the hard ball. What Joey does every week is incredibly skillful. The same with Lukie, Kieren, Goodsie, Rohan, Sam, Hannas, Jetts and the list goes on. I think in reality other than a few glaring examples, mainly due to headspace, we are a pretty skillful unit. We can only get better with Mitch, JL, TDL, Lambchop, Harry etc coming in as they are all highly skilled players. Top ten draft picks don't guarantee a premiership or that a player is going to be a star. Goodsie was taken 43, Mickie O was a low pick and we have always done well with highly skilled players taken low in the draft.

Don't think we haven't got pace and skill because it is there.

[wolftone57]

considering last nights Pies effort we have a real chance against them.
the Hawks and the Blues i think will be in the GF..
hard to know where the toasters are, they haven't played anyone yet...Bulldogs on the down and the demons well enough said there....

the biggest thign for us is winning games that we should win, and laso putting teams away, we dont need to play finals footy just yet that will come in the 2nd half of the year..

and FFS get plugger or someone down there helping Reid with his kicking

I thought Plugger made his allegiances very clear when inducted into the Saints hall of fame. The Blues were really good last night and Pies were torn apart. If you pressure Pies they make mistakes and if you fill the corridor they are stuffed. They like to take the ball wide and then centre once in the Forward line and if you shut down that option they start to make blues plus thay are forced to have all their shots at goal from the boundary.

We have the best solution for Sam right here coaching at the academy. Yes Nick Davis, just send Sam to Nick every day for a month and I'll bet his goal kicking improves markedly. Funnily enough his field kicking is almost perfect so it is more to do with the head than pure technique. The head rules how you use the ball and if the are nerves involved then the technique stuffs up.

[Beerman]

I'll agree with you on the pace comment. I said "traditionally" in reference to the days when we had LRT and Leo Barry trying to run the ball out of defence (*shudder*). Since then we've had an injection of pace with the introduction of players like Shaw, Rohan, Jetta etc. I think we're generally quick enough now although carlton's pace has me quite frightened of meeting them.

I'll suspend judgement on the skill issue for now. The AFL site has us 13th in the comp this year for disposal effectiveness and 8-10th for clangers. Last year we were 16th in effectiveness and 10th for clangers. If we can fix this, I think it is the final piece in the puzzle to take us to the top 4 and premiership contention. I'm very happy to see guys like Mal kicking the ball so well this year because it makes the difference. I also loved Sam Reid's pin-point pass out of half-back on the wing last week - forget who it was to, but those kind of kicks make a huge difference to how the ball comes into our forward line, which has been a big problem for us.