Draft bombs

[Dosser]

OK, because it has been 11 days since our last game, I have needed a footy fix so was taking a look through the last few pre-season drafts. They always make interesting reading, and it took until 2008 before I came across our first real failure.

At pick 12, we chose Lewis Johnston (currently played 3 AFL games) and at pick 30 we took Dan Hannebery (what a steal!). However, some of the names that were chosen in between those picks are:
Ryan Schoenmakers (64 games)
Luke Shuey (63)
Hayden Ballantyne (75)
Jackson Trengrove (66)
David Zaharakis (78)
Nick Suban (73)
Jack Redden (87)
Sam Wright (63)
Dayne Beams (83)

oh, what could have been...

[Mr Magoo]

Is Johnston still on Adelaides list ?

[R-1]

He fractured a leg bone in the SANFL, the same weekend Tex went down I think.

[undy]

Is Johnston still on Adelaides list ?

Yep, he was due to step into Tex's shoes when the giant mullet went down but got injured himself before he could, poor kid.

[liz]

This place would have gone into meltdown if the club had used it's first two picks both on mids in that draft. We needed some good quality talls, especially forwards, to groom to take over from Hall and Micky O. So if the first pick had been used on a Beams or Shuey or similar, we probably wouldn't have Hanners on the list. Trengove or Schoenmakers are the only two half decent talls on that list, but not convinced either would make our "best" defense any better than it currently is.

[Swansongster]

This place would have gone into meltdown if the club had used it's first two picks both on mids in that draft. We needed some good quality talls, especially forwards, to groom to take over from Hall and Micky O. So if the first pick had been used on a Beams or Shuey or similar, we probably wouldn't have Hanners on the list. Trengove or Schoenmakers are the only two half decent talls on that list, but not convinced either would make our "best" defense any better than it currently is.

Thanks Liz for some intelligent analysis (and thanks Doss for some interesting research). I think you are right (Liz).

Trengove and Schoemakers would have been good to have on our list instead of LJ but missing out on Hanners would have been unbearable.

You have to put that one down - once again - to great list management and draft execution. Roosy had the masters' eye on Hanners and they probably knew exactly when to step in and grab him but you could argue that they missed the mark by going for LJ at first call.

- - - Updated - - -


This place would have gone into meltdown if the club had used it's first two picks both on mids in that draft. We needed some good quality talls, especially forwards, to groom to take over from Hall and Micky O. So if the first pick had been used on a Beams or Shuey or similar, we probably wouldn't have Hanners on the list. Trengove or Schoenmakers are the only two half decent talls on that list, but not convinced either would make our "best" defense any better than it currently is.

P.S. - I would imagine there are a few discussions on other fan sites that curse their list managers for not taking our only DH.

[Dosser]

This place would have gone into meltdown if the club had used it's first two picks both on mids in that draft. We needed some good quality talls, especially forwards, to groom to take over from Hall and Micky O. So if the first pick had been used on a Beams or Shuey or similar, we probably wouldn't have Hanners on the list. Trengove or Schoenmakers are the only two half decent talls on that list, but not convinced either would make our "best" defense any better than it currently is.

Campbell Heath was taken at 61 that year, so I guess it adds to your argument. However, the previous year we took Veszpremi, Meredith and Bird, so we must have been looking for mids or forward flankers. A couple of those names would have fit in well.

[stellation]

LJ looked to be the right pick at the time.

[RogueSwan]

Not sure, but didn't we have some sort of "academy" type arrangement that allowed us to get Hanners relatively cheap.

[ugg]

2008 AFL Draft Round 2


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NiT3LzqBC6E

From about 5:35

You can see the Swans' group were in deep discussion for about a minute (other picks just before then only took a few seconds) after Collingwood picked Beams at pick 29 before picking Hannebery at pick 30, so we must have been keen on Beams before Collingwood jumped in before us.

[Dosser]

2008 AFL Draft Round 2


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NiT3LzqBC6E

From about 5:35

You can see the Swans' group were in deep discussion for about a minute (other picks just before then only took a few seconds) after Collingwood picked Beams at pick 29 before picking Hannebery at pick 30, so we must have been keen on Beams before Collingwood jumped in before us.

Thanks Ugg, this is why I love this site :smile:

[Ludwig]

Schoenmakers and Trengrove obviously would have been better picks than LJ. Both would have done better at the Swans than at their own respective clubs, because at both the Hawks and the Power they were given too great a responsibility too early on. Compare this to AJ who flourished as a 3rd tall. As has been stated, we were looking for a KPF and not a defender at the time. Schoenmakers has played forward at times, but not sure about Trengrove. In any case, a KPP was the right choice at the time. We just got the wrong one. Hanners would have been picked anyway, so long as we went for a tall at pick 12. As good as Beams has been, I am happier with Hanners. He's been fantastic.

[Mr Magoo]

I remember seeing LJ play at the state carnival leading up to the draft for South Australia. He was a very good junior key position forward and I thought an excellent choice when we got him but its amazing how things work out.

Just shows how difficult it is to make it at the highest level.

[Doctor]

We were all pretty enthusiastic about him at the time he was drafted too. It does show that despite how good our list management has been for the most part, even we are not immune to drafts or trades that don't work out. I think we as a club have been much quicker than most other clubs to realise that if we have a system that is lifted straight from the American one, that trading as well as drafting is the key to staying competitive. We are now lucky that we are a desirable club to come to in the free agency era as it's going to be harder for bottom clubs to make headway in the future (Gold Coast & GWS aside as they have talent to trade).

[caj23]

Reckon Dan O'Keefe was the true definition of a draft bomb. Overreached with a first round pick in the superdraft for a player that never looked like he was going to make it. Interesting to note that one K Tippett was picked up approx 16 selections later!

As others have noted, LJ was rated highly and a KPF was required at the time

[Primmy]

If I remember correctly, Hanners wasn't even on the recruiting radar. Roosey saw him play school footy and set a watch on him. Pounced before the other clubs knew what was in the wind and we got him while he was still at school.

[Dosser]

Reckon Dan O'Keefe was the true definition of a draft bomb. Overreached with a first round pick in the superdraft for a player that never looked like he was going to make it. Interesting to note that one K Tippett was picked up approx 16 selections later!

As others have noted, LJ was rated highly and a KPF was required at the time

Does anyone know where Dan O'Keefe is now?

[caj23]

Does anyone know where Dan O'Keefe is now?

Playing golf now apparently - which makes our selection look even worse!!

[Scottee]

For some reason I remember looking at our options in that draft very closely. We definitely needed a Key Forward at the time and there were several good ones on offer including Trengrove, Schoenmakers, LJ and McKernan. Having watched the championships closely I liked the look of Shoenmakers because he was younger and had more potential to grow than LJ, he was also the one that was delivering the ball beautifully to LJ on a regular basis. I though that he would be a "Shoe-in"

[wedge.maverick]

For some reason I remember looking at our options in that draft very closely. We definitely needed a Key Forward at the time and there were several good ones on offer including Trengrove, Schoenmakers, LJ and McKernan. Having watched the championships closely I liked the look of Shoenmakers because he was younger and had more potential to grow than LJ, he was also the one that was delivering the ball beautifully to LJ on a regular basis. I though that he would be a "Shoe-in"

LJ was the younger one (1991 birth-Schoenmakers 1990), Scottee. I would have thought we went for him on that same reasoning you gave. They were the 2 key forwards for SA that year and were both very good players.
I think that draft year was the last one for 17 year olds. hence we went for 2 of them with our first 2 picks.

As for Hannebery he was always on the radar it was just a matter of where he went.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Theres probably a parrallel universe somewhere where we did draft Sho-ey instead of LJ . . . . . . . and the posters on the parallel version of RWO are at this very moment bemoaning the way we wasted a choice on Sho-ey who was clearly obsessed with his mother. Keen viewers of under age football KNEW he was going to run back home after 2 seasons at the Swans, long before the unfortunate incident in that public lavatory.

[Scottee]

LJ was the younger one (1991 birth-Schoenmakers 1990), Scottee. I would have thought we went for him on that same reasoning you gave. They were the 2 key forwards for SA that year and were both very good players.
I think that draft year was the last one for 17 year olds. hence we went for 2 of them with our first 2 picks.

As for Hannebery he was always on the radar it was just a matter of where he went.

Thanks for the correction wedgy, however my reason for favoring Schoenmkaers was the fact that he came from a parallel universe where younger is older.

[DeadlyAkkuret]

Towers.

[caj23]

Towers.

Haha

Still to early to call at this stage DA but I agree that it's disappointing that a mature age recruit presumably bought in for an immediate impact has failed to show much at NEAFL level even.

In contrast the Pies picked up Sam Dwyer and Kyle Martin in the rookie draft and they have both looked good at senior level

[aardvark]

Towers.

DUD! Seeing how White might finally be coming good Towers is officially my new whipping boy!

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Still to early to call at this stage DA but I agree that it's disappointing that a mature age recruit presumably bought in for an immediate impact has failed to show much at NEAFL level even.
His form has been very patchy in the 2's, every now and then he exhibits a touch of the speed we all heard about, and his excellent leap . . . . but no he hasn't set the ressie watchers hearts aflame. First time we saw him (me and mrs R'n'R), we rechecked the number because his physical development wasn't what we'd come to expect from a 22 year old.

[SimonH]

I'll see your Towers and raise you a Dane Rampe, Brandon Jack and Xavier Richards regarding our performance in the 2012 drafts. Even if Towers never improves (and without having seen him, there's no reason why he shouldn't? even if he merely gets back to 2012 form?because you have to go alright to make the VFL team of the year), on very very early indications the net result has been a big win for our list.

But drafting is very much a marathon not a sprint, and even more so for talls. LJ was looking increasingly assured on the park and ready to take the next step up and establish himself at AFL level, prior to his injury. White is probably in career-best form 6.5 years after he arrived at the joint; Justin Westhoff (turning our attention to our opponents this weekend) has had what must be statistically his best year by a mile, 6 years after debuting, and after looking like a plodder who wouldn't get a game in top-8 sides for many of the intervening years. There are plenty of similar examples with big guys; including one T Richards, who was hardly a discard? being traded for a first round draft pick which got the Swans plenty of criticism at the time for having overpaid? but at the age of 23 he still hadn't established himself as more than a fringe AFL selection. Plus he didn't hit his absolute best until the age of 29!

Once you do your due diligence, interviews, weigh up character, strengths & weaknesses, potential to improve etc etc, the draft still remains a crapshoot to some extent. To actually claim that a club got a selection 'wrong', you need to show that it wasn't the right call based on what was known (or realistically knowable) at the time the selection was made. To say that a particular selection in 2008 was wrong based on what is known in 2013, is about as helpful as waiting until the dice has already been rolled and then berating the losing punters with 'you shoulda bet on 3? it was obviously always going to be 3!'

[Dosser]

I'll see your Towers and raise you a Dane Rampe, Brandon Jack and Xavier Richards regarding our performance in the 2012 drafts. Even if Towers never improves (and without having seen him, there's no reason why he shouldn't? even if he merely gets back to 2012 form?because you have to go alright to make the VFL team of the year), on very very early indications the net result has been a big win for our list.

But drafting is very much a marathon not a sprint, and even more so for talls. LJ was looking increasingly assured on the park and ready to take the next step up and establish himself at AFL level, prior to his injury. White is probably in career-best form 6.5 years after he arrived at the joint; Justin Westhoff (turning our attention to our opponents this weekend) has had what must be statistically his best year by a mile, 6 years after debuting, and after looking like a plodder who wouldn't get a game in top-8 sides for many of the intervening years. There are plenty of similar examples with big guys; including one T Richards, who was hardly a discard? being traded for a first round draft pick which got the Swans plenty of criticism at the time for having overpaid? but at the age of 23 he still hadn't established himself as more than a fringe AFL selection. Plus he didn't hit his absolute best until the age of 29!

Once you do your due diligence, interviews, weigh up character, strengths & weaknesses, potential to improve etc etc, the draft still remains a crapshoot to some extent. To actually claim that a club got a selection 'wrong', you need to show that it wasn't the right call based on what was known (or realistically knowable) at the time the selection was made. To say that a particular selection in 2008 was wrong based on what is known in 2013, is about as helpful as waiting until the dice has already been rolled and then berating the losing punters with 'you shoulda bet on 3? it was obviously always going to be 3!'

Sure, but if you take away our prerogative to judge with the gift of hindsight then this whole site will lose its reason for existence and we will all have to lead somewhat normal lives again.

[dimelb]

Sure, but if you take away our prerogative to judge with the gift of hindsight then this whole site will lose its reason for existence and we will all have to lead somewhat normal lives again.

:D

[DeadlyAkkuret]

I'll see your Towers and raise you a Dane Rampe, Brandon Jack and Xavier Richards regarding our performance in the 2012 drafts. Even if Towers never improves (and without having seen him, there's no reason why he shouldn't? even if he merely gets back to 2012 form?because you have to go alright to make the VFL team of the year), on very very early indications the net result has been a big win for our list.

But drafting is very much a marathon not a sprint, and even more so for talls. LJ was looking increasingly assured on the park and ready to take the next step up and establish himself at AFL level, prior to his injury. White is probably in career-best form 6.5 years after he arrived at the joint; Justin Westhoff (turning our attention to our opponents this weekend) has had what must be statistically his best year by a mile, 6 years after debuting, and after looking like a plodder who wouldn't get a game in top-8 sides for many of the intervening years. There are plenty of similar examples with big guys; including one T Richards, who was hardly a discard? being traded for a first round draft pick which got the Swans plenty of criticism at the time for having overpaid? but at the age of 23 he still hadn't established himself as more than a fringe AFL selection. Plus he didn't hit his absolute best until the age of 29!

Once you do your due diligence, interviews, weigh up character, strengths & weaknesses, potential to improve etc etc, the draft still remains a crapshoot to some extent. To actually claim that a club got a selection 'wrong', you need to show that it wasn't the right call based on what was known (or realistically knowable) at the time the selection was made. To say that a particular selection in 2008 was wrong based on what is known in 2013, is about as helpful as waiting until the dice has already been rolled and then berating the losing punters with 'you shoulda bet on 3? it was obviously always going to be 3!'

I knew you'd say that.

[Ludwig]

1. Lockyer was taken at pick 43 and looked a steal that late in the draft as he was expected to go much higher. We should remember that Lamb didn't start showing something until the back half of his second year.

2. Towers was in the Swans sights for some time. He seems to have the skills and athleticism, but not the consistency at this point. I think we took him because we felt he had a lot of development left in him. Although he's 23, he's had a delayed start to his career and we should think of him more as a 19 year old. Way too soon to pass judgment on him.