The run home

[ShockOfHair]

Here's the run home for the top four teams. The other teams aren't a realistic chance, although the Cats and North could do some damage.

It most likely gets down to the two games each play against the other top three. It's a relatively friendly draw for the Swans. That means a) a good chance of a home final and b) a lot more Swans conspiracy palava.

We play Hawks in Round 18 at the G and Port in Round 20 in Adelaide. Those are the only top eight sides in our draw, though technically, Essendon, Carlton AND the Tigers all finished in the eight last year.

Six of the Hawks' last nine games are against top sides, plus the Crows. See b) above.

(Brackets = number of games against top 8 sides)

Port 44 148.5 (4)
Hawks 40 145.7 (6)
Swans 40 135.4 (2)
Freo 36 134.2 (3)

Cats 36 106.4
Cwd 32 113.6
North 32 111.1
Suns 32 105.8

PORT: 4 Crows (AO), Ess (AO), Tigers (ES), Mel (AO), Col (MCG), Swans (AO), Suns (MS), Car (AO), Dockers (PS)

HAWKS: 6 Suns (AS), North (ES), Crows (AO), Swans (MCG), Bulldogs (AU), Mel (MCG), Freo (PS), Cats (MCG), Cwd (MCG)

SWANS:2 GWS (SCG), Eagles (PS), Carl (SCG), Haw (MCG), Ess (SCG), Port (AO), Saints (SCG), Bulldogs (ES), Tigers (ANZ)

FREO: 3Eagles (PS), Mel (TIO), Giants (PS), Saints (ES), Car (ES), Cats (SS), Haw (PS), Lions (G), Port (PS)

[DK_]

Looks like the Swans' fate is in their own hands. Beat Port and Hawks (and don't drop a nothing game) and a top 2 finish is almost assured. Lose one or both and we likely won't make it.

Having said that, there are always unexpected results which throw these sort if predictions into disarray.

[0918330512]

Looks like the Swans' fate is in their own hands. Beat Port and Hawks (and don't drop a nothing game) and a top 2 finish is almost assured. Lose one or both and we likely won't make it.

Having said that, there are always unexpected results which throw these sort if predictions into disarray.

Take 3 of our first 4 games? No game is a certainty

[Ampersand]

Assuming we drop 2 games that will put us on 68 points at the end of the regular season which would have put us third last year. It's a plus that we're playing the two teams above us as we'll be likely have to face one of them in the first week of the finals.

[Doctor]

Win 'em all and we're minor premiers.

[Melb Blood Bro]

I think we have an almost perfect run home. Most of our games are against teams out of the eight and the two teams we play within the eight are our major threats; Port and Hawks which will give us a great chance to test ourselves against them. Unlike previous years, it would be nice to be able to rest a couple of our tired players prior to the finals.

[Doctor]

Through necessity rather than design we are getting to rest Tippett, Hannebery, Shaw and McGlynn. Hopefully that helps come September. It will for Hanners at the very least I'd say.

[mcs]

I think, assuming (a big assumption I know) that other results go as expected, we will finish top 2 if we beat either the Hawks or Port. Win both and we might finish minor premiers, lose both and we are likely to finish 3rd or 4th.


To be honest, this week's game probably worries me more than most out of the 'should wins'. Anything near our best, and we should win comfortably. But mummy will dominate the ruck, and our recent couple of performances have been not so convincing. Without Hanners there, I expect a tightish tussle, but hopefully we can stretch them at the back with Tippett back.

The Eagles won't be easy over there, but our record in recent years at Subiaco is outstanding (and with Glass gone, assuming Tippett is fit, I think they'll struggle to contain our talls);

Carlton at home, if we play anywhere near our best, should be relatively straightforward (depending on which version of Carlton turn up);

Essendon at home - we beat them pretty comfortably earlier in the year. Certainly no gimme, but you'd expect a good performance would see a comfortable win;

Saints and bulldogs - no excuses on either of these. Saints game frankly should be a 10 goal plus mauling, and the Dogs will probably worry us for a half or so again, before we come over the top in the second half;

Tigers - by rd 23, hopefully they will be well and truly demoralised at the bottom of the ladder. Certainly a dangerous team that matches up well against us, but at home (well our home away from home), then you would think we should be able to do it comfortably.

It really is a pretty tidy draw. Get a few results go our way and there may be some opportunity in those last 3 weeks to rest a few boys as well. I do worry that we will be lacking in 'big games' over the last couple of months of the season, but there is no doubt the Hawks and port games will be played in an intensive, finals like manner.

Its all shaping up for a very good final series - I would argue that if the top 4 teams stay the same, any of them will believe they can beat any of the rest of them on their day, home or away.

[DeadlyAkkuret]

I get worried about assuming we'll just win all the "easy" games, but then my opinion doesn't change how they play.

This is our best chance to finish top 2 since 1996.

[Matimbo]

Sooner or later we know that every team has a match they don't turn up for mentally, especially so if they have had a bunch of tough fought wins. During the first qtr against Richmond I was thinking this was going to be the game we would lose for this reason. But we got over the line despite this.

I believe the team will be really up mentally for this week's game against GWS because of the way we lost to them in round 1. I expect we will go hard and win well.

Then I see the West Coast game as a real danger game ... possible let down after going very hard at GWS ... sitting high on the ladder ... travel on top ... still with Hanners and Shaw out. Depends whether West Coast turns up primed for a big one, they have been a bit Jeckyll and Hyde so far.

[Melbourne_Blood]

I haven't felt worried about a west coast game for a while, we seem to be well on top of them recently. Then again, if the players think that way, we could be in strife ...

[CureTheSane]

Remember seeing a ladder predictor (from an article on the AFL site I think) a week ago where it was assessed that we finish 1st, followed by Freo based on the remaining draw.
:)

[swansrob]

If we win all these games, plus all the games we play in September, we've got a pretty good chance of being premiers

[Nico]

The last game against Richmond might be a worry if they are fighting it out for 9th.

[jono2707]

If we win all these games, plus all the games we play in September, we've got a pretty good chance of being premiers

I agree - no losses from here on in and we stand a pretty good chance....

[Melb Blood Bro]

The last game against Richmond might be a worry if they are fighting it out for 9th.

The last round is usually littered with upsets too. The teams that have no chance of making the finals fly caution to the wind and often play out of their skins as they have nothing to lose.

[DK_]

If we win all these games, plus all the games we play in September, we've got a pretty good chance of being premiers

Any team that wins all its games in September (assuming they get that far) will be premiers by definition...

[Melbourne_Blood]

Thanks for clearing that up DK

[liz]

The last game against Richmond might be a worry if they are fighting it out for 9th.

The way they are going, they are more likely to be fighting to avoid the wooden spoon (or to "earn" the first draft pick!)

[Big Al]

The last game against Richmond might be a worry if they are fighting it out for 9th.

Very old but always brings a smile to the face.

New Richmond theme song "We Finished 9th again" - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBD49n36F9k&sns=em)

[tasmania60]

So tough Freos back tight hard footy, Hawks are just cruising, a worry , Port wont be able to carry its game to the finals .Sydney on a good day can win against the 3 . Great chance to grab one but its all got to go right ?

[Faunac8]

Well played Roos great victory on our behalf

[Melb Blood Bro]

Lets hope Port can lose too.

[YvonneH]

Good result re: Hawthorn, but now we need to keep up our end of the bargain by winning. We can't rely on other results, we have to keep doing what we are doing.

[aguy]

Good result re: Hawthorn, but now we need to keep up our end of the bargain by winning. We can't rely on other results, we have to keep doing what we are doing.

That's exactly right. The door is open for 1st or second place by the end of the round but it's up to us to take

[Ampersand]

With Rioli out, Sewell probably gone, Brian Lake suspended (what a massive brain snap!) and Hannebery back in the squad I rate our chances against the Hawks in a couple of weeks.

[aguy]

With Rioli out, Sewell probably gone, Brian Lake suspended (what a massive brain snap!) and Hannebery back in the squad I rate our chances against the Hawks in a couple of weeks.
I hope Hanners is gonna be back then. There is also a chance that shaw will be back too

We can also hope that port stumble a bit because their defensive stocks have taken a bit of an Injury hit.

But at the end if the day sydney has to keep winning regardless if what other results are

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And personally I hope lake goes for a long time because that was completely inexcusable. In no way was he playing football. You can't try an strangle a person in it off the football field. In fact off the football field he could easily have been charged by the police so I have no sympathy.

[Meg]

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And personally I hope lake goes for a long time because that was completely inexcusable. In no way was he playing football. You can't try an strangle a person in it off the football field. In fact off the football field he could easily have been charged by the police so I have no sympathy.

I agree with you. I also hope (at least on the TV footage I saw) that Petrie doesn't get penalised as well. At one point Petrie appeared to be scraping at Lake's eyes in what seemed to me a justifiable attempt to make Lake let go of his throat.

[Go Swannies]

It will be interesting to see if Mitchell goes for the attempt to corkie one of the Roos. When the going gets tough the Hawks get thuggish.

[Jewels]

Brian Lake is my current most hated footballer, seems like a douche on field and off. Hope he gets a month but I'm betting he won't, a week at best I think. Anyone know his record?

[Jewels]

It will be interesting to see if Mitchell goes for the attempt to corkie one of the Roos. When the going gets tough the Hawks get thuggish.
Don't think he'll get time for that though it was completely unnecessary. Totally agree with the thuggish comment, North really had them rattled for a while there and they had no answers but to strike out at them.

[Melb Blood Bro]

With Rioli out, Sewell probably gone, Brian Lake suspended (what a massive brain snap!) and Hannebery back in the squad I rate our chances against the Hawks in a couple of weeks.

True, that is better for our chances of beating them, but it would also be beneficial for our game plan against them in the finals to play them when they are stronger so that we can analyse their strengths and weaknesses somewhat. Don't forget Hannas will be pretty rusty as that will probably be his first week back.

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Don't think he'll get time for that though it was completely unnecessary. Totally agree with the thuggish comment, North really had them rattled for a while there and they had no answers but to strike out at them.

I'm surprised no-one is talking about Hodge head high tackle against Swallow shortly after the Lake incident. That was a really hard hit, well after he disposed of the ball. Swallow was clearly hurt.

[Mel_C]

Not sure if anyone saw when Mitchell clapped the umpire after he gave away a free. I remember when Goodes shook his finger at the umpire he got 50 metres for dissent. What Mitchell did was the same yet he wasn't penalised.

The hawks showed a lack of discipline especially in the third quarter. It looks like their injuries might be catching up to them like it did for us last year.

The season is in our own hands now. We just have to keep winning and we will finish top 2.

[Jewels]

I'm surprised no-one is talking about Hodge head high tackle against Swallow shortly after the Lake incident. That was a really hard hit, well after he disposed of the ball. Swallow was clearly hurt.

Yer that was bad and should certainly be looked at, Swallow didn't look well at all for a while there.
At least that was part of the play though and not a straight out snipe like the other incidents were.

[Ampersand]

Hawks season is sort of mirroring ours last year. Even if they get players back just before the finals it will take them a few weeks to get back match fitness and coordination. Their ladder position belies their recent form. They were very lucky not to drop a few more games over the past couple of months.

[Matt80]

I agree with you. I also hope (at least on the TV footage I saw) that Petrie doesn't get penalised as well. At one point Petrie appeared to be scraping at Lake's eyes in what seemed to me a justifiable attempt to make Lake let go of his throat.

If Lake and Gibson are both out of the Swans game their key defence will be under siege.

With Cyril out it means that Nick Smith can negate Luke Bruest. As long as we have no significant injuries we should beat the Hawks.

[Conor_Dillon]

With Rioli out, Sewell probably gone, Brian Lake suspended (what a massive brain snap!) and Hannebery back in the squad I rate our chances against the Hawks in a couple of weeks.

There's no reason we shouldn't start as favorites and fully expect to win. If we can't beat the Hawks at the 'G with those players out then how can we expect to beat them in Melbourne in September?

No doubt we haven't been playing our top-shelf, best footy but I think it's fair to say that we've been keeping a bit in the tank which is completely acceptable. We were absolutely cooked at the back end of last season but injuries aside we should be fresh, fit and firing for the finals series this year...regardless of whether we are 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th on the table

[Melb Blood Bro]

Not sure if anyone saw when Mitchell clapped the umpire after he gave away a free. I remember when Goodes shook his finger at the umpire he got 50 metres for dissent. What Mitchell did was the same yet he wasn't penalised.

The hawks showed a lack of discipline especially in the third quarter. It looks like their injuries might be catching up to them like it did for us last year.

The season is in our own hands now. We just have to keep winning and we will finish top 2.

I don't know why but for some reason the umpires love Hawthorn. You only need to look at the raw deal we got in the 12 GF and most other games we have played against them. The Hawks players were running head long with their head down into our guys and they'd come away with a free kick. The introduction of the ruling about this act before this year has reduced this occurring but they were still incorrect free kicks at the time. I know that umpires don't consciously favour teams but there must be something in their sub-conscious about Hawthorn.

[aguy]

And port loose. The window is open :)

[Melb Blood Bro]

Wow. Port lost as well. The ball is in our court now. We can take the position of overall ladder leader if we want it desperately enough! If we can win and add some % this weekend it would be great.

[Ludwig]

Win: We're in 1st with a game break.

Lose: We drop to 4th.

[Melb Blood Bro]

Win: We're in 1st with a game break.

Lose: We drop to 4th.

These are the games we've lose in past history (when we've let our guard down). Hopefully this year is different.

[Doctor]

Ugly game in Adelaide, but that suited Essendon. Port are going to have to expect that from opponents now. A win in Perth and we're top. Let
s hope we can get the job done tomorrow.

[CJK]

Only fitting that a win in Perth against West Coast should put us top.

Let's do this thing.

[Melb Blood Bro]

Ugly game in Adelaide, but that suited Essendon. Port are going to have to expect that from opponents now. A win in Perth and we're top. Let
s hope we can get the job done tomorrow.

I didnt see it. Did the Bombers shut it down? It makes sense do that against a team with their fitness.

[DK_]

I'm hoping for a repeat of 2012 where Jetta owned the Eagles, kicked four and led us to a 50 point win.

But also incredibly nervous! I bet most Hawks and Port supporters had already banked the 4 points...

[DeadlyAkkuret]

Soo nervous now.

[Old S.M.Blood]

Does this change our chances?
Perth for Sunday Cloudy. Destructive winds possible. Rain developing in the morning, easing to isolated showers in the late afternoon, clearing during the evening. Isolated thunderstorms this morning. Winds N/NW 20 to 30 km/h turning W 25 to 35 km/h in the morning then decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Around Perth Perth Coastal Plain: Low-Moderate Perth Hills: Low

[Auntie.Gerald]

not for me

we have needed one of these games moving towards the finals to see where we are at with our wet weather footy :)

[Doctor]

Happy to test ourselves in the wet, but let's do it against St Kilda.

[MadCanuck]

Appears to be pouring in Perth right now. Do we have any eyewitnesses who can report?

[aardvark]

256 km Perth (Serpentine) Radar Loop (http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR702.loop.shtml#skip)

Heavy showers atm but that might be it for the day.

[CureTheSane]

Rain is good.
An excuse for a loss :)

[Kelpie_X]

I'm an eye witness and it is pissing down with thunder and lightning. But there appears to be just the one big front so lets hope it passes soon

[Doctor]

Was one of our best wet weather performances in recent times. Parker the new Jude in the wet!

How good was Buddy's one-handed scoop on the run in the first quarter btw?