Best Case Scenario First Finals Week

[MightyBloods]

Swans to beat Freo
Port to beat Tigers
Hawks to beat Cats
Bombers to beat Roos

My reasoning:

Port will have to travel again to WA to fight Freo.
Freo will have a tougher match-up against Port
Swans would play Cats or Bombers in a prelim at home for a berth in the GF
Hawks would need to play Freo or Port in a prelim at the G. Not guaranteed.

I tipped Freo for the flag at the start of the year so I'm nervous about this week's game. A good start is critical to mess with their structures and confidence. They are a well drilled and well coached team.

Win or lose, we will always play in Sydney or Melbourne throughout the finals.

[mcs]

I'd be very happy with the Cats or Bombers in the Prelim - that would be a good result.

We need to hit the ground running against Freo and get them playing chase up - that is when they struggle. If they control the tempo and flow of the game, it'll be a tight one and we will be in trouble. Come out of the blocks running and we can play the game on our terms - we are very good at controlling a game when we dominate early.

I think The roos will beat the bombers though.

[DamY]

On twitter there was a stat regarding Freo and the number of wins they had after being 20+ points down - I think we gotta go hard fast and keep piling on the goals to win. Mitchell's quick hands, kicking to space and making use of the fast-paced players will be an important strategy to winning. I still remember the suffocating defence in the preliminary final last year

[CureTheSane]

Would prefer the Cats to win the first final

[barry]

Best case for a flag is meeting hawthorn in sydney, not the mcg.

So, go cats

[MightyBloods]

Best case for a flag is meeting hawthorn in sydney, not the mcg.

So, go cats

You're assuming the Hawks get past Freo in a potential prelim at the G. Either way, it would be a hard slog for both teams.

[Cosmic Wizard]

What we need is:
Swans to beat Freo
Cats to beat Hawthorn
Essendon to beat to North.
Doesn't matter about the other game.
What would be good is for the cat to win and hawthorn then play essendon, both side hate each other and will beat the crap out of each other
On the other side a cats and freo PF promises plenty of the same.
And then the swans can, for once, NOT GIVE THEIR FANS HEART ATTACKS WITH A NAIL BITING FINISH; I mean just win one GF easily, it that to much to ask???

[mcs]

No grand final is ever easy, and I'd be worried about complacency if we met the cats in the Grand Final.

I sadly can't see the Cats getting near the Hawks however. They've shown no 'extra gear' against the best teams this year, and I don't expect that to change on friday night.

[aardvark]

Does anyone know how many times has the Minor Premiers won the flag in the last 100+ years?

[Rob2120]

Playing Freo the first week is perfect. If we win, we most likely get Geelong at ANZ for the prelim. If we lose, we have a game against the winner of port and the tigers in the second week at ANZ, which if we can't win we don't deserve to progress. We would then play the Hawks in the prelim at the MCG ie the GF a week early. I can't see either Freo or the Cats winning a GF after playing such a high intensity game that Freo plays.

You could probably argue that it would be better to lose to Freo if the Hawks also lost. The Hawks playing at subico in the third week while we play the cats at the MCG.

[mcs]

Playing Freo the first week is perfect. If we win, we most likely get Geelong at ANZ for the prelim. If we lose, we have a game against the winner of port and the tigers in the second week at ANZ, which if we can't win we don't deserve to progress. We would then play the Hawks in the prelim at the MCG ie the GF a week early. I can't see either Freo or the Cats winning a GF after playing such a high intensity game that Freo plays.

You could probably argue that it would be better to lose to Freo if the Hawks also lost. The Hawks playing at subico in the third week while we play the cats at the MCG.

Maybe - but frankly, the easiest way to win a flag is to win three in a row in September. In the end, its arbitrary what order you play them in to some extent, for its likely you'll have to beat all the other top 4 teams to win the flag anyway.

Lets beat the lot of them and do it in style :)

[Meg]

Does anyone know how many times has the Minor Premiers won the flag in the last 100+ years?

I got the following from (ever reliable source) Wikipedia.

Since 1897, 64 out of 117 (55%) of minor premiers have gone,on to win the grand final.


List of Australian Football League minor premiers - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_Football_League_minor_premiers)

[barry]

Basically this is our flag to lose.


Doesnt matter to much who we play, but I would like a neutral grand final.

[aardvark]

I got the following from (ever reliable source) Wikipedia.

Since 1897, 64 out of 117 (55%) of minor premiers have gone,on to win the grand final.


List of Australian Football League minor premiers - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_Football_League_minor_premiers)

Thanks Meg. So we are better than a 50/50 chance. $2.75 is probably a reasonable bet.

[ScottH]

I got the following from (ever reliable source) Wikipedia.

Since 1897, 64 out of 117 (55%) of minor premiers have gone,on to win the grand final.


List of Australian Football League minor premiers - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_Football_League_minor_premiers)

We've won it twice recently and have not been Minor Premiers in either year.
I like that % better.