I watched the R18 loss to Hawthorn again (so you don't have to)

[Ampersand]

Round 18 - Hawthorn Vs Sydney Swans

CONDITIONS
Minor periods of rain. Night game.

Summary: Dry conditions will offer a small advantage to Swans. Probably negligible in terms of impact.

LIKELY INS AND OUTS
Sydney Swans
In: Hannebery, Shaw
Out: Laidler, Towers

Hawthorn
Ins: Lake, Rioli (?), Hale, Spangher, Duryea, Sewell
Outs: Lewis (?), McEvoy, Woodward, Litherland, Ceglar

Summary: Some big inclusions for the Hawks, but an unsettled line-up with lots of changes possible. If Rioli or Sewell come in it will be a big gamble.

MAJOR POINTS

Rampe destroyed Gunston... and not just physically one-on-one. It was clear that Rampe got inside Gunston�s head. Rampe pulled off a goal saving tackle (probably one of the best defensive efforts of the season) and Gunston�s frustration was evident, particularly when he gave away a 50m-penalty shortly thereafter.

Teddy really needs help... his form in recent weeks against key forwards has been badly down, particularly on the lead. Riewoldt, Pav and Petrie have managed to easily outposition him goalside. Roughhead beat Ted on the lead several times and even looked better when the ball hit the deck. If Ted starts on Roughhead this weekend and gets outmanoeuvered we will have to look to Reid to come back as a loose man in defence.

Goodes can be a game changer... he kicked 2.1 within five minutes in the third and could have easily finished with five goals, especially if he�d been paid the clear mark he clunked in the goal square late in the fourth.

So can Breust... he really kick-started their comeback and scored or set up some critical goals. His �don�t argue� has to be one of the best in the comp and it was the first time all season that Smith looked like he was out of his comfort zone. Players need to be aware that he will consistently break tackles and be prepared to back up their teammates.

�Engine room down�... Four Hawks (Lewis, Mitchell, Hodge, Shiels) ended as the game's top four possession winners and our midfield was badly beaten for extended patches in the third and fourth quarter. Worse still, our coaches were slow to respond to this and there was never an attempt to put a hard tag on these players - mostly because Benny was busy running amok in their forward 50. Shiels, in contrast, really shut down Kennedy for critical parts of the contest. Hannebery is a big inclusion in this regard and will hopefully even things up in the middle. Keiran Jack is also in much better form and his rib issue seems to have settled down.

Buddy�s inaccuracy is somewhat overstated... he kicked 3.5, but some of his set shots were deep in the pocket and would have taken a miracle to kick. He probably only missed one, at most two, that he should have gotten. Tippett�s inaccuracy, on the other hand, was a big problem. He missed two shots from the 35-45m region that he really should have kicked. Hawthorn�s accuracy for similar set shots was scarily good and it was probably the difference in the end.

Our run off half-back was down... we really had trouble clearing out of our half of the ground for extended periods. Mal played poorly with only 17 possessions and Shaw was a big omission for us.

Rohan played quite well, Parker not so much... Despite his low possession count, Rohan played one of his best games of the season. He spoiled well, broke the lines, took a couple of crucial grabs in the defensive 50. Parker was below his best - but only because we�ve come to expect so much from him. He tried hard, as he always does, and impacted the contest but had difficulty emerging from the packs with the ball. I�d be interested to know how much Parker and Hannebery link up in the middle because that might have been the difference.

Lake is a huge inclusion, Lewis could be a huge omission... Schoenmakers was done like a dinner in the air against Tippett. He lacked the strength and the height to compete and was destroyed. Lake will still be outmatched in terms of height, but he has the strength to compete for a contested grab. Lewis was the top possession getter for the game and didn�t get a lot of pressure defensively. It will be a big plus for the Swans� chances if he doesn�t get up for Saturday.

Two months on, still baffled by the Grundy substitution... he came off for Towers (who, I�ll admit, played pretty well in a short cameo). There was no injury concerns with Reg and it seemed like Laidler was the more obvious choice if we were going to take off a defender. A really bold move would have been to take off Pyke, who did not play well, go with a faster line-up and leave Tippett and Reid to do the rucking. Mike Pyke�s form has improved substantially since this match (he got 5 possessions, 1 mark and we were destroyed in hit-outs 46-32) so I expect a better showing around the ruck this weekend.

[Industrial Fan]

Thanks for that.

Wasnt planning on watching that game again. I just remember our mids got smashed. Scoreline probably flattered us in the end.

I know it did with the Hawks when they came to Sydney.

[Conor_Dillon]

I remember walking out of the 'G thinking, "They played their best, we played our worst, and we still should have won" rightly or wrongly I left that night more confident about the Premiership than I was when I arrived.

[Go Swannies]

I left the ground thinking "that was a very strange game!" In fact I decided that Horse was playing mind games and the Swans didn't want to give away too much by way of tactics pre-finals. I hope I'm right. Or maybe Conor's musings were more succinct.

[Melbournehammer]

I left the ground thinking - wasted opportunity. Felt we were better for much of the night, but just allowed them to get out the back too often and when they attacked they attacked very fast.

I think Ted has been down for much of the back half of the season. Not just defensively beaten on the lead but his disposal and decision-making has been poor. the game that roughy played reminded me a bit of the semi final where we lost to them in 2011 where buddy came out and just walloped us from the first bounce by being too fast and too mobile for ted.

my views haven't changed much - I think we need to get the ball into scoring positions about six-eight times more as minimum because I think the breust, gunston, roughhead, smith group are better kickers than are like for like players. But we win the ball often enough and get the ball into mcveigh, jetta and buddy they will deliver enough goals for us i reckon through their inside fifty delivery.

[troyjones2525]

Smith, Pyke, Hanners, Shaw, Kennedy, Mcglynn and Buddy have all had well needed rests since then and we were probably nearing the point where it we needed a few to freshen up. A lot of the players who were down then have got back into some form so hopefully we can turn it around a put in a huge 4 qtr effort this time round! There is no next week!

[dimelb]

... I think Ted has been down for much of the back half of the season. Not just defensively beaten on the lead but his disposal and decision-making has been poor. the game that roughy played reminded me a bit of the semi final where we lost to them in 2011 where buddy came out and just walloped us from the first bounce by being too fast and too mobile for ted. ...

I can't recall impressions from that match but I was concerned on Friday night when Ted took a terrific mark in front of North's goal, then instead of kicking it, actually wandered leisurely to the right, left it too late to kick, had to handball and the ball was caught up in a totally unnecessary scrum. Jake handballed to North in the confusion and a goal followed. I hope Ted can focus on the job next Saturday. In his favour, he has shown he still has the capacity to read the game coupled with good speed and a penetrating and accurate kick; he'll need them all against the Hawks.

[tasmania60]

Agree i thought the coach was analyzing certain thing and let things go by to see what would happen, horse is a lot more astute than people make him out to be . Im sure his game plan has been set in stone from mid way through the year,hopefully its the right one?

[Melbournehammer]

I can't recall impressions from that match but I was concerned on Friday night when Ted took a terrific mark in front of North's goal, then instead of kicking it, actually wandered leisurely to the right, left it too late to kick, had to handball and the ball was caught up in a totally unnecessary scrum. Jake handballed to North in the confusion and a goal followed. I hope Ted can focus on the job next Saturday. In his favour, he has shown he still has the capacity to read the game coupled with good speed and a penetrating and accurate kick; he'll need them all against the Hawks.

yeah i had a whinge about that to the people around me - ted handpassed to reg who handpassed back who handpassed back and then let it go over the sideline. boundary throw scramble goal.

it was a horrid moment on an otherwise lovely night

[GordonS]

yeah, like others have also said, i thought we played pretty average and only just lost, while hawthorn played very well.

[top40]

Round 18 - Hawthorn Vs Sydney Swans

CONDITIONS
Minor periods of rain. Night game.

Summary: Dry conditions will offer a small advantage to Swans. Probably negligible in terms of impact.

LIKELY INS AND OUTS
Sydney Swans
In: Hannebery, Shaw
Out: Laidler, Towers

Hawthorn
Ins: Lake, Rioli (?), Hale, Spangher, Duryea, Sewell
Outs: Lewis (?), McEvoy, Woodward, Litherland, Ceglar

Summary: Some big inclusions for the Hawks, but an unsettled line-up with lots of changes possible. If Rioli or Sewell come in it will be a big gamble.

MAJOR POINTS

Rampe destroyed Gunston... and not just physically one-on-one. It was clear that Rampe got inside Gunston�s head. Rampe pulled off a goal saving tackle (probably one of the best defensive efforts of the season) and Gunston�s frustration was evident, particularly when he gave away a 50m-penalty shortly thereafter.

Teddy really needs help... his form in recent weeks against key forwards has been badly down, particularly on the lead. Riewoldt, Pav and Petrie have managed to easily outposition him goalside. Roughhead beat Ted on the lead several times and even looked better when the ball hit the deck. If Ted starts on Roughhead this weekend and gets outmanoeuvered we will have to look to Reid to come back as a loose man in defence.

Goodes can be a game changer... he kicked 2.1 within five minutes in the third and could have easily finished with five goals, especially if he�d been paid the clear mark he clunked in the goal square late in the fourth.

So can Breust... he really kick-started their comeback and scored or set up some critical goals. His �don�t argue� has to be one of the best in the comp and it was the first time all season that Smith looked like he was out of his comfort zone. Players need to be aware that he will consistently break tackles and be prepared to back up their teammates.

�Engine room down�... Four Hawks (Lewis, Mitchell, Hodge, Shiels) ended as the game's top four possession winners and our midfield was badly beaten for extended patches in the third and fourth quarter. Worse still, our coaches were slow to respond to this and there was never an attempt to put a hard tag on these players - mostly because Benny was busy running amok in their forward 50. Shiels, in contrast, really shut down Kennedy for critical parts of the contest. Hannebery is a big inclusion in this regard and will hopefully even things up in the middle. Keiran Jack is also in much better form and his rib issue seems to have settled down.

Buddy�s inaccuracy is somewhat overstated... he kicked 3.5, but some of his set shots were deep in the pocket and would have taken a miracle to kick. He probably only missed one, at most two, that he should have gotten. Tippett�s inaccuracy, on the other hand, was a big problem. He missed two shots from the 35-45m region that he really should have kicked. Hawthorn�s accuracy for similar set shots was scarily good and it was probably the difference in the end.

Our run off half-back was down... we really had trouble clearing out of our half of the ground for extended periods. Mal played poorly with only 17 possessions and Shaw was a big omission for us.

Rohan played quite well, Parker not so much... Despite his low possession count, Rohan played one of his best games of the season. He spoiled well, broke the lines, took a couple of crucial grabs in the defensive 50. Parker was below his best - but only because we�ve come to expect so much from him. He tried hard, as he always does, and impacted the contest but had difficulty emerging from the packs with the ball. I�d be interested to know how much Parker and Hannebery link up in the middle because that might have been the difference.

Lake is a huge inclusion, Lewis could be a huge omission... Schoenmakers was done like a dinner in the air against Tippett. He lacked the strength and the height to compete and was destroyed. Lake will still be outmatched in terms of height, but he has the strength to compete for a contested grab. Lewis was the top possession getter for the game and didn�t get a lot of pressure defensively. It will be a big plus for the Swans� chances if he doesn�t get up for Saturday.

Two months on, still baffled by the Grundy substitution... he came off for Towers (who, I�ll admit, played pretty well in a short cameo). There was no injury concerns with Reg and it seemed like Laidler was the more obvious choice if we were going to take off a defender. A really bold move would have been to take off Pyke, who did not play well, go with a faster line-up and leave Tippett and Reid to do the rucking. Mike Pyke�s form has improved substantially since this match (he got 5 possessions, 1 mark and we were destroyed in hit-outs 46-32) so I expect a better showing around the ruck this weekend.

Great analysis.

I would suggests the following:

1. Hanners being in is a huge plus for Sydney.
2. Shaw adds great experience, his first Grand Final being 12 years ago.
3. The current Swans team is fast, particularly the now in form Rohan, as well as Jetta, and Cunningham. No disrespect to Laidler, but he was too slow for Puopolo .
4. Same ground I known for this weekend, but the crowd support for Hawthorn in the Grand Final will be less than it was for their Home game in Round 18.
5. A hope here, but surely its third time lucky for Buddy in terms of goal kicking accuracy against his old club. I don't want to put pressure on Bud, but his kicking accuracy holds the key for the Granny.

[MightyBloods]

I remember walking away from that game in a confident mood. Our midfield got smashed, it was in the wet on the Hawks home soil. I can't see our midfield (with Hanners in) playing that badly this saturday. Add the maturity of Cunningham, Lloyd and Rohan then we'll give it a red hot shot. I only wish for composure and accuracy.

[mcs]

I only wish for composure and accuracy.

+1 to this. If we do this, then I think we will win.

I think our bottom 6-8 players is stronger than the bottom 6-8 of the Hawks (like in 2012), but not by much - and I think it'll come down to which bunch are least impacted by nerves and are most composed as to who will walk away with the flag.

The rd 18 game against the Hawks had a lot of similar qualities to our loss to them in 2012 towards the end of the season, and we all know how that ended up :)

[Flying South]

There are a couple of key areas for me

Clearances
I was at this game with some mates who barrack for Hawthorn. At half time I was feeling fairly happy and they where feeling a little worried. We then got smashed in the clearances. To me this is the key area. Pyke played great on Friday and if he can replicate that it would go along way to helping our clearance specialists get 1st use of the ball. If we can break even in this area I think we can get enough inside 50 to win the game. But we must convert those opportunities. If we kick 15.9 and not 12.12 we will win the game.

Match-Ups
There are intriguing match-ups all over the ground. But to me the key ones are

Mitchell & Hodge
They love to sit just behind the contest and orchestrate play. Can't allow them time to do this. I would send McGlynn to Hodge as I think he could be exposed by McGlynn's hard run. Bird will likely be sub, so send Jack to Mitchell to shut him down.

Hill & Smith
Hawks speedsters so Cunningham and Jetta are likely to get this job. Try to hurt them on the rebound.

Langford
Langford's development this year has been amazing. Not just a stopper but can kick a goal or two. Likely to go to Parker and will try to push forward and test Parker defensively. Luke will need help from team mates to block and free tag.

Puopolo
He has always caused us problems with his strength. Very difficult to tackle. It is only his inaccuracy that has restricted his damage against us previously. His strength provides a difficult match-up for us. Maybe Shaw could keep him quite.

Thoughts?

[Reggi]

+1 to this. If we do this, then I think we will win.

I think our bottom 6-8 players is stronger than the bottom 6-8 of the Hawks (like in 2012), but not by much - and I think it'll come down to which bunch are least impacted by nerves and are most composed as to who will walk away with the flag.

The rd 18 game against the Hawks had a lot of similar qualities to our loss to them in 2012 towards the end of the season, and we all know how that ended up :)

I think it was our strength in 12. Players like Young and Ellis have been cleaned out. The shoemaker replaced by Brian Harris. Our bottom few players are very inexperienced compared to theirs. We are more reliant than them on our gun players firing. We could be a bit exposed at the other end Lloyd, Rohan Cunningham.

Our best is break even I think. Whereas in 12 we had the hardened bodies Kennedy O'keefe Bolton etc. now they edge us there, Lewis Mitchell Hodge

Our advantage is outside run.

I am praying for dry conditions. Maybe Mcveigh to Smith

[mcs]

I think it was our strength in 12. Players like Young and Ellis have been cleaned out. The shoemaker replaced by Brian Harris. Our bottom few players are very inexperienced compared to theirs. We are more reliant than them on our gun players firing. We could be a bit exposed at the other end Lloyd, Rohan Cunningham.

Our best is break even I think. Whereas in 12 we had the hardened bodies Kennedy O'keefe Bolton etc. now they edge us there, Lewis Mitchell Hodge

Our advantage is outside run.

I am praying for dry conditions. Maybe Mcveigh to Smith

Certainly experience wise their bottom players have more than ours - but I think they are pretty even really. If our bottom 6 can get over the nerves of GF day, then we might be able to shade it. The key for our bottom 6 players is not to go into their shell, even if early on things don't go their way - especially for someone like Rohan. He was so good against North - and his ability to take on the line and break it could make all the difference in the end. That's where leadership comes into it.

I think we also have the edge in terms of gut running - Port showed that they are still vulnerable endurance wise. This could be a factor if its close late on Saturday, like it was in 2012.

I think we are all praying for dry conditions, as wet conditions swings it significantly Hawthorns way surely.

[crackedactor]

I will likely eat my words but I also looked at the last quarter of Port v Hawthorn. People say that hawthorn took it easy, but as far as I can see they looked tired. I mean if you are only 10 points up surely you need to do some gut running, I did not see too many do that in the last 10 minutes. If is was not for the old brigade of Hodge, Mitchell, roughead etc they would have definetly lost. I am tipping a comfortable win for the swans.

[Maca1701]

Personally I hope Rioli plays. Since 2012, we have played Hawthorn 8 times. When Rioli has played, we are 3-0. However, when he has missed we are 0-5. It may just be a statistical anomaly, but I feel that when he plays Smith goes to him and feels more confident. For whatever reason Breust always seems to get the best of Smith, and when Rioli is in the team, he tends to be featured less. Would love to get other people's take on this.

[barry]

I have a feeling we are going to win by about 40 points.

Hawks are travelling so bad, they shouldnr even be there.

[giant]

Thanks for this Ampersand. The Hawks really exposed a few chinks in our armour that night: Breust on Smith, the lack of run off the half back line, Pyke's effort in the ruck, lack of defensive pressure from the mids - heck the fact we let them score 9 in a row.

Will be a tough day at the office if we haven't learnt from that, but I'm confident we will.

[ernie koala]

It's looking like...... mass hijacking

[Hotpotato]

What has to be prevented is what The Hawks work so hard to do and that is a fast start .
They are ready to go at the first bounce. I just don't want them up by 5 goals in the first 10 mins,
But the other way around would be acceptable .
Horse has to have our boys chilled as much as possible from the first bounce , and his persona is really outstanding in this regard.

[mcs]

What has to be prevented is what The Hawks work so hard to do and that is a fast start .
They are ready to go at the first bounce. I just don't want them up by 5 goals in the first 10 mins,
But the other way around would be acceptable .
Horse has to have our boys chilled as much as possible from the first bounce , and his persona is really outstanding in this regard.

A fast start is critical. What we have shown this year is a very good ability, if we get in front early, to just hold a team at arms length all day long. That is what we all want to see - the Swans jumping out of the blocks, putting the pressure back on the wees and poos and make them chase the game. if we do that, then the game will be on our terms and we should win.

[ernie koala]

To me the most critical thing early in the game will be taking our opportunities....ie: kicking straight !

Generally, if you kick straight early, it takes the pressure off future shots on goal, for the whole team.

And it puts scoreboard pressure on the opposition.

IMO, if our forwards kick a few early, we'll be hard to stop.

[Melbournehammer]

The comments in the op to this thread were accurate and ought be repeated. Parker way down, midfield smashed, Lewis dominant, lake a major inclusion.

The only thing that surprises me is that our coaches clearly had learnt nothing from that game. We simply didn't have a plan to address this.

The first ten minutes we came to play. But jack deciding to hand pass despite going at goal on his left, hanners missing an open goal and goodes dumb hand pass to no one turning it over in the midfield.

From that point on midfield were pantsed

[Ampersand]

That's what really baffles me about the whole thing. We learnt nothing. I think on gameday Longmire is far to slow to react to a losing formula, whereas Clarkson is always adapting his gameplan. It's the reason the Hawks always, always, always manage to swing momentum their way, even when things don't look good.

After the first half in the GF we should have put every single player behind the ball, flooded our defensive 50 and just played ugly, tight defensive footy. Instead we spent the last quarter bombing to Buddy, Tippett and Reid in the forward fifty surrounded by three or four Hawks.

They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Well, if that's the case then Longmire needs to be certified.