Round 15: the other games. The 'what are the odds of that' round.

[dejavoodoo44]

Something of a blockbuster round, in that all of the teams in the eight play another team in the eight. And it's generally quite adjacent, as well: 1 v 2, 3 v 5, 4 v 6 and 7 v 8. It's also pretty adjacent for the teams outside the eight, with them all playing against opponents in much the same part of the ladder. I'm not sure how to do the maths, but the AFL site says that since the introduction of the top eight, there's only been five rounds in 29 years where the top eight teams have all played each other. Which on an entirely superficial analysis, possibly makes the chances of that happening a bit over 100 to 1? Remarkable, but not exceptionally remarkable. What would be exceptional, if it randomly occurred that the games were 1 v 2, 3 v 4, 5 v 6 and so on, down to 17 v 18. Once again, not entirely sure of the maths, but I suspect it would be 17 x 15 x 13 x 11 x 9 x 7 x 5 x 3 x 1. Which appears to be 34,459,424 to 1. Hmmm, don't think that I'll be calling Sports Bet.

Anyway, the football opens with 1 v 2; with Brisbane being 1 and Melbourne being 2. Many people feel that this is a grand final preview, which might be the case, but sort of ignores the fact that Melbourne have lost their last three and Brisbane have lost two of their last four. Some people also say that getting May back will be a big boost for Melbourne, but that would have to be counterbalanced by Gawn being gone. Brisbane have also got a couple of important injuries (which is rare for them) with Zorko and Bailey going out. No idea who's going to win, so let's just hope that football is the winner.

Strangely, the AFL appears to have scheduled two Friday night games. The first is the Bulldogs v the Hawks. Not that long ago, I would have gone for anyone but Hawthorn, but after a few years of mediocrity, I despise them less.

The other Friday game is the Eagles hosting the Bombers. After having a highly spirited upset win over the Saints last week, I can easily see the Bombers losing this one, just to finish the job of driving their supporters absolutely bat@@@@ crazy.

The first Saturday match features perhaps the two surprise packets of the season, Carlton and Fremantle. Which shapes as a very important match. Will the talent packed but previously underachieving Carlton establish themselves as a genuine finals side? Or will a Fremantle side that has recently beaten Melbourne and Brisbane without Nat Fyfe, be even more of a contender now that Fyfe is fit?

Another blockbuster is next up with Geelong hosting Richmond at...err...the MCG. No idea who I want to win that?

That's followed by our perhaps season defining clash with St Kilda.

The first Sunday game is between two teams that have already defined their seasons as disasters: North and Adelaide.

Next up is another clash in which I have no idea who I'd prefer to win: the overachieving Magpies or the underachieving Giants?

And finally it's another game that should be a quality encounter: Port v Gold Coast. Will the Power continue their charge or will it finally be the year that the Suns make the eight?

[TheBloods]

Big round , we will see who is up for it and who isnt

4 winners out of this round should be flag favourites

[i'm-uninformed2]

cheering on any result that helps us.

Plus go North. Remind The Rat was a crappy future he has.

[dejavoodoo44]

Looks like it might be a nasty broken rib or two to Lyons. You could pretty well see the pain in every breath.

[dejavoodoo44]

Seems like Lyons is coming back on. Which truly surprises me.

[neilfws]

Seems like Lyons is coming back on. Which truly surprises me.

Same! Looked in all sorts of trouble when he came off. Maybe just bruised and winded, but wouldn't surprise me if they find a crack later.

[dejavoodoo44]

Same! Looked in all sorts of trouble when he came off. Maybe just bruised and winded, but wouldn't surprise me if they find a crack later.
Yes, the flying knee looked a definite rib breaker. Maybe they gave him an effective local anaesthetic? But still, if it's just a small break, then another knock would probably make it a large break.

[TheBloods]

Demons have some young stars , Jordon , Jackson, Pickett all fantastic talents

[dejavoodoo44]

Surprisingly one sided game. Fremantle up to second on the live ladder.

[Ludwig]

Demons have some young stars , Jordon , Jackson, Pickett all fantastic talentsWe could have drafted James Jordan in 2018, but traded up to get Rowbottom. Their profiles and stats are remarkably close, but Jordan has played 19 fewer games, so he looks a bit ahead on that basis alone. It will be interesting to see how they go over their respective careers. Melbourne also picked up Tom Sparrow in the same 2nd round of the 2018 draft. Good work on their part. There are often excellent picks in the 2nd round of drafts. It can make a big difference to team development when it goes right.

[SwanSand]

Based on this performance itself, Brisbane will have to do a lot more from now on to win the flag. They are too small in the midfield and they have had the same problem for years now. Get beaten in the middle by big bodies. Also they are very poor in kicking for a top 4 side.

[longmile]

Based on this performance itself, Brisbane will have to do a lot more from now on to win the flag. They are too small in the midfield and they have had the same problem for years now. Get beaten in the middle by big bodies. Also they are very poor in kicking for a top 4 side.

Brisbane have to be the most overrated team of the last 3 years. Choke against any top team.

[neilfws]

Looks like the good Demons are back - a very "footy pundit" thing to say on the back of one game :) If there are teams where one player makes a huge difference, I think you could argue that it's the Demons + Steven May.

Brisbane were far from their best, but I still don't know that their best is good enough to go all the way. I generally enjoy watching them but they have a "scrappiness" about them, especially under pressure, that the genuine top teams don't have.

Interesting that the Lions haven't won at the MCG since 2014. They don't play there much, 1-2 games a year and none in 2021, but it's one of those streaks I'm sure they'd like to break.

I'm looking forward to the rest of the round, having the top 8 teams playing each other is an interesting test of where they're all at going into the second half of the season.

[RogueSwan]

Based on this performance itself, Brisbane will have to do a lot more from now on to win the flag. They are too small in the midfield and they have had the same problem for years now. Get beaten in the middle by big bodies. Also they are very poor in kicking for a top 4 side.

Missing Zorko and Bailey last night but they aren't making up 50 points

[Sandridge]

Bulldogs leading free kick count 6 to 1 at quarter time but still losing.

[longmile]

Bulldogs leading free kick count 6 to 1 at quarter time but still losing.

Dogs fans carrying on booing for not getting a free or bronx jeering when they "finally" get one gives me really strange feelings. I don't know whether to laugh or cry, scream or hide. Do they have no self awareness of how easy their team has it with the umpiring/AFL?

On another note, the Hawks have a similar issue to the Swans were they struggle to stem the tide and frequently cough up 5+ goals in a row

[The Big Cat]

Dogs fans carrying on booing for not getting a free or bronx jeering when they "finally" get one gives me really strange feelings. I don't know whether to laugh or cry, scream or hide. Do they have no self awareness of how easy their team has it with the umpiring/AFL?

11 to 3 at half time. Every week it’s like having an extra player.

[707]

11 to 3 at half time. Every week it’s like having an extra player.

The umpiring largesse continuously extended to the scum Dogs is sickening!

WCE beat Essendon, the latter confirming they are poo. LOLNorf are now last.

[Maltopia]

We could slip as low as 11th ourselves if we lose and other results are unfavourable to us :/

[dejavoodoo44]

By the way, the maths were bugging me a bit this morning, so I think I managed to work out the odds of the top eight sides playing each other in a round. If I'm right, it's, 10/7 × 10/5 × 10/3 × 10/1. Which works out at around a 94 to 1 chance. Which roughly corresponds with what has happened in reality.

[KTigers]

By the way, the maths were bugging me a bit this morning, so I think I managed to work out the odds of the top eight sides playing each other in a round. If I'm right, it's, 10/7 × 10/5 × 10/3 × 10/1. Which works out at around a 94 to 1 chance. Which roughly corresponds with what has happened in reality.

That's fascinating DV44, I'm going to be thinking about nothing else today.

[dejavoodoo44]

That's fascinating DV44, I'm going to be thinking about nothing else today.
Good, I'm glad I passed the burden. Though I wouldn't mind if someone who knew mathematics, could confirm that they're the right numbers.

[Kafka's Ghost]

If Franklin got a week for slapping Cotchin, Stewart should get 3-4 for his hit on Prestia. Ran past the ball, aimed high, left Prestia in a bad way.


Gesendet von iPhone mit Tapatalk

[liz]

Has Prestia been subbed out? The AFL is showing the incident but I can’t find anything written.

Will be interesting to see if it is classified as negligent or intentional. “In play” incidents are usually classified as negligent but the distance Stewart ran past the ball and the fact he seemed to aim for the head could see it get an intentional grading.

[Mel_C]

Has Prestia been subbed out? The AFL is showing the incident but I can’t find anything written.


The AFL app has him subbed out.

[dejavoodoo44]

The Port v Suns game has become interesting. Port applied huge pressure early and looked like blowing the Suns away. However, Witts has got since got right on top in the ruck and the Suns are now in front.

[i'm-uninformed2]

The Suns are into this like nothing, and either way, it’s a great, tough game.

[dejavoodoo44]

The Suns are into this like nothing, and either way, it’s a great, tough game.
Yes, excellent and intense game. Hopefully the Suns can launch another comeback in the last.

[i'm-uninformed2]

Gee that collision looked bad for Rankine. A shame, he’s such an exciting player critical to their movement inside 50.

[dejavoodoo44]

Gee that collision looked bad for Rankine. A shame, he’s such an exciting player critical to their movement inside 50.

Looks like coming back on. I'm very pleased. His skills are sublime.

[i'm-uninformed2]

What a game. Don’t feel so bad losing to those teams now! But seriously, they mightn’t make finals this year but GC are really on the right track these days. Good on them

[707]

Sad for GC to go down by 2 points. They are finally making serious progress. Stewie to get a contract extension you'd think. Clarko now firming for GWS

[Markwebbos]

I thought Clarko was going to the Bombers now?

[KTigers]

Clarko is going to coach the Bombers, GWS and the Suns next year. He has incorporated himself and is going to be operating
state coaching offices in the three states. Expect the Eagles, Port (or Crows) and the new franchise in Tassy to follow soon.
With so many of his former assistants already in positions at other clubs it seems inevitable that he will control all the head
coaching positions in the AFL in due course.

[Markwebbos]

Clarko is going to coach the Bombers, GWS and the Suns next year. He has incorporated himself and is going to be operating
state coaching offices in the three states. Expect the Eagles, Port (or Crows) and the new franchise in Tassy to follow soon.
With so many of his former assistants already in positions at other clubs it seems inevitable that he will control all the head
coaching positions in the AFL in due course.

They are going to rebrand as the ACL (Alistair Clarkson League)

[bloodspirit]

I think North should be pursuing Clarko for all their worth. On the one hand he's a former a shinboner. But on the other it is doubtful whether he'd want to take on such a basket case of a club, with a team that's likely to be a long way of contending for flags. Didn't he say he'd want to take on a list that was able to contend - or am I imagining that?

[Aprilbr]

I think North should be pursuing Clarko for all their worth. On the one hand he's a former a shinboner. But on the other it is doubtful whether he'd want to take on such a basket case of a club, with a team that's likely to be a long way of contending for flags. Didn't he say he'd want to take on a list that was able to contend - or am I imagining that?Yes, I would be shocked if Clarko took the North job. Its hard to see Noble lasting much longer with that Geoff Walsh review now happening but I cannot see such a lomg rebuild being of any attraction to Clarko.

[dejavoodoo44]

I do admire the dedication, of the presumably disillusioned Essendon fan who put this package together.

We Are Essington | Round 15 2022 | A NEW HOPE? - YouTube (https://youtu.be/BVzZWcemgCQ)

After watching it, I feel even more confident about next week.

[H2F]

I do admire the dedication, of the presumably disillusioned Essendon fan who put this package together.

We Are Essington | Round 15 2022 | A NEW HOPE? - YouTube (https://youtu.be/BVzZWcemgCQ)

After watching it, I feel even more confident about next week.

Wouldnt be taking them lightly we all can see how inconsistent on a week to week basis we have been

[KTigers]

I do admire the dedication, of the presumably disillusioned Essendon fan who put this package together.

We Are Essington | Round 15 2022 | A NEW HOPE? - YouTube (https://youtu.be/BVzZWcemgCQ)

After watching it, I feel even more confident about next week.

It's pretty funny. Joy Division was a nice touch. Just as long as that team that played Port doesn't show up, we should be okay.

[dejavoodoo44]

It's pretty funny. Joy Division was a nice touch. Just as long as that team that played Port doesn't show up, we should be okay.
Yes, possibly the first time ever that the voice of Ian Curtis has been used on a football package? And I'm sure it's quite representative of the vibe, of many Essendon fans watching them lose to West Coast. Let's hope it's God Damn the Sun by The Swans, after their next match.

[707]

Wow, the dedication of a deluded fan - brilliant!

When you put all the mistakes together in one package it looks horrendous, almost Norf Melbourne like :-)

[KTigers]

Yes, possibly the first time ever that the voice of Ian Curtis has been used on a football package? And I'm sure it's quite representative of the vibe, of many Essendon fans watching them lose to West Coast. Let's hope it's God Damn the Sun by The Swans, after their next match.

I watched pretty much the entire Stanley Cup (NHL) finals and heard all sorts of great stuff including The Ramones and Tool in the coverage.