2026 Season Prediction

[neilfws]

For what it's worth, Jonathan Horn has the Swans 2nd on his ladder this season.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2026/mar/03/afl-ladder-predictor-2026-predictions-brisbane-lions

He's generally worth reading but I question Freo fourth, and he seems to have forgotten about injuries to key Swans players when summarising their 2025 season.

[imuninformedtwo]

While I can’t really be arsed having a bet these days, I recently checked out the premiership odds. Sportsbet and TAB were identical for the first five: Brisbane at $4.50, Gold Coast at $8.00, Geelong at $9.00 and Hawthorn and us at $10.

Even though I fully expect Gold Coast to play finals, I was a little bit surprised that they were so short. Mainly because they still lack finals experience and the fact that they did trade away plenty of depth to get their recent academy crop. Though of course, another year older is a good thing for most of their players. And as you say, Petracca and Ballard are handy inclusions, and they might get lucky with Ugle-Hagan.

Problematically, Brisbane looks a little bit stronger on paper, but I'm consoling myself with the thought, that surely this will be the year that their season is totally cruelled by injuries.

I actually expected Hawthorn to be a little bit shorter, but I guess that price has factored in the Will Day injury.

A couple of other prices caught my eye. Firstly, both markets had Collingwood just outside the eight. Which seems fair, as many people see them as sliders, with a lot of pressure on young Nick Daicos, to keep them from sliding even further.

Also, I was slightly surprised that North were ranked 16th, only in front of Richmond and West Coast. They do have a squad that has plenty of high draft picks, who are maturing; so I'm wondering if that price means, that no one really considers Clarkson to be the messiah any more?

And on Curnow and McDonald: on a good day, Curnow and McKay seemed pretty unstoppable for Carlton, but I think there's a reasonable chance, that Curnow and McDonald will be an upgrade. While McKay probably has stronger hands, McDonald is the better kick, and assuming that his extended injury break hasn't slowed him down, he is quicker than McKay. There's also the fact that the Curnow and McKay partnership, often got pretty sloppy service from the Carlton midfield, whereas we've got ball users like Gulden, Heeney, Blakey, McInerney, Warner, etc.

Throw in Amartey as a third tall, and some quality smaller forwards, in Papley, Rosas, Dattoli and Campbell, plus Heeney and Warner wandering into the forward line, then we appear to be a side, that will be able to rack up match winning scores very quickly. Perhaps $10 is a bit short? Though it would probably be unwise, to get too confident before any matches have been played.

All fair. To be honest, I'm less fussed about our inclusions, talent, playing style or anything else.

I want to know - and I suspect it's part of why Cox was prepared to show a hard-ass side in the off season with some trades - we've fixed the resilience side. For all the ups and downs of last year, the second half submissions against Gold Coast and GWS, and capitulation against Geelong (I can kind of forgive the anomaly of the game against Adelaide) worried me most, as they were a repeat of the GF.

I want to know we can play tougher for longer.

[crackedactor 01]

While I can’t really be arsed having a bet these days, I recently checked out the premiership odds. Sportsbet and TAB were identical for the first five: Brisbane at $4.50, Gold Coast at $8.00, Geelong at $9.00 and Hawthorn and us at $10.

Even though I fully expect Gold Coast to play finals, I was a little bit surprised that they were so short. Mainly because they still lack finals experience and the fact that they did trade away plenty of depth to get their recent academy crop. Though of course, another year older is a good thing for most of their players. And as you say, Petracca and Ballard are handy inclusions, and they might get lucky with Ugle-Hagan.

Problematically, Brisbane looks a little bit stronger on paper, but I'm consoling myself with the thought, that surely this will be the year that their season is totally cruelled by injuries.

I actually expected Hawthorn to be a little bit shorter, but I guess that price has factored in the Will Day injury.

A couple of other prices caught my eye. Firstly, both markets had Collingwood just outside the eight. Which seems fair, as many people see them as sliders, with a lot of pressure on young Nick Daicos, to keep them from sliding even further.

Also, I was slightly surprised that North were ranked 16th, only in front of Richmond and West Coast. They do have a squad that has plenty of high draft picks, who are maturing; so I'm wondering if that price means, that no one really considers Clarkson to be the messiah any more?

And on Curnow and McDonald: on a good day, Curnow and McKay seemed pretty unstoppable for Carlton, but I think there's a reasonable chance, that Curnow and McDonald will be an upgrade. While McKay probably has stronger hands, McDonald is the better kick, and assuming that his extended injury break hasn't slowed him down, he is quicker than McKay. There's also the fact that the Curnow and McKay partnership, often got pretty sloppy service from the Carlton midfield, whereas we've got ball users like Gulden, Heeney, Blakey, McInerney, Warner, etc.

Throw in Amartey as a third tall, and some quality smaller forwards, in Papley, Rosas, Dattoli and Campbell, plus Heeney and Warner wandering into the forward line, then we appear to be a side, that will be able to rack up match winning scores very quickly. Perhaps $10 is a bit short? Though it would probably be unwise, to get too confident before any matches have been played.

Just for the record. SEN radio has declared that Sydney has the best forward line in the comp.

[dejavoodoo44]

I liked Hayward, but Logan will be a big upgrade. People forget he almost kicked 40 goals as a 22yo just two seasons back. Fingers crossed on injuries.

As for predictions, we’re all chasing the two northern clubs. Brisbane are a young side and if they stay hungry will be hard to beat.

Meamwhile, GC get more years into their 2023 draft crop, Bailey Humphrey is gonna be a certified star, Pertracca will relish a fresh start and they get Charlie Ballard back, who’s a gun. They are stacked and ready to go.

While I can’t really be arsed having a bet these days, I recently checked out the premiership odds. Sportsbet and TAB were identical for the first five: Brisbane at $4.50, Gold Coast at $8.00, Geelong at $9.00 and Hawthorn and us at $10.

Even though I fully expect Gold Coast to play finals, I was a little bit surprised that they were so short. Mainly because they still lack finals experience and the fact that they did trade away plenty of depth to get their recent academy crop. Though of course, another year older is a good thing for most of their players. And as you say, Petracca and Ballard are handy inclusions, and they might get lucky with Ugle-Hagan.

Problematically, Brisbane looks a little bit stronger on paper, but I'm consoling myself with the thought, that surely this will be the year that their season is totally cruelled by injuries.

I actually expected Hawthorn to be a little bit shorter, but I guess that price has factored in the Will Day injury.

A couple of other prices caught my eye. Firstly, both markets had Collingwood just outside the eight. Which seems fair, as many people see them as sliders, with a lot of pressure on young Nick Daicos, to keep them from sliding even further.

Also, I was slightly surprised that North were ranked 16th, only in front of Richmond and West Coast. They do have a squad that has plenty of high draft picks, who are maturing; so I'm wondering if that price means, that no one really considers Clarkson to be the messiah any more?

And on Curnow and McDonald: on a good day, Curnow and McKay seemed pretty unstoppable for Carlton, but I think there's a reasonable chance, that Curnow and McDonald will be an upgrade. While McKay probably has stronger hands, McDonald is the better kick, and assuming that his extended injury break hasn't slowed him down, he is quicker than McKay. There's also the fact that the Curnow and McKay partnership, often got pretty sloppy service from the Carlton midfield, whereas we've got ball users like Gulden, Heeney, Blakey, McInerney, Warner, etc.

Throw in Amartey as a third tall, and some quality smaller forwards, in Papley, Rosas, Dattoli and Campbell, plus Heeney and Warner wandering into the forward line, then we appear to be a side, that will be able to rack up match winning scores very quickly. Perhaps $10 is a bit short? Though it would probably be unwise, to get too confident before any matches have been played.

[imuninformedtwo]

I predict Logan will take over from Hayward and play that high forward role as the link between transitioning the ball from defence into attack.

He has the skills and footy IQ to do so. It also allows Curnow and Armatey to play as the deep key forwards, avoiding having being too tall up front.

I liked Hayward, but Logan will be a big upgrade. People forget he almost kicked 40 goals as a 22yo just two seasons back. Fingers crossed on injuries.

As for predictions, we’re all chasing the two northern clubs. Brisbane are a young side and if they stay hungry will be hard to beat.

Meamwhile, GC get more years into their 2023 draft crop, Bailey Humphrey is gonna be a certified star, Pertracca will relish a fresh start and they get Charlie Ballard back, who’s a gun. They are stacked and ready to go.

[KSAS]

I predict Logan will take over from Hayward and play that high forward role as the link between transitioning the ball from defence into attack.

He has the skills and footy IQ to do so. It also allows Curnow and Armatey to play as the deep key forwards, avoiding having being too tall up front.

[imuninformedtwo]

Kane mainly loves pumping up the Dogs so he can then rag on his favourite target in Luke Beveridge as a serial under-performer who should be sacked. It's been his routine for at least two years now.

He's half right - their top end talent is exceptional, and a full season from Darcy is a scary proposition. But they lack real depth, particularly down back, and Beveridge is a real weirdo who only has credits in the bank because he got kissed on the ass by the proverbial rainbow when they cheated their way to a flag in '16.

[mcs]

Media pundits are beginning to talk up our chances of finishing in the top 4. This is mainly built around getting Charlie Curnow.
Speaking of which, his brother Eddie has recently said Charlie wasn't 100% engaged last year and expects him to be firing with us.

Kane Cornes has already predicted Western Bulldogs to be premiers!

Brisbane still appear the ones to beat, despite the Lachie Neale saga.

Excellent. Kane's kiss of death should confine the fairypuppies to more mediocrity. Needs to be at least another 90 years before they get anywhere near stealing another flag.

[BFG]

Media pundits are beginning to talk up our chances of finishing in the top 4. This is mainly built around getting Charlie Curnow.
Speaking of which, his brother Eddie has recently said Charlie wasn't 100% engaged last year and expects him to be firing with us.

Kane Cornes has already predicted Western Bulldogs to be premiers!

Brisbane still appear the ones to beat, despite the stupid, sad and sordid Lachie Neale saga.

FTFY

[KSAS]

Media pundits are beginning to talk up our chances of finishing in the top 4. This is mainly built around getting Charlie Curnow.
Speaking of which, his brother Eddie has recently said Charlie wasn't 100% engaged last year and expects him to be firing with us.

Kane Cornes has already predicted Western Bulldogs to be premiers!

Brisbane still appear the ones to beat, despite the Lachie Neale saga.

[UUaswan]

Not sure if its been said but
Logan, Charlie are new big ins
Seron, Rosas will add something
Gulden, Amartey, Paps, Mills who didn't play much
Datolli, Ladhams, Hannily, Cleary hardly played and could add a bit
Maybe 2 or 3 key defenders everyone keeps talking about get a game
Even Jmac only played 16 games
Surely some of our draft feature
A whole host of others aged 20 to 25 improve

Fingers crossed with injury, we have significant upside

[111431]

For me we have way more scoreboard pressure capacity in 2026 plus a couple of our younger key backs will push into selection. Edwards, Snell etc are not far away now thank goodness as that depth is key for finals games if we loose a senior back.

Ollie was surplus with Serong, Wicks and Robert’s minimum taking over his role off HBF. Kyle could also feature in the backline and or wing in 2026. Kyle looks a great draft.

King Curnow and Rosas in for Buller and Hayward. For me that makes our forward line a dream for our mids, wings and backline line.

I suspect our forward entries and genuine increase in points from Curnow and Rosas will have the opposition on red alert.

It is one of the most talented looking teams I have seen us have for some time.

much more games played by so many of our elite emerging players like Warner, Gulden etc now have cracked 100 games….which tends to lead to better decision making and better game management.

Also we have finally seen Heeney (last couple seasons) be injury free and single handily winning us games like the best in the competition can do. Heeneys influence on a game now is deadly via his rotation of mids to forward line ! Issac played at least 70% midfield in 2025 season and still scored 37 goals in a terrible injury riddled season for the Swans. He is now a beast in my eyes and a nightmare for opposition coaches to handle.

im super bullish of a top4 finish.

Love it - with a good run with injuries we'll be right in the mix

[Auntie.Gerald]

For me we have way more scoreboard pressure capacity in 2026 plus a couple of our younger key backs will push into selection. Edwards, Snell etc are not far away now thank goodness as that depth is key for finals games if we loose a senior back.

Ollie was surplus with Serong, Wicks and Robert’s minimum taking over his role off HBF. Kyle could also feature in the backline and or wing in 2026. Kyle looks a great draft.

King Curnow and Rosas in for Buller and Hayward. For me that makes our forward line a dream for our mids, wings and backline line.

I suspect our forward entries and genuine increase in points from Curnow and Rosas will have the opposition on red alert.

It is one of the most talented looking teams I have seen us have for some time.

much more games played by so many of our elite emerging players like Warner, Gulden etc now have cracked 100 games….which tends to lead to better decision making and better game management.

Also we have finally seen Heeney (last couple seasons) be injury free and single handily winning us games like the best in the competition can do. Heeneys influence on a game now is deadly via his rotation of mids to forward line ! Issac played at least 70% midfield in 2025 season and still scored 37 goals in a terrible injury riddled season for the Swans. He is now a beast in my eyes and a nightmare for opposition coaches to handle.

im super bullish of a top4 finish.

[Dow]

You think the list has gone backward?

Ok here are the outs and ins


OUTS;

Fox
Mitchell
Kirk
Paton
Buller
Florent
Francis
Hayward
Leidler

Of those the only ones who would have been pushing for selection were;

Buller
Fox
Hayward
Florent

4 out of 9

INS;

Chamberlain
Cootee
Curnow
Hetherton
King
Kyle
Phillipou
Rosas
Serong

Of those these are the players who will be up for selection;

Cootee
Curnow
Phillipou
Rosas
Serong
Kyle

You could argue that Kyle and Phillipou are a stretch but I don't think so. In fact, I will go as far as to say Hetherton and King will push hard as well. Hetherton was seen as a very good prospect until he was injured. He was seen as top 20. But due to injury he wasn't seen in his mature year. I think we got a bargain there. He is that 197cm forward that might even grow a little. Buller would have been that but Hetherton is just as good, if not better than Buller.

The upshot is I think we are far stronger. Mitchell, Kirk, Paton, Francis, Leidler were not going to be really pushing for selection unless there was a major plague outbreak. Were-as all the new guts are likely to push for selection based on ability at the lower levels. Even Chamberlain. He played a couple of reserves games and didn't look out of place.

I enjoy your optimism, having watched players like King and Kyle very closely over the last 2 years they aren’t the players you are hyping them to be, they have talent but will require time they are both very very inconsistent and lack major game sense, a lot like Braeden Campbell the tools and talent BUT needs time and it might never happen. Like I said it’s not doom and gloom we just need to be patient

[Thunder Shaker]

You could argue that Kyle and Phillipou are a stretch but I don't think so. In fact, I will go as far as to say Hetherton and King will push hard as well. Hetherton was seen as a very good prospect until he was injured. He was seen as top 20. But due to injury he wasn't seen in his mature year. I think we got a bargain there. He is that 197cm forward that might even grow a little. Buller would have been that but Hetherton is just as good, if not better than Buller.

On Hetherton, rookieme.com in their article "25 in 2025: A look ahead to next year’s top prospects" (November 2024) said that he kicked three goals in the National Futures game, and kicked five for NSW/ACT against Vic Country. He wasn't in their top 25 list but was close to it.