Experts don't pick Sydney in Top 8

[ugg]

Swans to miss the spring - Sydney - realfooty.com.au

Connolly - 10th
Walls - 11th

We're definitely in!

[Claret]

Translation?

(Or if you can't understand that . . . . )

[TheGrimReaper]

Just because they have the 4th youngest list doesn't mean that they're getting any younger.

[Claret]

It's also fair to say it isn't getting any younger.

If you actually take a look at the list Brisbane have the 4th youngest team in the AFL.

Just because they have the 4th youngest list doesn't mean that they're getting any younger.

[liz]

2008

Team Years Days
Sydney Swans 23 301
St.Kilda 24 1

Those averages are interesting in the context of Schneider's claim that he is now part of a young emerging team, whereas the Swans are old and crusty. Admittedly the Saints' average age is distorted by having the 88 year old Robert Harvey still playing (and going strong) but they will also be hoping to get significant contributions out of the semi-reluctant Gehrig, the perenially injured Hudghton and a creaky old ruck division of King and Gardiner.

The most striking thing, though, if you look at lists of average ages of squads is how relatively little difference there is between the oldest and youngest. All clubs will have a veritable barrage of players between 18 and 21, many of whom will never play an AFL game and most of the rest who'll not get to 50 games. You only need a handful to emerge each year, and an "ideal" list surely has to be one with a good spread of senior team contributors from ages 21 or so up to their early 30s (since only the pretty good ones last that long), with a handul of younger players pushing their way through.

Some clubs (notably Hawthorn) have been talking up the advantages of having a large number of high draft picks all mature at the same time, but the salary cap is a significant obstacle to making that work in practice, even if all your players come on as you'd like them to.

[TheGrimReaper]

It's also fair to say it isn't getting any younger.

2008

Team Years Days
Carlton 22 146
West Coast Eagles 22 167
Hawthorn 22 220
Brisbane Lions 22 243
Port Adelaide 22 340
Essendon 22 351
Richmond 23 11
Melbourne 23 50
Collingwood 23 56
Western Bulldogs 23 73
Geelong 23 91
North Melbourne 23 99
Adelaide Crows 23 124
Sydney Swans 23 301
St.Kilda 24 1
Fremantle Dockers 24 149


If you actually take a look at the list Brisbane have the 4th youngest team in the AFL.

[Chow-Chicker]

Getting back to the thread, I think that we will do better than many expect. Why? Because outside of Geelong, Hawthorn and St Kilda I can't see any other sides being certainties for the 8.

Eagles - gone without Judd and Cousins
Port - Last year flattered them.
Kangas - ditto
Bullies - Still too small
Carlton - Judd's not enough - no defence
Collingwood - Retirements hurt - especially Clement
Brisbane - Aging list
Adelaide - aging as well
Bombers - Weak list. Flat out in NAB Cup
Richmond - diabolically weak list
Melbourne - Nearly as bad
Freo - Inconsistent - will try to go the knuckle.

Swannies virtually have their two most important players as new recruits given how much they played (fit) last year - Hall and Kennelly. Also Goodes may as well have not played the first half of 2007. I have big hopes for "Fridge" Barlow ("the white Goodes") to take the comp by storm as well.

Also don't forget that the aim of keeping these young guys in the ressies for so long is so that when they make the ones they are ready. How many people thought that Lukey Ablett was no good because he played in the twos for so long?

I'm confident.

Gee it's easy to be dismissive of other clubs while crowing about our stagnant, aging list.

Carlton just haven't got Judd, they had 5 years of early picks. Gibbs, Murphy, Kruezer, Judd et al are going to cause some headaches this year. Fevola won the Coleman medal when they were at their crappiest.....just imagine the delivery he'll get now. Not saying they're gonna win a flag or anything, but they'll be big improvers IMO.

West Coast gone? They were without Cousins last year...and Judd was restricted with his groin. They still have a very strong list and some quality midfielders....Kerr, Selwood, Priddis, Rosa, Embley....

[ROK Lobster]

I wouldn't say Brisbane have an aging list. They have a relatively young list.

It's also fair to say it isn't getting any younger.

[ernie koala]

Bloody oath Im one eyed always will be, always have been.

How sadly limited.

[originalswan]

Bias aside, the reasons I see the Swans improving are as follows:

Existing Personnel: Players such as Bazza, Kennely, LRT, J. Bolton, McVeigh, Goodes (in the first half of the season) and Ablett had a season they would rather forget (whether it was injury or form or both), I simply can't see them having as little an impact as they had last year. Their iincreased output alone will see a marked improvement in the Swans.

New Personnel: Players such as Bird, Jack, Moore and Mattner look like they will have a bit of game time and put pressure on the existing players to perform.

Game Plan: Surely the coaches have learned a few things from their continued lack of success against the Crows and recently the Magpies. Just as Malthouse worked the Swans out I think the tables could be turned with some fine tuning.

Finally how good would it be if Everitt comes back rejuvenated and the miraculous happens with Malceski. OK I have been somewhat optimistic in my assessment but that's what a new season normally does to me.

For what it's worth I predict a finish in the range of 4-6

[Robbo]

Brisbane have some of the most exciting youngsters in the game. They are on the up and are a genuine top 8 contender now IMO.

West Coke will struggle a little but they still have a lot of depth. Wouldn't surprise me if they still made the 4.

Freo will be a force this year. Bookmark it.

[TheGrimReaper]

I wouldn't say Brisbane have an aging list. They have a relatively young list.

[The Big Cat]

Getting back to the thread, I think that we will do better than many expect. Why? Because outside of Geelong, Hawthorn and St Kilda I can't see any other sides being certainties for the 8.

Eagles - gone without Judd and Cousins
Port - Last year flattered them.
Kangas - ditto
Bullies - Still too small
Carlton - Judd's not enough - no defence
Collingwood - Retirements hurt - especially Clement
Brisbane - Aging list
Adelaide - aging as well
Bombers - Weak list. Flat out in NAB Cup
Richmond - diabolically weak list
Melbourne - Nearly as bad
Freo - Inconsistent - will try to go the knuckle.

Swannies virtually have their two most important players as new recruits given how much they played (fit) last year - Hall and Kennelly. Also Goodes may as well have not played the first half of 2007. I have big hopes for "Fridge" Barlow ("the white Goodes") to take the comp by storm as well.

Also don't forget that the aim of keeping these young guys in the ressies for so long is so that when they make the ones they are ready. How many people thought that Lukey Ablett was no good because he played in the twos for so long?

I'm confident.

[swantastic]

If they play crap they deserve it in my book. After that St Kilda draw at the dome I got down near the race and went home feeling like I'd walked across the Simpson desert.

Nothing deserves being spat on especially your own team no matter how bad they play.

In all my years of playing soccer i have been spat on lots of times,some times i retaliated and got sent off other times i didnt.

This is going to sound racist,but in my experience the ones who do it the most are of ethnic persuasion.

[Nico]

Swannies, I don't believe for one second that our players don't try their hardest, but I am in the ORB camp in that if players are not good enough or their form warrants dropping them, you must start to turn the group over.

It seems there is almost a fear that if a couple of new players are introduced (that is take a punt on them) and the move initially doesn't work the coaching staff and selection committee will get an absolute pizzling for it. Hence Jarrod Moore got 5 seconds on the ground against the Saints in 2007, then never to be seen again.

Again J Bolton admitted he was unfit in 2007 and didn't work hard enough on the track (and he obviously fooled everyone at the club) and his form showed it, and yes many on RWO bagged him for his form, yet got picked every week regardless of form.

I think maybe in 2007 they thought that the same group might just get them to a GF again and were hoping against hope that it would just happen in the finals, but alas we were all disappointed.