Which team will be the first?

[beameup]

Off topic a bit, but following the argument: does anyone know how many schools play AFL, and is there a viable competition at that level? I haven't lived in Sydney for a while, but even twenty years ago there were rumblings about big-bodied Islanders and others who were simply not a fair match-up for other kids. One huge advantage of AFL is that there is something for all body types, and it's the grass roots level the AFL should be aiming at as well as importing another top level team. Or has soccer got in first at that level?
I hope GWS thrives. A local rivalry will be good for us in the end, and in the long run good for AFL. But the AFL administration has to be in it for the long haul. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Fitzroy situation develop with the Kangaroos, with a similar outcome, the new teams to be the beneficiaries.

Cannot tell you the numbers of schools that play but it is substantial in a lesser sort of way. Paul Kelly Cup for Year 5 and 6 is very popular. Also selections to go to regional events. The Swans Cup is an u15 school based comp and also an open comp. a fair few play it and brings teams form outside Sydney. Nepean High did pretty well a few years ago.

I know teachers, parents and kids in primary school absolutely love the development days and training sessions as well as games. It is far from a lost cause but it will take a generation for kids to take to it athen bring their kids into it. Best game by far in terms of everyone can play. Just give it time.

One of the reasons GWS will work is that there are a million AFL supporters but only 100K Swans supporters. If you live in W Sydney Swans are interesting but have never shown any interest in the west. Live and play in the eastern suburbs with a brave few veturing to north side and Cronulla. Have to use Navman to get to Homebush as do many of the welded on fans. This is a team for the west and I think the level of support will eventually surprise a few. Imageine if the first team to lose to Giants was a big white bird. More likely to be a striped cat though.

Sheedy is right and the second team will be the making of AFL in Sydney as it will grow the fan base

[Big Al]

[I share that perception - I think there's little doubt that the AFL are trying to take on the NRL squarely in their own backyard and its being seen by many as an attempt at a hostile takeover of sorts. That's going to annoy a lot of NRL supporters to the point that they'd turn off AFL. I think its already doing harm in Sydney to a certain extent.

I don't think thats what the AFL are trying to do. (They only have to look at the history of RL to know that's a foolish thing to do - RL thrives on adversity and comes out stronger each time) However the fact that the perception is there means they have a heck of a lot of work to do.

[jono2707]

[QUOTE=Big Al;519187]There is already a perception (i don't agree with it but it's certainly there) that the AFL and GWS are targeting and want to hurt the NRL.QUOTE]

I share that perception - I think there's little doubt that the AFL are trying to take on the NRL squarely in their own backyard and its being seen by many as an attempt at a hostile takeover of sorts. That's going to annoy a lot of NRL supporters to the point that they'd turn off AFL. I think its already doing harm in Sydney to a certain extent.

[Yuri H]

I hope GWS thrives. A local rivalry will be good for us in the end, and in the long run good for AFL. But the AFL administration has to be in it for the long haul. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Fitzroy situation develop with the Kangaroos, with a similar outcome, the new teams to be the beneficiaries.

I agree. And as for a Fitzroyish scenario, if it winds up as a GWS/Kangaroos merger and it means that stupid "Giants" name goes bye-bye, I'm all for it.

[dimelb]

Off topic a bit, but following the argument: does anyone know how many schools play AFL, and is there a viable competition at that level? I haven't lived in Sydney for a while, but even twenty years ago there were rumblings about big-bodied Islanders and others who were simply not a fair match-up for other kids. One huge advantage of AFL is that there is something for all body types, and it's the grass roots level the AFL should be aiming at as well as importing another top level team. Or has soccer got in first at that level?
I hope GWS thrives. A local rivalry will be good for us in the end, and in the long run good for AFL. But the AFL administration has to be in it for the long haul. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Fitzroy situation develop with the Kangaroos, with a similar outcome, the new teams to be the beneficiaries.

[Big Al]

Jono, I agree that the market isn't there to support both teams which is why I was opposed to the 2nd teams formation in the first place. However the AFL are not going to go back now so we need to find some way for it to work because failure will set back AFL in this city to a point where the Swans won't be able to grow and will actually go backwards.

Living in Western Sydney and being heavily involved in the NRL I have a grave fear that if GWS don't get it right the NRL people who are sympathetic to the Swans (there are a lots) will abandon AFL all together. There is already a perception (i don't agree with it but it's certainly there) that the AFL and GWS are targeting and want to hurt the NRL. I've had people say to me that in protest at GWS they will no longer watch Swans matches either live or on Tele. If this permeates through the casual follower of the AFL then the Swans and GWS are in trouble.

It needs to work and it needs to work properly because I can't contemplate the ramifiactions for the AFL in getting this wrong.

[agro]

The Felafel would hit the fan if GWS beat Collingwood first up.

LOL! Al, That is pizz funny..... and Meddy Eggwire would be wearing it.

Just saw on their website that GWS have a membersip of 8184 at the moment. Probably many are friends and family of the players and staff. But how many members do NRL clubs in Sydney have generally?

[jono2707]

Not rubbish Annie. Far from it.

I'm talking about AFL suffering in this city if GWS fails which will have a negative effect on the Swans. Despite your "dark days behind us" rhetoric we are no where near strong enough to survive a large downturn in support for AFL in this city. We are not a financial powerhouse and compared to other clubs our membership base is small. It's one of the reasons the club is desperate not to bottom out because they know they will struggle if they do.

Bottom line is that GWS needs to work. You don't have support them (I will simply because I get to see more AFL each year) but be assured that wishing their demise as a club will be just cutting your nose off to spite your face.

I disagree with this and side with Annie on this one - it's a very good subject for considered, mature debate though.

My feelings are that GWS wont pick up many new AFL fans in Sydney but will instead erode the fanbase of the Swans. One thing we always had going for us was a city that was generally united for the Swans, and even if many were fair weather fans, being a one-city team still had its advantages. Whether GWS are successful on the field or not, there wont be a mass conversion of fans from the NRL to the AFL, so the majority of the fans that GWS do pick up will be AFL fans already. The majority of these I'd reckon would have previously had some level of support for the Swans.

There are plenty of people in Sydney who are AFL fans that don't support the Swans, normally because they have remained with their Melbourne/Adelaide/Perth team allegiances since moving here. If the Swans didn't get them to switch, I wouldnt think GWS would either. I think the AFL is greatly underestimating the people of western Sydney if they think they'll switch from whatever football code they currently follow to latch on to this new nothing team with no real heart in western Sydney.

Just as we might not be strong enough to survive a prolonged downturn in AFL in this city, we also are not strong enough to share this relatively small market with another team. I hope they don't survive, and I hope that its not an either them or us type situation as I currently fear....

Still its good to hear and consider both sides of the argument in this case.

[Big Al]

The Felafel would hit the fan if GWS beat Collingwood first up.

[agro]

Yuri H: Mate, I would actually go to the game if I was garranteed they were going to stomp Collingwood, (or hawthorn). The look of rage, shame and disgust on Meddy Eggwire's or Keff Jennett's face.....gold!
Laughingnome: Some interesting stats there. It is amazing those teams actually won some games in their first year.
SwanSational74: I think you may be right, Richmond or maybe North Melbourne (if they are still around).

It would be funny to see them beat Essendon; Sheeds could probably retire and ride off into the sunset after claiming Hird's coaching scalp. One thing about GWS in Sydney (and Melbourne) is that they are not being ignored. They generate more publicity than many established clubs (anyone heard from Freo?) and they haven't even played a single AFL game.

[SwanSational74]

I think Richmond will probably be the first Victorian based team to fall to GWS in 2012.

[laughingnome]

First Games of the Newbies:

1987 - MCG - Nth Melbourne 15.14 104 lost to Brisbane Bears 19.23 137
1987 - Subiaco - West Coast 20.13 133 beat Richmond 16.23 119

1991 - Football Park - Adelaide 24.11 155 beat Hawthorn 9.15 69

1995 - MCG - Richmond 12.18 90 beat Fremantle 12.13 85

1997 - MCG - Collingwood 26.10 166 beat Port Adelaide 13.9 87
1997 - Football Park - Adelaide 20.12 132 beat Brisbane Lions 14.12 96

Fremantle notched their first win in round 3 at the Whitten Oval when they beat Fitzroy by 43 points.
Brisbane Lions thrashed St Kilda by 97 points at the Gabba in round 2.
Port Adelaide had to wait till round 3 when they beat Geelong at Football Park by 39 points.

So recent history suggests that the newbies will start poor but make some big scalps in their first year.

[Big Al]

Ah rubbish Al and Rogue.

If they're losing and we're winning - it'll be death of them, not us.
We've put our darkest years behind us.
It's time for Sheeds to see that the lights are off and no one's home.

Not rubbish Annie. Far from it.

I'm talking about AFL suffering in this city if GWS fails which will have a negative effect on the Swans. Despite your "dark days behind us" rhetoric we are no where near strong enough to survive a large downturn in support for AFL in this city. We are not a financial powerhouse and compared to other clubs our membership base is small. It's one of the reasons the club is desperate not to bottom out because they know they will struggle if they do.

Bottom line is that GWS needs to work. You don't have support them (I will simply because I get to see more AFL each year) but be assured that wishing their demise as a club will be just cutting your nose off to spite your face.

[Yuri H]

Wouldn't it be great if their first victory was thumping an overconfident, unsuspecting Collingwood?

... well, as long as we beat them too.

[AnnieH]

Ah rubbish Al and Rogue.

If they're losing and we're winning - it'll be death of them, not us.
We've put our darkest years behind us.
It's time for Sheeds to see that the lights are off and no one's home.