Ryan O'Keefe heading south?

[Legs Akimbo]

Also, despite the focus on the likes of Buddy and Roughhead, their current success also relies heavily on the input from Mitchell (late 2nd round pick), Bateman (3rd round + draft pick), and Osbourne, Sewell and Campbell (all ex-rookies). Good players have always been found and developed from all ranges of the draft and I believe that will continue to be the case.

Hawthorn looked at their list and decided it did not contain the material required for a tilt at the flag. Clarkson drew a line through the guys he thought were clogging their list and cleaned them out, realising that the consquence would be a trip to the foot of the ladder. This, as much as the high draft picks, was the recipe for current success. The point you make about the various low round pick-up just emphasises it. It is not about bottoming out and tanking, but the velocity of list turn-over.

I think Hawthorn have already done enough to show the formula can work. I emphasise, the formula is not about draft picks but list management.

To win a flag you have to form a playing group,with stability and talent. So by definition, clubs must vacillate between periods of high list turnover and low turnover to foster stability. History shows that stable teams win flags. The draft is an aside (albeit an important one), which can accelerate formation of a stable list, at a price.

Each player on the list needs to be judged according to his place in the next flag. This may include being a 'bridge' to avoid decimation of the club culture and education of the younger cohort. This is the mistake Carlton made - not retaining guys who were the heart and soul of the club in their relentless quest for youth. I am sure that is why Clarkson retained Vandeburg and then appointed him as Captain. Smart guy Addis.

IMHO, we were remiss in not accelerating the list turnover in 2007 and may well make the same mistake this year. Consequently, 2010 is still a potential disaster year for us.

Sheedy made a similar mistake at Essendon by retaining a host of favoured fringe players, top-up drafting (remember his reputation for turning @@@@ into shinola?) and playing an outdated style of footy. Sounds familiar?

I hope I am wrong, given the Gold Coasters situation.

[dimelb]

One of the most sensible posts I've seen in a while, and a very persuasive argument. We have had the benefit of stability for a while now, but we are IMO on the cusp of the cull. If not this year (and there are reasons to persist with e.g. Leo, MOL, Kirk) then probably next year must see it happen.

[#73]

It is reported in media outlets that Ryan O'Keefe may be heading to a Victorian club. He has been offered a 4 year contract with the Swans but some Melbourne clubs have offered more dollars. The articles raise the possibility of O'Keefe being traded for a 1st round draft pick which could then be used as part of a deal to secure Daniel Kerr. O'Keefe or Kerr ? What do supporters think.

Whilst I shouldn't credit this question with a response, I AM in a generous mood, so I will:

O'Keefe.

You know, loyalty is a diminishing quality in football. I'd rather hang onto O' Keefe for another 4 years than sell out to a demented douche-bag like Kerr.

It really worries me that so many 'supporters' are quick to off-load our premiership boys. Especially when some of them are playing the best footy of their careers. It's bad enough we lost Schneids and Demps. There's no way I'd want to see one of the hardest working players in the comp go too.

[CureTheSane]

Whilst I shouldn't credit this question with a response, I AM in a generous mood, so I will:

O'Keefe.

You know, loyalty is a diminishing quality in football. I'd rather hang onto O' Keefe for another 4 years than sell out to a demented douche-bag like Kerr.

It really worries me that so many 'supporters' are quick to off-load our premiership boys. Especially when some of them are playing the best footy of their careers. It's bad enough we lost Schneids and Demps. There's no way I'd want to see one of the hardest working players in the comp go too.

I agree with the sentiment, but unfortunately football has lost a lot of loyalty.
I'd like to think that players are desperate to stay at the team they love, but in the end it's their job.

I don't mind losing players who aren't performing.
Even premiership players.
ROK is performing.
So is Hall.
To me over half of the team should not even be considered for a trade.
And they won't.
The couching staff know who they will be keeping and who they think might go.

[Lakeside]

Hawthorn looked at their list and decided it did not contain the material required for a tilt at the flag. Clarkson drew a line through the guys he thought were clogging their list and cleaned them out, realising that the consquence would be a trip to the foot of the ladder. This, as much as the high draft picks, was the recipe for current success. The point you make about the various low round pick-up just emphasises it. It is not about bottoming out and tanking, but the velocity of list turn-over.

I think Hawthorn have already done enough to show the formula can work. I emphasise, the formula is not about draft picks but list management.

To win a flag you have to form a playing group,with stability and talent. So by definition, clubs must vacillate between periods of high list turnover and low turnover to foster stability. History shows that stable teams win flags. The draft is an aside (albeit an important one), which can accelerate formation of a stable list, at a price.

Each player on the list needs to be judged according to his place in the next flag. This may include being a 'bridge' to avoid decimation of the club culture and education of the younger cohort. This is the mistake Carlton made - not retaining guys who were the heart and soul of the club in their relentless quest for youth. I am sure that is why Clarkson retained Vandeburg and then appointed him as Captain. Smart guy Addis.

IMHO, we were remiss in not accelerating the list turnover in 2007 and may well make the same mistake this year. Consequently, 2010 is still a potential disaster year for us.

Sheedy made a similar mistake at Essendon by retaining a host of favoured fringe players, top-up drafting (remember his reputation for turning @@@@ into shinola?) and playing an outdated style of footy. Sounds familiar?

I hope I am wrong, given the Gold Coasters situation.

So if Hawthorn do win the flag you will deem 10 years of constant failure (ok then 4 years under the clarkson regime but the "rebuilding pahse" at the hawks started around the Judge years) and hanging around the bottom 4 for draft picks to be the correct model for list management?

I think its an indication of all things wrong if the hawks do win a flag and it has come during a long rebuiling phase.

[Captain]

From purely a value for money perspective, now is the time to trade him. His value is at an all time high and would be highly doubtful that we could get more for him in the future.

[Kanga]

Would love to have O'Keefe at North.... Admittedly he struggled a little this year, but still a great contested mark and seems to play 'tall'. True matchwinner on his day.

Not sure who you would want from our list for him though...

[Plugger46]

Admittedly he struggled a little this year

What??
Are you taking the piss?

[law78]

Would love to have O'Keefe at North.... Admittedly he struggled a little this year, but still a great contested mark and seems to play 'tall'. True matchwinner on his day.

Not sure who you would want from our list for him though...

Good Point.

Not sure if there is anyone at North that we would want. Don't know your list that well, but I'm confident in stating that your on ballers are similar to ours when it comes to speed.

[Kanga]

Good Point.

Not sure if there is anyone at North that we would want. Don't know your list that well, but I'm confident in stating that your on ballers are similar to ours when it comes to speed.

Pretty sure there is no one!!...... O'Keefe is like a Rolls Royce version of Corey Jones.

[Legs Akimbo]

So if Hawthorn do win the flag you will deem 10 years of constant failure (ok then 4 years under the clarkson regime but the "rebuilding pahse" at the hawks started around the Judge years) and hanging around the bottom 4 for draft picks to be the correct model for list management?

I think its an indication of all things wrong if the hawks do win a flag and it has come during a long rebuiling phase.

Clearly hanging around the bottom for any duration is poor list management. Good list management is correct assessment of the state of the list and whether it is premiership material. If the list is stuffed, start turning it over. if this list is okay, then trade to get a winning list. Either way you may slide or go up. Going nowhere is the problem.

If you look at it probabilistically, Hawthorn's last flag was in 1991, so 17 years vis 18 teams in comp. We waited 70 years.

[goswannie14]

O'Keefe could fly south next winter - realfooty.com.au

That's it - he has to go!

He's obviously never been totally committed to the Swans then.